美經濟衰退止不住? 一場股市風暴成形 - 股票

By Victoria
at 2019-06-20T19:27
at 2019-06-20T19:27
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20190619003091-260410?chdtv
2.原文內容:
美經濟衰退止不住? 一場股市風暴成形
全球經濟數據表現不佳,本月初公布的美國非農就業數據也大幅低於市場預期,甚至創下
10年來新低,加上中美貿易戰疑慮未除,地緣政治情勢緊張,市場都在關注美國聯準會
(Fed) 利率決策會議是否有降息決定。不過,若Fed未如市場預期降息的話,美股可能出
現拋售潮。
摩根大通(JPMorgan)策略分析師表示,美股近期反彈可能建立在降息的預期信心之上,
但若Fed本周並未明確表示降息,美股可能會出現拋售潮。美國總統川普與大陸國家主席
習近平18日進行熱線,並敲定在本月底G20高峰會前舉行中美領導人會議,雙方貿易談判
代表團也將在峰會前進行磋商。不過,摩根大通認為,中美貿易協議想在此時達成的可能
性非常低,Fed更需要表明利率政策的前瞻引導。
Fed紐約分行周一(17日)公布6月份紐約州製造業調查指數,從前月的17.8點下滑26.4 點
,創下有記錄以來最大單月度跌幅,指數來到-8.6,為2016年10月以來最低水準,顯示中
美關稅戰對於製造商與整體經濟的負面影響正在擴大。
此外,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)所編製的商業狀況指數(Business Conditions
Index)於本月驟降32點,直逼2008年金融危機以來最慘紀錄,市場擔憂,此現象恐讓股
市出現大幅修正。
對於市場上的高度預期與經濟成長低展望,也反應在花旗的全球盈利修正指數,分析師對
全球上市公司盈利預期下修數量超過上修數量,預期全球企業業績恐步上去年下半年向下
修正的後塵。
據《鉅亨網》報導,各項指標數據表現不佳,導致經濟衰退的憂慮不斷升高,這也使得
Fed周三利率會議結束後是否宣布降息,一旦不如市場預期,股市將陷入一場修正風暴當
中。
3.心得/評論:
好,FED確定降息,加上川普致電習近平以因應,以因應美國經濟大幅衰退可能
造成的美股崩跌,讓美股暫時不用入住加護病房,但表示後續走勢如何
仍需看中國領導人是否願意為美國遞上救生圈。
剛剛某股市節目:目前中國已與印度.伊朗.俄羅斯.北韓等結成反美大聯盟
而美國只有少數幾個國家相挺,甚至在之前封鎖華為的行動中也只有澳洲.日本兩國願意
配合,歐洲甚至同為五眼聯盟的英國也是陽奉陰違,種種跡象顯示美國影響力正在衰退
至於未來股市走勢如何?端看G20中國領導人的態度,在這之前建議保留現金
並開始留意研究下列個股
1.華為概念股
2.中國內需ETF
3.汽車製造概念股
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