股債配置,扼殺創意的元兇 - 理財
By Anthony
at 2023-01-15T16:51
at 2023-01-15T16:51
Table of Contents
※ 引述《m180 (月薪180)》之銘言:
: https://i.imgur.com/8u3DEUs.jpg
: 看了綠角這段,讓我啞然失笑
: 「假如你使用的是中期公債,這一年
: 10.5%的下跌。比股市下跌和缓,股債
: 搭配起來,仍可以减少整體損失。」
: 那你為何不放現金就好?
: 在那之前債息1%不到,趨近於零還在股債配置
: 真的是為了股債而股債嗎?!
用 excel 回測了一下
用 VFITX(中期公債)、VFINX(S&P500)、CASHX(Cash) (From Portfolio visualizer)
期初投入10000美元,1991 NOV ~ 2022 DEC
60% VFINX + 40% VFITX,每月再平衡,期末是 110210
60% VFINX + 40% (VFITX if 5-year rate > 1%, CASHX if 5-year rate < 1%)
每月月初檢查 5-year treasury rate 並再平衡,期末是 107415
(5-year rate from https://www.multpl.com/5-year-treasury-rate/table/by-month )
cut off 設在 0.5% 的話,期末是 109879
===
在 374 個月中,
月初 5-year treausry rate 小於 1% 的月份有 38 個月
小於 0.5% 的月份有 10 個月
===
回測有效的策略,日後未必會繼續成功
但如果連回測都沒有效,嗯...
--
So stand by your glasses steady,
Here’s good luck to the man in the sky,
Here’s a toast to the dead already,
Three cheers for the next man to die.
--
: https://i.imgur.com/8u3DEUs.jpg
: 看了綠角這段,讓我啞然失笑
: 「假如你使用的是中期公債,這一年
: 10.5%的下跌。比股市下跌和缓,股債
: 搭配起來,仍可以减少整體損失。」
: 那你為何不放現金就好?
: 在那之前債息1%不到,趨近於零還在股債配置
: 真的是為了股債而股債嗎?!
用 excel 回測了一下
用 VFITX(中期公債)、VFINX(S&P500)、CASHX(Cash) (From Portfolio visualizer)
期初投入10000美元,1991 NOV ~ 2022 DEC
60% VFINX + 40% VFITX,每月再平衡,期末是 110210
60% VFINX + 40% (VFITX if 5-year rate > 1%, CASHX if 5-year rate < 1%)
每月月初檢查 5-year treasury rate 並再平衡,期末是 107415
(5-year rate from https://www.multpl.com/5-year-treasury-rate/table/by-month )
cut off 設在 0.5% 的話,期末是 109879
===
在 374 個月中,
月初 5-year treausry rate 小於 1% 的月份有 38 個月
小於 0.5% 的月份有 10 個月
===
回測有效的策略,日後未必會繼續成功
但如果連回測都沒有效,嗯...
--
So stand by your glasses steady,
Here’s good luck to the man in the sky,
Here’s a toast to the dead already,
Three cheers for the next man to die.
--
Tags:
理財
All Comments
By Joe
at 2023-01-19T03:45
at 2023-01-19T03:45
By Suhail Hany
at 2023-01-22T14:40
at 2023-01-22T14:40
By Kama
at 2023-01-26T01:34
at 2023-01-26T01:34
By Queena
at 2023-01-29T12:29
at 2023-01-29T12:29
By Agnes
at 2023-01-26T11:20
at 2023-01-26T11:20
By Zenobia
at 2023-01-29T22:15
at 2023-01-29T22:15
By Joseph
at 2023-01-26T11:20
at 2023-01-26T11:20
By Jacky
at 2023-01-29T22:15
at 2023-01-29T22:15
By Xanthe
at 2023-01-26T11:20
at 2023-01-26T11:20
By Doris
at 2023-01-29T22:15
at 2023-01-29T22:15
By Hamiltion
at 2023-01-26T11:20
at 2023-01-26T11:20
By Isla
at 2023-01-29T22:15
at 2023-01-29T22:15
By Eartha
at 2023-01-26T11:20
at 2023-01-26T11:20
By Olga
at 2023-01-29T22:15
at 2023-01-29T22:15
By Madame
at 2023-01-26T11:20
at 2023-01-26T11:20
By Erin
at 2023-01-29T22:15
at 2023-01-29T22:15
By Gary
at 2023-01-26T11:20
at 2023-01-26T11:20
By Odelette
at 2023-01-29T22:15
at 2023-01-29T22:15
By Irma
at 2023-01-26T11:20
at 2023-01-26T11:20
Related Posts
嘉信匯票功能
By Harry
at 2023-01-15T11:04
at 2023-01-15T11:04
關於現在是債券的買入時機嗎?
By Yuri
at 2023-01-15T10:16
at 2023-01-15T10:16
股債配置,扼殺創意的元兇
By Gilbert
at 2023-01-14T18:40
at 2023-01-14T18:40
國泰複委託換股持有
By Frederic
at 2023-01-14T10:56
at 2023-01-14T10:56
嘉信的閒置資金怎麼運用好
By George
at 2023-01-14T09:53
at 2023-01-14T09:53