美股雲霄飛車 - 股票

By John
at 2020-03-13T22:10
at 2020-03-13T22:10
Table of Contents
之前看到很多人在嗆:「你憑什麼知道這是熊市」
那講比較具體有感的好了
其實多的希望就是各行各業未來業績會V型復甦 (講「業績」,比較精準,或說營業額)
追蹤很多指標,例如就業數據等等,都是在期待疫情過後的反彈
但現在有一個問題就是,現在的景氣指標全部都已經處在、
或是即將處在「被蓋牌」「被擾亂」的情況下
你的業績數字會開出下滑
新增就業數字會開出下滑
但你已經永遠不知道永遠搞不清楚,這個數字到底是因為疫情下滑,還是景氣下滑
還是說疫情下滑已經變成真正的景氣下滑了
實際上天底下也沒人知道這個問題的答案
這個價值的無法被定義、以及無法被觀測,就是多空交戰大波動的根據
隨著時間愈來愈久,如果疫情長到一定程度,跨越財報季,如果連財報年都跨了
到時候假的就會變成真的,弄假成真
本來只是暫時閉關,變成半永久阿宅
本來只是一時社交疏離,結果變成真蕭條
拖太久到時候可能也不用妄想什麼V型反彈了
說不定連V都沒有
所以我覺得喔,還是觀察解藥、疫情、各國的恐慌狀態和資金鏈啦,其他都不用太觀察
解藥突然做出來、病突然消滅了,那就沒事了
突然在新的地區又爆發了,那就有事了
解藥什麼時候做得出來,這是人不可能預測的範圍啦
你只要不預測就不會輸啦,還沒做出來之前就一直死空或空手,不要手賤去撿
真的有解藥做出來了,開始漲第一波了再做多就好了
做跑最快的第二名,不用搶當先知第一名、第零名啦
病就還沒好跟搶啥反彈
※ 引述《ceca (生活藝術大師 N)》之銘言:
: 美股!!
: 開紅一千多.
: 沒幾分鐘剩七百多.
: 到底之後這個劇情會怎樣的曲折離奇匪夷所思呢?
: 各位猜猜看...!!!!
--
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股票
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