美股驚見「興登堡凶兆」! - 股票

By Agnes
at 2017-06-27T21:08
at 2017-06-27T21:08
Table of Contents
1.原文連結(超過一行或過長必須縮網址):
http://news.cnyes.com/news/id/3850455
2.原文內容:美股驚見「興登堡凶兆」!可能爆發50-60%股災?
鉅亨網新聞中心2017/06/27 18:15
美國基金公司 Hussman Funds 負責人 John Hussman 周一 (26 日) 發文警告,最近美國
股市再度出現預告災難的「興登堡凶兆 (Hindenburg Omen)」;加上市場內部勢力分歧,
全球利率又開始抬升,他預警美股這波走勢循環結束前,越來越可能爆發幅度達
50%-60% 的過渡期崩跌。
所謂「興登堡凶兆」,即當紐約證交所 (NYSE) 創 52 週新高及新低的股票,雙雙佔當日
交易股票總數 2.5% 以上。Hussman 指出,通常單單出現這樣的情況不一定是「凶兆」,
除非是股指高漲時市場漲跌比更普遍擴大,或是差距近幾天內數度出現凶兆,或是市場內
部動力出現不利情況。
不幸的是 Hussman 發現,近幾周美股漲跌差距擴大。即使標準普爾 (S&P) 500 指數接近
歷史頂峰,周線創新低的美股平均家數仍達所有交易股票的 4% 左右,上周更來到接近
6%;但同時間股價已跌到 200 日移動均線以下的美股家數,已佔了近 40%。
此外,Hussman 在最近幾周觀察到有 4 天出現上述漲跌分歧擴大的跡象,單單上周就有
2 次。在 1999 年 12 月、2007 年 7 月及 11 月和 2015 年 7-8 月,也都出現過類似
情況。而由於根據他認為最可靠的估值計算,目前美股價格較歷史常態高出了 140%-165%
,使得他預估可能爆發上述規模的跌幅。
3.心得/評論(必需填寫滿20字):
道瓊和費半納斯達克最近真的都不同調耶
代表美股真的要準備崩盤了嗎...囧
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