謝金河:台積電短期陷入盤整 鴻海將扮要 - 股票
By Mia
at 2021-03-17T17:23
at 2021-03-17T17:23
Table of Contents
原文標題:
謝金河:台積電短期陷入盤整 鴻海將扮要角 (請勿刪減原文標題)
原文連結:
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3470013 (請善用縮網址工具)
發布時間:
(請以原文網頁/報紙之發布時間為準)
2021/03/17 16:38
原文內容:
〔記者吳佳穎/台北報導〕台股今(17)日收跌97.34點至16215.82點;財信傳媒董事長謝金河分析,近期台股在萬五、萬六盤整很正常,去年台積電、台達電、聯發科、聯電、鴻海等5檔股票貢獻台股指數約75%,但近期上述5檔股票,除鴻海,其餘4檔股票均大幅回檔,「今年這5檔股票仍將扮演關鍵角色,但在台積電回檔時,鴻海扮演的角色會更重要。」
謝金河今日出席2021財訊財富管理大獎頒獎典禮,會中受訪時指出,年初台積電漲上679元,殖利率與當前美債殖利率相差無幾,因此壓縮投資價值, 且去年台積電股價約200多快,年初上攻679元,「幅度非常驚人、乖離也很大,適時整理是必要的,預估台積電上半年可能就在這裡。」
此外,去年台積電、台達電、聯發科、聯電、鴻海等5檔股票貢獻台股指數約75%,但近期台達電從325回到284元,聯發科從千金股回到908,聯電則從59.4回到48元,這些回檔都很大。
但謝金河也認為,「今年這5檔股票仍將扮演關鍵角色」,其中鴻海為近期5檔股票唯一創新高,目前市場開始評價鴻海未來,過去郭董時代鴻海本益比約10倍,現任董事長劉揚偉則讓鴻海經營透明化,本益比提升到15倍左右,「如果下一步鴻海在MIH、電動車能有進一步發展,毛利率曾從3~4%提高到10%,鴻海可能複製台達電本益比從15倍拉上30倍的路徑。」
此外,近期美債殖利率彈升,引發市場震盪:謝金河分析,美債殖利率攀升反映市場對於疫情過後景氣復甦看法,目前資金慢慢回到原物料,未來要觀察景氣復甦是否與通膨畫上等號,但日前美財長葉倫公開表示,「現階段物價上漲不等於通膨會發生。」
謝金河指出,自2007年來,原物料價格一路跌了十年,目前在景氣復甦徵兆下,物價蠢蠢欲動,每十年公債殖利率上升,反映物價上漲,未來美債殖利率若衝上2%,「市場將面臨更大壓力,這段時間要保持高度警戒」,觀察通膨預期疑慮是否持續上升,現階段美債殖利率停在1.5%上下,提供市場重新審視風險性資產的投資價值的好時機。
心得/評論: ※必需填寫滿20字
大師認為台積電上半年就在這盤整了
大家可以去做別的了
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