美國失業勞工在家領的比上班還多 - 股票

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Two-thirds of laid off workers eligible for benefits that exceed their wages: NB
ER paper


PUBLISHED WED, JUL 8 2020 3:54 PM EDT
Jeff Cox


Layoffs associated with the coronavirus pandemic have hit lower-income workers m
uch more than those at the highest end of the pay scale, but their compensation
while off the job can double their typical wages.

A National Bureau of Economic Research look at employment trends over the past t
hree months showed that two-thirds of all displaced workers are eligible for ben
efits that exceed their typical wages.


In some cases, the increase can be dramatic.

Unemployed janitors can collect 158% of their pay, while the typical retail work
er can get 142% of what they had been earning, according to a study by NBER rese
archers Peter Ganong, Joseph S. Vavra and Pascal J. Noel. Each is affiliated wit
h the University of Chicago.

Overall, they discovered that 68% of the unemployed can get benefits exceeding w
hat they had been earning, with the median replacement rate being 134%. Those in
the bottom 20% of income are eligible more than 200% of their salaries. Occupat
ions with the highest percentage of unemployment compensation compared to salary
include food service, janitors and medical assistants.

The extra benefits are the result of the CARES Act, which sought to provide a li
fe raft for workers displaced by efforts to combat the virus. The program gives
millions of workers $600 a week above what they would normally collect in unempl
oyment insurance benefits. Workers considered essential, such as those in health
care and at grocery stores, are getting their normal salaries as they have cont
inued to work through the crisis.


While the CARES funds have helped bring financial stability to impacted househol
ds, concerns have been raised over the idea of giving workers added incentive no
t to return to their jobs. The CARES Act funding expires at the end of July and
is unlikely to survive in its current form.


The NBER paper does not make specific recommendations but notes that policymaker
s could weigh altering the program so that unemployment compensation stays below
100% of previous wages. Even providing an extra $300 instead of $600 still woul
d leave 42% of all workers above full pay, the researchers note.

"High replacement rates can provide crucial liquidity necessary for households t
o smooth consumption during this unprecedented period of economic dislocation,"
they said. However, they added that the above-100% "replacement rates" can "crea
te distributional issues and may hamper efficient labor reallocation both now, a
nd especially during an eventual recovery."

The authors also point out that furloughed workers in many cases lose health cov
erage and are providing public health benefits by staying home.

Working out the 'moral hazard'

The most recent Federal Reserve "Beige Book," which summarizes activity from the
central bank's 12 districts, reported employers saying they were having a hard
time getting workers to come back because they are making more on unemployment.

U.K. Finance Minister Rishi Sunak announced Wednesday his intention to wind down
a similar program there that he said "can't and shouldn't go on forever." The d
ecision to curtail unemployment benefits generated criticism that it was prematu
re at a time when the employment crisis is far from over.

The current U.S. system "induces trade-offs between consumption smoothing and mo
ral hazard," the NBER paper states.

The researchers conclude that providing a policy that provides compensation on a
percentage basis rather than a fixed-dollar amount could be more efficient.

"Such a policy does not provide the same disproportionate benefit to the poorest
unemployed, but it can achieve substantial income replacement and resulting liq
uidity without pushing replacement rates above 100% for many workers," they wrot
e.

The jobs market has been staging a comeback over the past two months, with 7.5 m
illion jobs added and the unemployment rate coming down from 14.7% to 11.1%. How
ever, permanent layoffs have been rising, and Fed officials say more fiscal help
likely will be necessary to help the economy continue to recover.

A separate NBER study showed that employment fell for 30% of those in the bottom
-fifth of workers while the number was just 5% for the top quintile.

The numbers emphasize the challenge for policymakers even as the labor market ma
kes strides from the biggest layoff cycle in U.S. history.

"We've seen a nice recovery, we've seen a bounce," said Michelle Meyer, U.S. eco
nomist at Bank of America Global Research. "But it's going to get more challengi
ng."


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/two-thirds-of-laid-off-workers-eligible-for-bene
fits-that-exceed-their-wages-nber-paper.html


心得：

美國國家經濟研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research）調查

美國政府對失業的人給予福利補助 已經到了誇張的程度


失業的社區警衛可以拿到他們原來薪水的158%補助

一般的零售工人可以拿到原來薪水的142%。


有68%的失業者可以得到超過他們之前收入的福利補助，補助為工資的134% 。


而那些收入最低的20%的人士，甚至有資格獲得超過工資200%的補助。


FED最新報告發現 ，老闆現在沒辦法叫員工回來上班，因為員工在家什麼都不做 領的比上
班還多


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