血飲:中國拒絕購買美債,貿然降息QE死更快 - 股票

By Liam
at 2019-06-05T18:25
at 2019-06-05T18:25
Table of Contents
看了一下推文
我發覺很多人竟然對最基本的美債知識都沒有
這樣還想玩股票阿同學?
就好比說銀行和郵局的定存
會依照客戶所選擇的定存期限方案而給出不同的利率
正常來說都是定存越久利息就越高
這是基本常識
美債是一樣的原理
唯一的差別在於美國公債的債權是可以買賣和轉讓的
所以也會依照公開交易市場供需決定價格
美國公債依照到期日
短的有一個月到三個月
長的有十年到三十年
到期時間越長的債券就有越高的殖利率
而推文一堆人說的最近的美債上漲
實際上是指短期美債上漲
而當短期美債的殖利率超過長期美債的殖利率
這就意味著國際市場對美國經濟長期展望的信心危機
當然美國可以賴帳
先不談這麼作的後果
但今天的問題主要在於短期國債殖利率超過長期又代表美元的流動性危機
長期國債的買方更少而且美國政府的籌資和還款期更短
資金鏈更脆弱且隨時容易觸發斷鏈危機
不管是美元美債
最終都必須實現對商品或服務的利潤兌現
所以有人說美債的最大持有者是美國本身
沒錯,但這並不能解決利潤兌現的問題
美國的工業和服務業並不具有兌現全部美元流通量的能力
就算有,第二個問題是
美國的工業現在已有太多部門和部類已經不在美國本土生產
而且全球已經逐漸形成了各國間本幣直接交易系統的趨勢
讓美元失去大部分流通性和鑄幣稅的利潤
而且美國公債的交易主體是以各國的政府法人
而不是企業和散戶
簡單的說就是各國政府對美國的信任票
美債的價格取決於各國央行於國際市場的交易量
而非美國本身
別說中俄了現在連歐洲都在持續降低美債持有量並改持容易兌現的短期美債
還在繼續增持美債的大概只剩下半殖民地的台灣和日本等少數國家了
現在美國的經濟是異常敏感的狀態
不加息或降息都會因為殖利率倒掛加重美國資金斷鏈的風險
(如前所說,美國自己印鈔票沒用,因為無法實現兌現問題)
但一旦加息
資金就會恐慌性的逃離目前已經溢價過高的美國股市
這一樣會產生資金斷鏈的問題
現在已經不是多軍或空軍的問題了
是美元受到全球央行集體不信任
即將成為廢紙的問題了
--
我發覺很多人竟然對最基本的美債知識都沒有
這樣還想玩股票阿同學?
就好比說銀行和郵局的定存
會依照客戶所選擇的定存期限方案而給出不同的利率
正常來說都是定存越久利息就越高
這是基本常識
美債是一樣的原理
唯一的差別在於美國公債的債權是可以買賣和轉讓的
所以也會依照公開交易市場供需決定價格
美國公債依照到期日
短的有一個月到三個月
長的有十年到三十年
到期時間越長的債券就有越高的殖利率
而推文一堆人說的最近的美債上漲
實際上是指短期美債上漲
而當短期美債的殖利率超過長期美債的殖利率
這就意味著國際市場對美國經濟長期展望的信心危機
當然美國可以賴帳
先不談這麼作的後果
但今天的問題主要在於短期國債殖利率超過長期又代表美元的流動性危機
長期國債的買方更少而且美國政府的籌資和還款期更短
資金鏈更脆弱且隨時容易觸發斷鏈危機
不管是美元美債
最終都必須實現對商品或服務的利潤兌現
所以有人說美債的最大持有者是美國本身
沒錯,但這並不能解決利潤兌現的問題
美國的工業和服務業並不具有兌現全部美元流通量的能力
就算有,第二個問題是
美國的工業現在已有太多部門和部類已經不在美國本土生產
而且全球已經逐漸形成了各國間本幣直接交易系統的趨勢
讓美元失去大部分流通性和鑄幣稅的利潤
而且美國公債的交易主體是以各國的政府法人
而不是企業和散戶
簡單的說就是各國政府對美國的信任票
美債的價格取決於各國央行於國際市場的交易量
而非美國本身
別說中俄了現在連歐洲都在持續降低美債持有量並改持容易兌現的短期美債
還在繼續增持美債的大概只剩下半殖民地的台灣和日本等少數國家了
現在美國的經濟是異常敏感的狀態
不加息或降息都會因為殖利率倒掛加重美國資金斷鏈的風險
(如前所說,美國自己印鈔票沒用,因為無法實現兌現問題)
但一旦加息
資金就會恐慌性的逃離目前已經溢價過高的美國股市
這一樣會產生資金斷鏈的問題
現在已經不是多軍或空軍的問題了
是美元受到全球央行集體不信任
即將成為廢紙的問題了
--
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