群聯董座:Q3業績可優於同業 - 股票
By Sandy
at 2020-08-16T15:33
at 2020-08-16T15:33
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://ctee.com.tw/news/stock/318087.html
2.原文內容:
群聯董座:Q3業績可優於同業
工商時報 蘇嘉維 2020.08.14
NAND Flash控制IC廠群聯(8299)第二季受到新冠肺炎疫情影響,使消費性產品出貨遞延
,加上市場價格競爭,使單季獲利季減37.7%至11.83億元。對於第三季展望,群聯董事
長潘健成指出,公司市占率持續提升,加上記憶體容量續增,群聯出貨有望持續上揚,毛
利率也可望在第三季落底,有信心群聯第三季業績表現能優於同業。
群聯公告第二季財報,單季合併營收為108.55億元、季減15.6%、年成長約11%,毛利率
24.8%、季減5.8個百分點,稅後淨利11.83億元、季減37.7%,但仍創下歷史同期第三高
,每股淨利6元。
潘健成指出,雖然第二季資料中心及筆電等需求都呈現成長態勢,不過在新冠肺炎疫情影
響下,使消費性市場需求疲弱、客戶端遞延拉貨,同業開始降價競爭,讓群聯第二季合併
營收及毛利率受到衝擊。
從各產品線出貨狀況來看,群聯表示,2020年第二季SSD及eMMC控制IC總出貨量相較2019
年同期成長38%,其中PCIe SSD控制晶片總出貨量更是成長達111%,顯示終端市場在高
階PCIe Gen4 SSD的帶動下,對於高速儲存需求依舊強勁。
展望下半年營運,潘健成表示,目前市場競爭情況依舊存在,使群聯第三季毛利率承受一
點壓力,但預期在市場需求回溫效應下,預計上半年的庫存壓力有機會在8月及9月開始削
減,且看好毛利率在第三季將可望是谷底,加上群聯同時布局控制IC及模組等產品線,市
占率持續走升情況下,毛利率將可望守住20%關卡,預期群聯第三季營運仍可望優於同業
水準。
潘健成接著指出,雖然國際記憶體大廠開始釋出對2020年第四季及2021年第一季保守訊號
,不過這將有利於群聯搶攻市場,原因在於雖然疫情將影響消費市場減緩,但容量需求仍
持續上揚,因此將可使群聯出貨再度成長,
針對先前出售KSI及對轉投資子公司宏芯宇增資一事,潘健成說明,該投資調整是為了讓
群聯持續調整業外投資佈局與架構,目的就是為了讓群聯能在動盪的全球市場持續站穩腳
步。
3.心得/評論:
潘董認為Q3會落底
那麼其他人的看法又是如何呢
宇瞻(8271)總經理張家騉8/12法說會:
目前看來,記憶體因需求消退,已轉為供過於求。
他引用集邦科技對記憶體產業最新預測,認為本季DRAM及NAND Flash都將供過於求,
其中,DRAM報價跌勢恐延續至明年上半年;NAND Flash甚至明年底都難逃供過於求。
美光8/13:
需求前景正在惡化,下季不太可能達到營收目標。
7/24海力士示警 記憶體旺季不旺:
SK海力士上季獲利三級跳,優於市場預期,
但警告下半年記憶體價格有修正壓力,預估報價要到明年才會回升。
7/31 集邦:NAND Flash每況愈下
觀察NAND Flash整體供需狀況,今年第三季供過於求比例為2.6%,
展望第四季,供過於求比例將進一步擴大至7.8%,使得後續價格走勢更加嚴峻。
集邦預估第三季整體NAND Flash價格將較上季下跌5~10%,
第四季跌幅擴大至10~15%
(這些資訊DRAM和NAND Flash都混在一起,請自己仔細閱讀分辨)
Flash Wafer 行情走勢圖:
https://i.imgur.com/HpFZYE5.jpg
DRAM 的部分(DXI):
https://i.imgur.com/VX51g6x.jpg
記憶體現貨價下跌 我兩個月前就在閒聊提醒了
到現在都還沒止住...
另外
看到一個產業 不要只想到這個產業
其他相關產業的影響又是如何??
--
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