艷陽高照後的烏雲 談談太陽能 - 股票
By Ursula
at 2020-10-14T13:12
at 2020-10-14T13:12
Table of Contents
1.標的: 太陽能模組業者
2.分類: 空
3.分析
十月以來台股資金流向除了晶圓代工為首的半導體族群之外,就是綠能產業了。
其中隨著今天國際智慧能源週開幕,對於國內太陽能模組近期漲勢不止,有一些風險層面
的想法,可以分為短中長期來談談。
長期來說,國內電廠用地的稀缺性還是政策達標的硬天花板,用地的飽和可能會比想像中
來得快,屆時去年以來的擴產是否將在三至五年後再次拖垮產能利用率會是個問號。中期
風險則是對於VPC台灣製造模組的保護,是建立在台電躉購優惠費率加成的條件上,部分
外資電廠是很有可能在台積電的收購費率下,精算後採用較低價的中資東南亞產進口模組
,這個潛在衝擊在主流財經媒體上幾乎避而不談。
最後,還有個短期危機,是拜登萬一落選,那應該會吐回不少先預期反應的漲幅,建議想
合法押注川普逆轉勝的台灣同胞可以試著放空台股太陽能族群。以指標龍頭茂迪為例,我
覺得是漲過頭了,但不代表不會再漲,要我猜的話最近幾個交易日有可能展開利多出盡的
下行走勢。
--
2.分類: 空
3.分析
十月以來台股資金流向除了晶圓代工為首的半導體族群之外,就是綠能產業了。
其中隨著今天國際智慧能源週開幕,對於國內太陽能模組近期漲勢不止,有一些風險層面
的想法,可以分為短中長期來談談。
長期來說,國內電廠用地的稀缺性還是政策達標的硬天花板,用地的飽和可能會比想像中
來得快,屆時去年以來的擴產是否將在三至五年後再次拖垮產能利用率會是個問號。中期
風險則是對於VPC台灣製造模組的保護,是建立在台電躉購優惠費率加成的條件上,部分
外資電廠是很有可能在台積電的收購費率下,精算後採用較低價的中資東南亞產進口模組
,這個潛在衝擊在主流財經媒體上幾乎避而不談。
最後,還有個短期危機,是拜登萬一落選,那應該會吐回不少先預期反應的漲幅,建議想
合法押注川普逆轉勝的台灣同胞可以試著放空台股太陽能族群。以指標龍頭茂迪為例,我
覺得是漲過頭了,但不代表不會再漲,要我猜的話最近幾個交易日有可能展開利多出盡的
下行走勢。
--
Tags:
股票
All Comments
By Oscar
at 2020-10-18T17:43
at 2020-10-18T17:43
By Adele
at 2020-10-20T04:42
at 2020-10-20T04:42
By Anthony
at 2020-10-24T07:27
at 2020-10-24T07:27
By Ethan
at 2020-10-27T20:56
at 2020-10-27T20:56
By Suhail Hany
at 2020-10-31T18:10
at 2020-10-31T18:10
By Andrew
at 2020-10-31T20:45
at 2020-10-31T20:45
By Margaret
at 2020-11-03T00:44
at 2020-11-03T00:44
By Belly
at 2020-11-07T12:04
at 2020-11-07T12:04
By Ivy
at 2020-11-07T20:07
at 2020-11-07T20:07
By Odelette
at 2020-11-10T23:34
at 2020-11-10T23:34
By Christine
at 2020-11-15T02:32
at 2020-11-15T02:32
By Tristan Cohan
at 2020-11-18T21:48
at 2020-11-18T21:48
By Kristin
at 2020-11-21T15:51
at 2020-11-21T15:51
By Andy
at 2020-11-23T10:21
at 2020-11-23T10:21
By Catherine
at 2020-11-26T23:56
at 2020-11-26T23:56
By Sierra Rose
at 2020-11-30T04:13
at 2020-11-30T04:13
By Daph Bay
at 2020-12-03T01:02
at 2020-12-03T01:02
By David
at 2020-12-07T04:09
at 2020-12-07T04:09
By Xanthe
at 2020-12-08T12:02
at 2020-12-08T12:02
By Anthony
at 2020-12-09T09:32
at 2020-12-09T09:32
By Anonymous
at 2020-12-11T11:38
at 2020-12-11T11:38
By Kumar
at 2020-12-16T01:03
at 2020-12-16T01:03
By Rebecca
at 2020-12-19T07:03
at 2020-12-19T07:03
By Hardy
at 2020-12-21T14:52
at 2020-12-21T14:52
By Blanche
at 2020-12-25T02:06
at 2020-12-25T02:06
By Gary
at 2020-12-26T17:17
at 2020-12-26T17:17
By Heather
at 2020-12-30T22:29
at 2020-12-30T22:29
By Jack
at 2020-12-31T23:31
at 2020-12-31T23:31
By Ophelia
at 2021-01-02T23:09
at 2021-01-02T23:09
By Lucy
at 2021-01-07T10:46
at 2021-01-07T10:46
By Hamiltion
at 2021-01-12T05:31
at 2021-01-12T05:31
By Skylar Davis
at 2021-01-12T08:27
at 2021-01-12T08:27
By Iris
at 2021-01-13T06:47
at 2021-01-13T06:47
By Emily
at 2021-01-13T19:22
at 2021-01-13T19:22
By Sierra Rose
at 2021-01-15T14:24
at 2021-01-15T14:24
By Elizabeth
at 2021-01-17T17:48
at 2021-01-17T17:48
Related Posts
存股族最終會失敗被洗出去的原因?
By Leila
at 2020-10-14T12:40
at 2020-10-14T12:40
南亞科法說後 啟動落後補漲行情
By Connor
at 2020-10-14T12:20
at 2020-10-14T12:20
空方暫畢
By Jessica
at 2020-10-14T12:15
at 2020-10-14T12:15
國際中橡
By Elma
at 2020-10-14T12:05
at 2020-10-14T12:05
2303 聯電 長期投資
By Dinah
at 2020-10-14T11:59
at 2020-10-14T11:59