航運股「神鬼交鋒」不怕震!滙豐升長榮 - 股票

By Doris
at 2021-04-23T23:03
at 2021-04-23T23:03
Table of Contents
原文標題:
航運股「神鬼交鋒」不怕震!滙豐升長榮目標價至95元 (請勿刪減原文標題)
原文連結:
https://udn.com/news/story/7251/5409681
發布時間:
2021-04-23 20:36 經濟日報 / 記者趙于萱/台北即時報導
原文內容:
航運股經歷22日「驚天一震」,23日雖普遍拉回,但運價持續大漲,法人看好股價重振,
包括滙豐證券樂觀,長榮(2603)第1季獲利優於預期,大幅提高全年獲利,為此一口氣
將今年每股純益(EPS)上修到17元,並預期長榮配出高達12元的股利,目標價自70元拉
升到95元。
鑒於長榮營運樂觀,滙豐持續高喊買進,還特別以「神鬼交鋒」(catch me if you can
)作為新報告的副標,對照航運股短線震盪,似有暗示即使大浪來襲,也澆不熄航運股業
績大好推升股價上漲的趨勢。
滙豐對長榮的目標價緊追摩根大通喊出的101元,有趣的是,前者比後者預測的獲利還樂
觀,目前滙豐對長榮2021-2022年EPS預測達到17.86元、13.96元,而摩根大通只預估
10.73元、9.03元,但憑藉更高的本益比,摩根大通目標價已經「破百」。
至於對比滙豐本身,先前4月10日上調長榮目標價至70元時,對長榮今年EPS預測為14元多
,2022年約10元,若後續摩根大通也上調財測,目標價不排除再上修。
滙豐表示,長榮第1季營收大幅成長,管理層公布的細節數據顯示,今年1、2月長榮運量
提高了7%,前二月平均運價較去年第4季增加63%,同期比較成長高達117%,單月來看,平
均運價則從去年12月的1,216美元,1月來到1,589美元,2月再提高到1,800美元。
滙豐未取得長榮3月的細節資訊,但依上個月營收月增9%,可預期平均運價持續上漲,幅
度將高出預估。
為此該券商上調對長榮第1季的獲利預測至320億元,較先前的290億元大幅增加一成,全
年獲利同步提高到94億元,換算EPS可達17.8元。滙豐並樂觀,長榮2021年度配發股息上
探12元,如以目前股價約70元反推的殖利率超過12%,凸顯評價依然很有吸引力。
此外,摩根大通預估,航運業景氣看到第3季,滙豐也表示,由於蘇伊士運河塞港事件,
導致歐洲運船已經「滿到喉頭」(full to the brim),塞港更加嚴重。
馬士基認為將加劇貨櫃短缺挑戰,赫伯羅德則認為,亞洲要拿到可用的貨櫃,交期至少拉
長到6-8周,這些無疑提高第3季運價高檔或續漲的機會,而馬士基也提到,蘇伊士運河事
件的外溢效果勢必到第3季。
心得/評論: ※必需填寫滿20字
匯豐爸爸說話了
狂跌跌到30塊的時候十萬張撐住長榮不破線的匯豐爸爸
海運我只服他跟宏遠
但未來他應該會在上調的
爸爸受水手們一拜吧
明年發12元匯不會太香了
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