論形勢現在的台灣可以說是20年來最好機會 - 股票
By Liam
at 2020-11-16T23:38
at 2020-11-16T23:38
Table of Contents
2000年以前台灣的形勢如何? 那個時候資本不斷流入,加以趕上科技網路新經濟熱潮,
中國對於周邊國家的磁吸力尚不足,日本泡沫經濟起不來,
南韓也陷入金融危機,因此當時的台灣便在這樣的環境背景下創造了高成長,
低失業的經濟盛世,股市也常常表現強於各國股市
2000年後呢? 中國磁吸效應開始,資本流出,南韓崛起,加上一連串的施政策略錯誤,
因此經濟陷入一蹶不振的低成長,失業率也竄高,股市也多表現偏弱
今年呢? 只能說風水輪流轉,好的牌運又轉到台灣身上,香港反送中與中美貿易戰
讓台灣出現了久違的資本流入,今年新冠肺炎後資本流入的更多,
另外就是現在反中成了浪潮,以及台灣防疫有成,讓台灣多了很多轉單
以及在5G新經濟占了主場優勢,這麼好的機會可以說在2000年以來僅見的情況,
接下來可以預期的是什麼? 那就是2020以後的台灣經濟會比2000年代與2010年代
明顯來得好,失業率也會愈走愈低,股市呢? 2000年代高點10393,2010年代高點
12125,相隔不到1800點,反應的是成長力道偏弱,2020年呢?
若以樂觀推估接下來台灣經濟成長率4%的話,你就必須看得更遠,甚至往突破20000點去看
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