被動元件類股 - 股票
By Kama
at 2018-04-11T20:23
at 2018-04-11T20:23
Table of Contents
1. 標的:國巨 禾伸堂 華新科 信昌電 光頡
2. 分類:多
3. 分析/正文:
3/5號曾經有站內信過幾位版友,對於國巨
跟禾伸堂的看法,最近目標價也都達成了,
今天有人感謝並詢問後續看法,所以想說發
一篇標的文好了。
https://imgur.com/r1Ajy2X
(1)國巨(2327):
當時是預估今年會賺37塊左右,但我只
給予15倍本益比,推估目標價555,給15
倍是因為才第一季,營收是否逐季走強,
還有缺貨狀況是否持續,都仍須觀察,
目前看來,還是非常缺貨且晶片電阻也開
始調漲報價,這兩個部份國巨都是大宗,
而且都是在淡季就缺貨到調漲報價,旺季
即將來臨,今年估50塊上修目標價至750。
(2)禾伸堂(3026):
這支當時是看毛利率大幅提升,記得有一
則新聞還是研究報告是說公司不是著重於
提升營收而是著重於毛利率,當初配合營
收預估賺9~10塊,現在看來有機會賺12塊
上修目標價至180。
(3)華新科(2492):
這支我沒買,因為營收跟獲利我覺得沒有
國巨跟禾伸堂好,但昨天3月營收開得很
亮眼,這檔也是有晶片電阻與MLCC的雙題
材,預估今年有機會賺到11塊,目標價165。
(4)信昌電(6173):
這支我著墨比較沒那麼深,營收一樣很好
三月營收創歷史新高,這檔籌碼還蠻不錯
的,400張跟1000張大戶持續的在收籌碼,
投信也卡位布局,在外流通的籌碼少之又
少,預估今年可賺4.5~5塊,目標價75。
(5)光頡(3624):
這支今年調漲報價3次,不過三月營收只有
創歷史次高,這兩天應該是反應預期營收
亮眼的失望賣壓,包括我自己也是預期要
有2.2e~2.4e的營收,目前的營收動能來看
,預估今年可賺3~3.5塊,目標價50。
4. 進退場機制:(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制)
記得17Q3新聞說MLCC大概缺貨到17年底而已
結果一缺就缺到18年底了
年底會不會又說缺到19年底?
在持續缺貨狀況下
只要回測均線都可以買
然後買著抱住就對了
小弟每個月會持續追蹤產品報價跟營收狀況
--
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