謝金河:台灣準備擁抱初升段 - 股票
By John
at 2020-06-13T10:55
at 2020-06-13T10:55
Table of Contents
https://www.wealth.com.tw/home/articles/26096
謝金河:台灣準備擁抱初升段
日前應黃日燦大律師之邀,到他召集的「台灣產業創生平台」,與近20位國內知名的企業
界領袖餐敘,不過他說「沒有白吃的晚餐」,要我談一個題目─「台灣產業的後天」,我
心想,我也不是通靈人士,怎麼有慧眼看到台灣的後天。多數人能看到明天就不錯了,於
是,我把題目改成「人生的大浪與轉折」,也等於把台灣30年來的過去、現在與未來做了
一個趨勢導引。蟄伏了30年的台灣經驗,為什麼又在這一刻出現轉機?
中國經濟邁入拐點 恐將上演大泡沫戲碼
1980年代,台灣的政經體系都受到十分巨大的衝擊,在蔣經國主政的年代,黨外運動如火
如荼,大家要求解除黨禁、報禁,在內外交逼下,台灣完成重大的民主改革。在經濟上,
台灣迎來一個錢潮淹腳目的年代。1985年十信風暴爆發,台股最慘跌至636點,而那時,
美日簽下《廣場協議》,日圓步上大幅升值之路,台幣就跟著日圓緩步踏上升值之路。(
延伸閱讀:習近平臉腫腫...李克強洩天機:中國6億低收入戶,每月僅賺千元人民幣)
我記得在1986年,邱永漢先生在《財訊》的社論上寫了「無論景氣好壞,股市與房市將繼
續漲升!」那時台股正從千點起跑,房地產在低檔,我看到社論時,感覺非常不可思議,
景氣那麼差,又加上十信風暴帶來的擠兌,而立委蔡辰洲引領立法院13兄弟會縱橫議場,
台灣政經情勢只有一個「亂」字形容。沒想到台幣升值帶來熱錢效應,短短幾年,台股居
然奔向萬點,房地產出現至少10倍的大漲,這是我踏出校園,步入社會目睹的一個大時代
。當年日本的日經指數從6000多點漲到38957點,日本人買遍世界,一直到泡沫吹破為止
。
1989年是重要的轉折年代,中國發生六四天安門事件,國際輿論都看衰中國,但卻給台商
逢低切入中國的大好機會。1990年代初期,鴻海、康師傅、旺旺、寶成工業、正新輪胎等
都在中國另起爐灶,而這也是它們建立龐大基業的起點。
我記得1990年台股炒到12682點前夕,三商銀股價炒到千元以上,1家三商銀市值居然超過
香港匯豐銀行,很多公司股價高不可攀,像華國飯店市值一度逾500億元,如果把手上股
票賣光,可能可以再蓋10座華國飯店,台灣吹起這麼大的泡沫,當然給敏感企業人士「西
進」的機會。
那時,中國經濟經歷了1978年鄧小平改革開放,到了1992年鄧小平發表南巡講話,中國經
濟開始從初升段邁向主升段,在江澤民、胡錦濤接近「走資」的領導下,國際資本大量湧
入中國,每年進入中國的FDI(外國直接投資)都超過千億美元,中國搖身變成世界工廠
,而且中國挾人口優勢,在2001年加入WTO(世界貿易組織)之後,中國經濟又進一步脫
胎換骨,阿里巴巴、騰訊等紛紛崛起,這是中國經濟的大浪。
能夠抓到台灣1980年代巨浪,又承接從1989年起的30年中國經濟巨浪,這是個人財富百倍
、萬倍暴增的時代。從六四事件之後,中國迎來20年快速發展機遇,不過這個過度「走資
」,也帶給2012年習近平以「反貪腐」掃蕩政敵,建立起集權領導的空前機會。
如果說江澤民與胡錦濤的兩任20年是中國經濟的主升段,那麼2012年習近平的反貪腐,可
能是中國經濟的末升段,這當中我們要看中國現在面臨的經濟調整與轉折。首先是中國經
濟已從低基期走向高基期,例如,1990年代鴻海郭董到廣東深圳龍華設廠,工人平均工資
大約300~350元人民幣,如今已攀升到5000~7000元。在工資、地價等生產要素成本不斷上
漲的壓力下,中國本來是世界工廠,現在企業紛紛尋找更廉價的生產基地。(延伸閱讀:
中國觀察》一場防疫大戰 中南海檯面下的微妙權鬥)
二是中國招商態度的改變。1990年代起,中國奮力「招商引資」,各省市首長、書記賣力
招商。我在2000年前後,看到一位企業界大老闆在他的企業總部,迎接南京市前市委書記
楊衛澤的晚宴,那晚排名台灣前50大企業的老闆幾乎都到齊,可謂盛況空前。到了習近平
反貪腐的年代,現在連應酬交誼都受到限制,中國招商的熱情熄火了,台商地位也大不如
前,大嘆不如歸去的,更是大有人在,這是投資心態的重大轉折。
1場疫情、1齣科技爭霸 中國吃足苦頭
三是世界局勢的大轉變。過去30年全世界幫忙中國發展經濟,西方世界原以為中國經濟發
達後,會逐漸走上民主化,成為世界和平重要成員。2001年美國引中國加入WTO,這是很
重要的初衷。沒想到2017年習近平大喊「中國夢」,高喊「厲害了,我的國」、「中國製
造2025」、「一帶一路」,大家終於發現習近平正引領中國走上霸權之路,而這也印證了
美國國防部顧問白邦瑞在《百年馬拉松》一書中,不斷對西方世界提出警告。
2017年,川普進入白宮,2018年3月美中貿易戰開打,美國與中國從原本的夥伴關係,先
是變成競爭的態勢,這次因武漢肺炎疫情已到翻臉為敵的地步,美中攤牌可能改變未來世
界的命運,也是中國經濟重大的轉捩點。最顯著的是,過去30年中國帶來全球投資巨大機
會,世界各國巨資前進中國,中國經濟大起,更是幾千年來所僅見。
但是國家命運的轉折,也都在這時發生,首先是中國經濟快速奔馳30年,全國經濟產值已
超過100兆元人民幣以上,中國經濟超英德、趕日,現在直追美國,但中國龐大經濟體來
自房地產增值,含金量並不高,這次美中冷戰,美國對華為祭出半導體限購令,就讓中國
吃足了苦頭,現在希望以舉國之力發展半導體產業。(延伸閱讀:5G基金滿手好牌 怎麼
挑?配置從國家到個股都有學問)
其實最嚴厲的挑戰在後頭,這些年,中國力撐經濟,無限量超支擴大信用,負債比率頻創
新高,國企及民企債務不斷攀高,雖然國家仍有高度掌控力,但是累積太久,撐得太大的
泡沫終有一天會像日本般爆破,這可能是中國未來面臨的最大挑戰。
還有中國經濟基期高,招商引資早已成為過去式,過去魚貫進入中國的外資爭相逃竄,這
次疫情更讓歐洲國家必須選邊站,每一個國家都自省生產基地不能完全放在中國,疫情又
會加重一次產業大遷徙,這個大遷徙當然包括台商。1990年代台商幾乎以上花轎般的心情
歡欣投資中國,在中國經濟奔馳的年代,台商其實是最大受益者;這回全世界外資開始撤
離中國,其實從美中貿易戰起,台商已加速離開中國,這兩年單是登記回台加碼投資台灣
的金額已突破1兆元,台商在東協市場的布局深廣,更是大家想像不到的。
蟄伏30年將再起 國際大咖搶加碼台灣
1990年代台灣經濟反轉向下,台商資金快速流向中國,企業不投資台灣,只投資中國,當
然造成產業空洞化、人才出走、低薪窘境。現在這個情勢倒轉過來,中國經濟基期高,台
灣蟄伏30年,正好是逢低進場的好機會。再加上美中冷戰,美國全力加持台灣,過去在美
中夥伴關係的架構下,台灣慘遭邊緣化,這回扭轉情勢,巨變就從中產生。(延伸閱讀:
業者搶拉貨囤庫存 25檔5G新基建概念股,誰最有料?)
今年台灣防疫有成,建立了國家主體意識,人民對國家有信心;另一個是全球貨幣競相貶
值,台幣卻屹立不搖,兌美元一直挺在30元以下,台灣似乎又重回1980年代台幣升值的順
境中。此外,台灣產業逐漸擺脫「毛3~4」的代工時代,逐漸形成高附加價值聚落,像眾
多IC設計公司毛利率都4成起跳。還有美國500大企業像是亞馬遜、谷歌、微軟、蘋果、臉
書都加碼投資台灣,而台灣這些年全力扶植的離岸風力發電產業也開始起跑。
從這個巨大情勢轉折,台灣尚未大起,但已默默從逆境好轉中。兩年前為了形容台灣的好
,我說「台灣經濟躺著也會好」,現在我們迎接另一個新浪,記得千萬不要再唱衰台灣!
評論:
即使前幾天美股大跌1800多點
謝金河認為「台灣經濟躺著也會好」,台股正要開始「初升段」
千萬不要唱衰台灣!
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By Lily
at 2021-05-08T04:27
at 2021-05-08T04:27
By Dinah
at 2021-05-12T15:38
at 2021-05-12T15:38
By Lydia
at 2021-05-16T21:26
at 2021-05-16T21:26
By Cara
at 2021-05-18T02:18
at 2021-05-18T02:18
By Skylar Davis
at 2021-05-19T02:34
at 2021-05-19T02:34
By Yedda
at 2021-05-23T02:02
at 2021-05-23T02:02
By William
at 2021-05-25T18:11
at 2021-05-25T18:11
By Elma
at 2021-05-29T20:46
at 2021-05-29T20:46
By Olive
at 2021-06-02T21:06
at 2021-06-02T21:06
By Ophelia
at 2021-06-03T04:16
at 2021-06-03T04:16
By George
at 2021-06-05T11:16
at 2021-06-05T11:16
By Annie
at 2021-06-05T17:27
at 2021-06-05T17:27
By Yedda
at 2021-06-08T08:33
at 2021-06-08T08:33
By Lauren
at 2021-06-11T15:19
at 2021-06-11T15:19
By Olga
at 2021-06-14T18:43
at 2021-06-14T18:43
By Thomas
at 2021-06-18T12:37
at 2021-06-18T12:37
By Frederic
at 2021-06-23T05:50
at 2021-06-23T05:50
By Agnes
at 2021-06-24T12:00
at 2021-06-24T12:00
By Brianna
at 2021-06-28T01:59
at 2021-06-28T01:59
By Michael
at 2021-06-29T10:49
at 2021-06-29T10:49
By Margaret
at 2021-06-29T17:18
at 2021-06-29T17:18
By Tracy
at 2021-07-03T04:23
at 2021-07-03T04:23
By Linda
at 2021-07-04T14:02
at 2021-07-04T14:02
By Hedy
at 2021-07-08T23:00
at 2021-07-08T23:00
By Jessica
at 2021-07-12T19:22
at 2021-07-12T19:22
By Bethany
at 2021-07-16T21:39
at 2021-07-16T21:39
By Olivia
at 2021-07-19T11:30
at 2021-07-19T11:30
By Kyle
at 2021-07-20T20:29
at 2021-07-20T20:29
By Victoria
at 2021-07-23T21:20
at 2021-07-23T21:20
By Wallis
at 2021-07-28T06:19
at 2021-07-28T06:19
By Mary
at 2021-08-02T04:43
at 2021-08-02T04:43
By Carolina Franco
at 2021-08-05T18:54
at 2021-08-05T18:54
By Quanna
at 2021-08-09T01:18
at 2021-08-09T01:18
By Olivia
at 2021-08-12T00:47
at 2021-08-12T00:47
By Zora
at 2021-08-16T21:53
at 2021-08-16T21:53
By Frederica
at 2021-08-20T20:26
at 2021-08-20T20:26
By Eartha
at 2021-08-22T17:49
at 2021-08-22T17:49
By Quintina
at 2021-08-23T01:48
at 2021-08-23T01:48
By Jessica
at 2021-08-24T04:58
at 2021-08-24T04:58
By Suhail Hany
at 2021-08-25T07:14
at 2021-08-25T07:14
By Isla
at 2021-08-27T14:19
at 2021-08-27T14:19
By Barb Cronin
at 2021-08-31T22:44
at 2021-08-31T22:44
By Sarah
at 2021-09-03T00:35
at 2021-09-03T00:35
By Lily
at 2021-09-05T04:50
at 2021-09-05T04:50
By Susan
at 2021-09-07T01:03
at 2021-09-07T01:03
By Valerie
at 2021-09-09T07:59
at 2021-09-09T07:59
By Olive
at 2021-09-10T16:13
at 2021-09-10T16:13
By Bennie
at 2021-09-15T10:32
at 2021-09-15T10:32
By Hedy
at 2021-09-15T12:19
at 2021-09-15T12:19
By Leila
at 2021-09-18T17:32
at 2021-09-18T17:32
By Bennie
at 2021-09-21T15:05
at 2021-09-21T15:05
By Ula
at 2021-09-23T20:50
at 2021-09-23T20:50
By Mary
at 2021-09-26T09:19
at 2021-09-26T09:19
By Rachel
at 2021-09-26T20:59
at 2021-09-26T20:59
By Tracy
at 2021-09-28T19:13
at 2021-09-28T19:13
By Oscar
at 2021-10-01T10:47
at 2021-10-01T10:47
By Sierra Rose
at 2021-10-06T09:14
at 2021-10-06T09:14
By Caitlin
at 2021-10-09T13:05
at 2021-10-09T13:05
By Olga
at 2021-10-12T15:47
at 2021-10-12T15:47
By Catherine
at 2021-10-14T00:10
at 2021-10-14T00:10
By Anonymous
at 2021-10-15T06:46
at 2021-10-15T06:46
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2021-10-16T18:46
at 2021-10-16T18:46
By Christine
at 2021-10-17T05:29
at 2021-10-17T05:29
By Gilbert
at 2021-10-18T03:40
at 2021-10-18T03:40
By Adele
at 2021-10-19T06:14
at 2021-10-19T06:14
By Una
at 2021-10-21T22:10
at 2021-10-21T22:10
By Connor
at 2021-10-22T09:10
at 2021-10-22T09:10
By Sarah
at 2021-10-27T03:22
at 2021-10-27T03:22
By Hedwig
at 2021-10-27T22:18
at 2021-10-27T22:18
By Frederica
at 2021-10-29T05:45
at 2021-10-29T05:45
By Madame
at 2021-11-02T06:23
at 2021-11-02T06:23
By Lucy
at 2021-11-05T00:58
at 2021-11-05T00:58
By Olga
at 2021-11-09T06:28
at 2021-11-09T06:28
By Faithe
at 2021-11-13T00:53
at 2021-11-13T00:53
By Eartha
at 2021-11-17T22:17
at 2021-11-17T22:17
By Robert
at 2021-11-20T01:48
at 2021-11-20T01:48
By Tom
at 2021-11-24T00:04
at 2021-11-24T00:04
By Christine
at 2021-11-27T01:39
at 2021-11-27T01:39
By Quintina
at 2021-11-30T22:02
at 2021-11-30T22:02
By Frederica
at 2021-12-03T23:36
at 2021-12-03T23:36
By Isla
at 2021-12-04T07:58
at 2021-12-04T07:58
By Callum
at 2021-12-04T14:59
at 2021-12-04T14:59
By Charlotte
at 2021-12-08T10:33
at 2021-12-08T10:33
By Todd Johnson
at 2021-12-12T23:53
at 2021-12-12T23:53
By Frederica
at 2021-12-17T05:24
at 2021-12-17T05:24
By Gary
at 2021-12-19T06:52
at 2021-12-19T06:52
By Kristin
at 2021-12-24T06:04
at 2021-12-24T06:04
By Kama
at 2021-12-25T21:52
at 2021-12-25T21:52
By Yedda
at 2021-12-29T17:58
at 2021-12-29T17:58
By Delia
at 2022-01-03T15:31
at 2022-01-03T15:31
By Hedda
at 2022-01-06T07:20
at 2022-01-06T07:20
By Olive
at 2022-01-06T10:32
at 2022-01-06T10:32
By Yedda
at 2022-01-09T21:17
at 2022-01-09T21:17
By Frederica
at 2022-01-14T03:38
at 2022-01-14T03:38
By Daniel
at 2022-01-17T16:28
at 2022-01-17T16:28
By Noah
at 2022-01-18T09:46
at 2022-01-18T09:46
By Regina
at 2022-01-23T09:16
at 2022-01-23T09:16
By Noah
at 2022-01-25T23:25
at 2022-01-25T23:25
By Adele
at 2022-01-27T11:34
at 2022-01-27T11:34
By Catherine
at 2022-01-29T11:55
at 2022-01-29T11:55
By Linda
at 2022-02-02T14:51
at 2022-02-02T14:51
By Harry
at 2022-02-05T20:40
at 2022-02-05T20:40
By David
at 2022-02-10T10:23
at 2022-02-10T10:23
By Edith
at 2022-02-14T22:18
at 2022-02-14T22:18
By Rebecca
at 2022-02-17T01:38
at 2022-02-17T01:38
By Una
at 2022-02-18T04:47
at 2022-02-18T04:47
By Heather
at 2022-02-21T11:54
at 2022-02-21T11:54
By Heather
at 2022-02-22T07:55
at 2022-02-22T07:55
By Leila
at 2022-02-22T23:27
at 2022-02-22T23:27
By Megan
at 2022-02-26T13:40
at 2022-02-26T13:40
By Erin
at 2022-03-02T06:10
at 2022-03-02T06:10
By Olivia
at 2022-03-02T14:16
at 2022-03-02T14:16
By Charlotte
at 2022-03-06T03:22
at 2022-03-06T03:22
By Olga
at 2022-03-06T22:29
at 2022-03-06T22:29
By Andy
at 2022-03-07T12:04
at 2022-03-07T12:04
By Hedwig
at 2022-03-11T13:20
at 2022-03-11T13:20
By Frederica
at 2022-03-15T09:25
at 2022-03-15T09:25
By Elma
at 2022-03-16T18:53
at 2022-03-16T18:53
By Isabella
at 2022-03-20T11:26
at 2022-03-20T11:26
By Jessica
at 2022-03-22T01:22
at 2022-03-22T01:22
By Aaliyah
at 2022-03-25T17:36
at 2022-03-25T17:36
By Liam
at 2022-03-27T19:56
at 2022-03-27T19:56
By Callum
at 2022-03-28T05:45
at 2022-03-28T05:45
By Harry
at 2022-03-30T03:08
at 2022-03-30T03:08
By Hedda
at 2022-04-01T14:24
at 2022-04-01T14:24
By Ophelia
at 2022-04-06T12:34
at 2022-04-06T12:34
By William
at 2022-04-06T17:29
at 2022-04-06T17:29
By Damian
at 2022-04-08T23:48
at 2022-04-08T23:48
By Oliver
at 2022-04-11T22:42
at 2022-04-11T22:42
By Xanthe
at 2022-04-13T03:35
at 2022-04-13T03:35
By Belly
at 2022-04-17T22:50
at 2022-04-17T22:50
By Yedda
at 2022-04-20T01:04
at 2022-04-20T01:04
By Mary
at 2022-04-24T20:58
at 2022-04-24T20:58
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-04-27T16:25
at 2022-04-27T16:25
By Sandy
at 2022-04-29T01:55
at 2022-04-29T01:55
By Noah
at 2022-05-03T06:58
at 2022-05-03T06:58
By Lily
at 2022-05-05T08:40
at 2022-05-05T08:40
By Elma
at 2022-05-06T14:26
at 2022-05-06T14:26
By Jake
at 2022-05-10T00:55
at 2022-05-10T00:55
By Anonymous
at 2022-05-10T03:51
at 2022-05-10T03:51
By Zanna
at 2022-05-13T10:50
at 2022-05-13T10:50
By Ula
at 2022-05-16T16:14
at 2022-05-16T16:14
By Ina
at 2022-05-20T20:24
at 2022-05-20T20:24
By Selena
at 2022-05-23T13:52
at 2022-05-23T13:52
By Olive
at 2022-05-26T18:43
at 2022-05-26T18:43
By Dinah
at 2022-05-27T17:12
at 2022-05-27T17:12
By Oliver
at 2022-05-31T16:14
at 2022-05-31T16:14
By Puput
at 2022-06-03T19:24
at 2022-06-03T19:24
By David
at 2022-06-06T15:40
at 2022-06-06T15:40
By Dorothy
at 2022-06-10T02:24
at 2022-06-10T02:24
By Candice
at 2022-06-13T10:50
at 2022-06-13T10:50
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-06-16T07:30
at 2022-06-16T07:30
By Anthony
at 2022-06-16T22:45
at 2022-06-16T22:45
By Adele
at 2022-06-17T17:58
at 2022-06-17T17:58
By Anthony
at 2022-06-19T19:43
at 2022-06-19T19:43
By Victoria
at 2022-06-20T13:29
at 2022-06-20T13:29
By Cara
at 2022-06-21T23:25
at 2022-06-21T23:25
By Ingrid
at 2022-06-25T14:20
at 2022-06-25T14:20
By Hamiltion
at 2022-06-27T11:34
at 2022-06-27T11:34
By Jack
at 2022-07-01T04:08
at 2022-07-01T04:08
By Leila
at 2022-07-04T08:07
at 2022-07-04T08:07
By Liam
at 2022-07-06T05:12
at 2022-07-06T05:12
By Hedwig
at 2022-07-10T11:34
at 2022-07-10T11:34
By Bethany
at 2022-07-15T10:20
at 2022-07-15T10:20
By Aaliyah
at 2022-07-16T10:13
at 2022-07-16T10:13
By Agnes
at 2022-07-19T15:06
at 2022-07-19T15:06
By Kyle
at 2022-07-22T03:17
at 2022-07-22T03:17
By Donna
at 2022-07-22T05:13
at 2022-07-22T05:13
By Callum
at 2022-07-22T15:39
at 2022-07-22T15:39
By Audriana
at 2022-07-23T19:01
at 2022-07-23T19:01
By Liam
at 2022-07-24T15:22
at 2022-07-24T15:22
By George
at 2022-07-25T21:30
at 2022-07-25T21:30
By Jessica
at 2022-07-30T05:17
at 2022-07-30T05:17
By Wallis
at 2022-08-01T19:58
at 2022-08-01T19:58
By Cara
at 2022-08-05T09:27
at 2022-08-05T09:27
By Quintina
at 2022-08-05T12:41
at 2022-08-05T12:41
By Ivy
at 2022-08-08T00:47
at 2022-08-08T00:47
By Andrew
at 2022-08-11T18:43
at 2022-08-11T18:43
By Dora
at 2022-08-13T00:03
at 2022-08-13T00:03
By Jacob
at 2022-08-13T17:23
at 2022-08-13T17:23
By Jake
at 2022-08-14T10:21
at 2022-08-14T10:21
By Iris
at 2022-08-18T05:07
at 2022-08-18T05:07
By Belly
at 2022-08-21T05:45
at 2022-08-21T05:45
By Kristin
at 2022-08-24T08:39
at 2022-08-24T08:39
By Elma
at 2022-08-24T13:15
at 2022-08-24T13:15
By Faithe
at 2022-08-24T22:44
at 2022-08-24T22:44
By Hedda
at 2022-08-25T12:31
at 2022-08-25T12:31
By Elma
at 2022-08-28T04:41
at 2022-08-28T04:41
By Annie
at 2022-08-30T10:34
at 2022-08-30T10:34
By Ula
at 2022-09-04T05:40
at 2022-09-04T05:40
By George
at 2022-09-05T00:53
at 2022-09-05T00:53
By Olga
at 2022-09-09T04:59
at 2022-09-09T04:59
By Isabella
at 2022-09-13T09:14
at 2022-09-13T09:14
By Ina
at 2022-09-17T16:07
at 2022-09-17T16:07
By Christine
at 2022-09-20T08:53
at 2022-09-20T08:53
By Doris
at 2022-09-25T04:32
at 2022-09-25T04:32
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-25T15:21
at 2022-09-25T15:21
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-29T21:57
at 2022-09-29T21:57
By Edith
at 2022-10-04T16:51
at 2022-10-04T16:51
By Megan
at 2022-10-04T22:27
at 2022-10-04T22:27
By Ida
at 2022-10-07T21:25
at 2022-10-07T21:25
By Agatha
at 2022-10-11T01:53
at 2022-10-11T01:53
By Caitlin
at 2022-10-13T19:39
at 2022-10-13T19:39
By Quintina
at 2022-10-14T05:59
at 2022-10-14T05:59
By Olive
at 2022-10-15T20:31
at 2022-10-15T20:31
By Zora
at 2022-10-16T00:27
at 2022-10-16T00:27
By Hedwig
at 2022-10-18T20:12
at 2022-10-18T20:12
By Poppy
at 2022-10-21T01:56
at 2022-10-21T01:56
By Poppy
at 2022-10-25T22:54
at 2022-10-25T22:54
By Kristin
at 2022-10-28T00:04
at 2022-10-28T00:04
By Zora
at 2022-10-31T07:12
at 2022-10-31T07:12
By Aaliyah
at 2022-11-04T09:14
at 2022-11-04T09:14
By James
at 2022-11-08T18:21
at 2022-11-08T18:21
By Mason
at 2022-11-10T04:26
at 2022-11-10T04:26
By Sandy
at 2022-11-14T18:24
at 2022-11-14T18:24
By Kelly
at 2022-11-16T07:29
at 2022-11-16T07:29
By Isabella
at 2022-11-18T09:22
at 2022-11-18T09:22
By Oliver
at 2022-11-18T22:47
at 2022-11-18T22:47
By Edwina
at 2022-11-23T20:01
at 2022-11-23T20:01
By Annie
at 2022-11-24T08:12
at 2022-11-24T08:12
By Mason
at 2022-11-25T14:31
at 2022-11-25T14:31
By Daniel
at 2022-11-29T02:26
at 2022-11-29T02:26
By Yedda
at 2022-11-30T00:43
at 2022-11-30T00:43
By Jacob
at 2022-12-02T03:25
at 2022-12-02T03:25
By Brianna
at 2022-12-06T23:18
at 2022-12-06T23:18
By Andrew
at 2022-12-11T00:06
at 2022-12-11T00:06
By Megan
at 2022-12-15T07:07
at 2022-12-15T07:07
By Zenobia
at 2022-12-17T05:26
at 2022-12-17T05:26
By Damian
at 2022-12-18T23:35
at 2022-12-18T23:35
By Erin
at 2022-12-22T07:59
at 2022-12-22T07:59
By Quintina
at 2022-12-22T15:04
at 2022-12-22T15:04
By Kama
at 2022-12-23T21:30
at 2022-12-23T21:30
By Kumar
at 2022-12-27T01:29
at 2022-12-27T01:29
By Daph Bay
at 2022-12-30T03:46
at 2022-12-30T03:46
By Emily
at 2023-01-03T12:39
at 2023-01-03T12:39
By William
at 2023-01-07T01:48
at 2023-01-07T01:48
By Mason
at 2023-01-11T20:49
at 2023-01-11T20:49
By Kama
at 2023-01-12T11:04
at 2023-01-12T11:04
By Sandy
at 2023-01-16T22:23
at 2023-01-16T22:23
By Edward Lewis
at 2023-01-18T02:47
at 2023-01-18T02:47
By Andrew
at 2023-01-19T12:00
at 2023-01-19T12:00
By Joseph
at 2023-01-20T12:09
at 2023-01-20T12:09
By Joseph
at 2023-01-22T04:56
at 2023-01-22T04:56
By Isla
at 2023-01-26T10:46
at 2023-01-26T10:46
By Lucy
at 2023-01-27T10:15
at 2023-01-27T10:15
By Rebecca
at 2023-01-30T21:25
at 2023-01-30T21:25
By Joe
at 2023-02-04T10:46
at 2023-02-04T10:46
By Lauren
at 2023-02-05T23:26
at 2023-02-05T23:26
By Jake
at 2023-02-07T20:32
at 2023-02-07T20:32
By Connor
at 2023-02-08T01:47
at 2023-02-08T01:47
By Iris
at 2023-02-08T16:01
at 2023-02-08T16:01
By Poppy
at 2023-02-10T04:35
at 2023-02-10T04:35
By Megan
at 2023-02-15T03:49
at 2023-02-15T03:49
By Zenobia
at 2023-02-20T03:20
at 2023-02-20T03:20
By Lily
at 2023-02-22T08:05
at 2023-02-22T08:05
By Rosalind
at 2023-02-26T05:17
at 2023-02-26T05:17
By Elizabeth
at 2023-02-26T14:53
at 2023-02-26T14:53
By Edwina
at 2023-02-27T16:49
at 2023-02-27T16:49
By Selena
at 2023-03-02T13:50
at 2023-03-02T13:50
By Quintina
at 2023-03-05T23:49
at 2023-03-05T23:49
By Steve
at 2023-03-06T03:03
at 2023-03-06T03:03
By Kelly
at 2023-03-10T08:39
at 2023-03-10T08:39
By Mason
at 2023-03-14T05:22
at 2023-03-14T05:22
By Mia
at 2023-03-16T18:33
at 2023-03-16T18:33
By Ina
at 2023-03-17T08:03
at 2023-03-17T08:03
By Lily
at 2023-03-21T18:41
at 2023-03-21T18:41
By Lily
at 2023-03-22T17:49
at 2023-03-22T17:49
By Rae
at 2023-03-25T08:39
at 2023-03-25T08:39
By Candice
at 2023-03-28T06:24
at 2023-03-28T06:24
By Lydia
at 2023-03-31T16:55
at 2023-03-31T16:55
By Sarah
at 2023-04-01T06:57
at 2023-04-01T06:57
By Caroline
at 2023-04-04T09:48
at 2023-04-04T09:48
By Rae
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