美元升值論可以休矣! - 美元

By Kristin
at 2010-03-10T17:44
at 2010-03-10T17:44
Table of Contents
美元升值論可以休矣!
原文於2010-03-04 09:17貼於羽匯軒 http://blog.xuite.net/sandpiper/FX/31605475
前幾天我就講過,在技術線圖上歐元和2008/11月底~12月初這段時間的暴漲很像,結果還
被嗆,說什麼對沖基金放空歐元數量達歷史新高。事實上很多人都不知道這些對沖基金到
底有放空多少金額,更遑論說歐元這種大型貨幣不是像以前索羅斯對付英鎊這種中型貨幣
般容易控制的,更沒想過這些新聞是不是對沖基金放出來讓散戶跟風,他們好準備出貨的
(雖然外匯市場很難控制,不過一些中小型的基金可能也因為這樣會被整得很慘)。現在歐
元已經突破20日均線,不用說現在我看漲歐元,年底時我也認為歐元會到至少1.47,明年
更會再度突破1.6的關卡(不信可等時間印證)。
看漲歐元的關鍵很簡單,就是美國的聯邦基金利率!因為美國開始升息之後,最快也要再半
年美元才會升值。不信的話各位可以去瞧瞧上次網路科技泡沫之後的歷史:美國在2004/6
/30才開始升息,歐元卻在這年的12/31收盤才見到最高點,2005年一整年幾乎都是下跌(20
05/12月漲,而這也是歐元2006~2008反攻的起點)。因此現在的美元升值論實在可以停止了
。另外美元長期要升值也至少要有以下其中一個條件:
1.利率高到壓制經濟體的大部分消費(1980-1985):美國在這段時間兩次利率升到18%以上,
最高20%(不要懷疑,我沒有寫錯!!),不信的請去看這邊http://0rz.tw/hm0D2。 這可是
Fed的官網哦!
2.或者科技出現重大革新導致資本流入美國高科技股 (1992-2000)。因為相對於歐洲國家
來說,美國股市有較多的科技股,所以上一次網路科技泡沫時,自然造就了美元的長期多
頭。
以上這兩段文字我在這篇有寫過http://blog.xuite.net/sandpiper/FX/29118551,各位可
以再看看。而以上這兩個條件沒有一個符合現在的狀況的,因此美元要長期升值,還早得
很! 說真的,我最近看過不少部落格,有不少「分析師」分析一堆數據,卻都沒有分析聯
邦基金利率對於歐元走勢,也都沒去研究2004~2005這段時間EUR/USD的歷史,這些絕對比
一堆無關匯率的數據還有用。
之後,美元會再度陷於每年的「春季魔咒」而連續貶到至少五月初(我意思是說中間的回檔
幅度會相當小,不是說完全不會回檔),這情形各位去回味一下去年同期的行情就知道了。
ps:我有參加這次非凡的徵文,請幫我一下
http://blog.xuite.net/sandpiper/FX/31794808
--
原文於2010-03-04 09:17貼於羽匯軒 http://blog.xuite.net/sandpiper/FX/31605475
前幾天我就講過,在技術線圖上歐元和2008/11月底~12月初這段時間的暴漲很像,結果還
被嗆,說什麼對沖基金放空歐元數量達歷史新高。事實上很多人都不知道這些對沖基金到
底有放空多少金額,更遑論說歐元這種大型貨幣不是像以前索羅斯對付英鎊這種中型貨幣
般容易控制的,更沒想過這些新聞是不是對沖基金放出來讓散戶跟風,他們好準備出貨的
(雖然外匯市場很難控制,不過一些中小型的基金可能也因為這樣會被整得很慘)。現在歐
元已經突破20日均線,不用說現在我看漲歐元,年底時我也認為歐元會到至少1.47,明年
更會再度突破1.6的關卡(不信可等時間印證)。
看漲歐元的關鍵很簡單,就是美國的聯邦基金利率!因為美國開始升息之後,最快也要再半
年美元才會升值。不信的話各位可以去瞧瞧上次網路科技泡沫之後的歷史:美國在2004/6
/30才開始升息,歐元卻在這年的12/31收盤才見到最高點,2005年一整年幾乎都是下跌(20
05/12月漲,而這也是歐元2006~2008反攻的起點)。因此現在的美元升值論實在可以停止了
。另外美元長期要升值也至少要有以下其中一個條件:
1.利率高到壓制經濟體的大部分消費(1980-1985):美國在這段時間兩次利率升到18%以上,
最高20%(不要懷疑,我沒有寫錯!!),不信的請去看這邊http://0rz.tw/hm0D2。 這可是
Fed的官網哦!
2.或者科技出現重大革新導致資本流入美國高科技股 (1992-2000)。因為相對於歐洲國家
來說,美國股市有較多的科技股,所以上一次網路科技泡沫時,自然造就了美元的長期多
頭。
以上這兩段文字我在這篇有寫過http://blog.xuite.net/sandpiper/FX/29118551,各位可
以再看看。而以上這兩個條件沒有一個符合現在的狀況的,因此美元要長期升值,還早得
很! 說真的,我最近看過不少部落格,有不少「分析師」分析一堆數據,卻都沒有分析聯
邦基金利率對於歐元走勢,也都沒去研究2004~2005這段時間EUR/USD的歷史,這些絕對比
一堆無關匯率的數據還有用。
之後,美元會再度陷於每年的「春季魔咒」而連續貶到至少五月初(我意思是說中間的回檔
幅度會相當小,不是說完全不會回檔),這情形各位去回味一下去年同期的行情就知道了。
ps:我有參加這次非凡的徵文,請幫我一下
http://blog.xuite.net/sandpiper/FX/31794808
--
All Comments

By Doris
at 2010-03-13T04:50
at 2010-03-13T04:50

By Isla
at 2010-03-16T03:19
at 2010-03-16T03:19

By Franklin
at 2010-03-16T07:11
at 2010-03-16T07:11

By Susan
at 2010-03-18T15:54
at 2010-03-18T15:54

By Xanthe
at 2010-03-23T05:31
at 2010-03-23T05:31

By Jacob
at 2010-03-26T23:25
at 2010-03-26T23:25

By Agnes
at 2010-03-29T15:23
at 2010-03-29T15:23

By Tristan Cohan
at 2010-03-31T03:51
at 2010-03-31T03:51

By Jake
at 2010-04-02T17:55
at 2010-04-02T17:55

By Lucy
at 2010-04-03T10:36
at 2010-04-03T10:36

By Margaret
at 2010-04-06T02:48
at 2010-04-06T02:48

By Olive
at 2010-04-08T07:05
at 2010-04-08T07:05

By Cara
at 2010-04-11T14:25
at 2010-04-11T14:25

By Faithe
at 2010-04-11T16:21
at 2010-04-11T16:21

By Oscar
at 2010-04-14T12:20
at 2010-04-14T12:20

By Regina
at 2010-04-14T13:38
at 2010-04-14T13:38

By Ula
at 2010-04-14T19:02
at 2010-04-14T19:02

By Linda
at 2010-04-15T20:20
at 2010-04-15T20:20

By Thomas
at 2010-04-18T04:31
at 2010-04-18T04:31

By Anonymous
at 2010-04-18T16:08
at 2010-04-18T16:08

By Frederica
at 2010-04-21T23:51
at 2010-04-21T23:51

By Agatha
at 2010-04-25T13:40
at 2010-04-25T13:40

By Oscar
at 2010-04-28T18:19
at 2010-04-28T18:19

By Blanche
at 2010-04-29T23:33
at 2010-04-29T23:33

By Lauren
at 2010-05-03T23:39
at 2010-05-03T23:39

By Necoo
at 2010-05-07T08:22
at 2010-05-07T08:22

By Ivy
at 2010-05-07T22:58
at 2010-05-07T22:58

By Robert
at 2010-05-10T04:08
at 2010-05-10T04:08

By David
at 2010-05-12T15:58
at 2010-05-12T15:58

By Noah
at 2010-05-13T20:24
at 2010-05-13T20:24

By Thomas
at 2010-05-15T04:21
at 2010-05-15T04:21

By Suhail Hany
at 2010-05-16T23:27
at 2010-05-16T23:27

By William
at 2010-05-20T04:09
at 2010-05-20T04:09

By Bethany
at 2010-05-24T11:47
at 2010-05-24T11:47

By Zenobia
at 2010-05-27T13:25
at 2010-05-27T13:25

By Agnes
at 2010-05-28T12:00
at 2010-05-28T12:00

By Joseph
at 2010-05-29T11:33
at 2010-05-29T11:33

By Poppy
at 2010-05-30T08:55
at 2010-05-30T08:55

By Jacky
at 2010-06-01T06:20
at 2010-06-01T06:20

By Bethany
at 2010-06-02T12:32
at 2010-06-02T12:32

By Leila
at 2010-06-02T23:05
at 2010-06-02T23:05

By Liam
at 2010-06-05T10:31
at 2010-06-05T10:31

By Bethany
at 2010-06-09T22:40
at 2010-06-09T22:40

By Lily
at 2010-06-14T01:32
at 2010-06-14T01:32

By Lucy
at 2010-06-15T04:14
at 2010-06-15T04:14

By Edwina
at 2010-06-16T19:50
at 2010-06-16T19:50

By Wallis
at 2010-06-21T12:22
at 2010-06-21T12:22

By William
at 2010-06-24T22:16
at 2010-06-24T22:16

By Daph Bay
at 2010-06-25T19:48
at 2010-06-25T19:48

By Lucy
at 2010-06-26T14:32
at 2010-06-26T14:32

By Mia
at 2010-06-30T02:30
at 2010-06-30T02:30

By Oliver
at 2010-07-03T14:37
at 2010-07-03T14:37

By Selena
at 2010-07-04T17:39
at 2010-07-04T17:39

By John
at 2010-07-07T20:25
at 2010-07-07T20:25

By Barb Cronin
at 2010-07-10T19:52
at 2010-07-10T19:52

By John
at 2010-07-15T17:48
at 2010-07-15T17:48

By Kumar
at 2010-07-17T05:14
at 2010-07-17T05:14

By Frederica
at 2010-07-17T16:27
at 2010-07-17T16:27

By Kelly
at 2010-07-19T20:48
at 2010-07-19T20:48

By Dinah
at 2010-07-24T11:48
at 2010-07-24T11:48

By Lauren
at 2010-07-29T03:46
at 2010-07-29T03:46

By Hardy
at 2010-07-31T22:33
at 2010-07-31T22:33

By Dorothy
at 2010-08-03T04:18
at 2010-08-03T04:18

By Sierra Rose
at 2010-08-04T22:11
at 2010-08-04T22:11

By Ivy
at 2010-08-09T12:21
at 2010-08-09T12:21

By Faithe
at 2010-08-14T05:42
at 2010-08-14T05:42

By Agnes
at 2010-08-18T06:36
at 2010-08-18T06:36

By Quanna
at 2010-08-19T19:07
at 2010-08-19T19:07

By Zora
at 2010-08-23T08:52
at 2010-08-23T08:52

By Linda
at 2010-08-28T05:27
at 2010-08-28T05:27

By Una
at 2010-08-28T22:31
at 2010-08-28T22:31

By Cara
at 2010-08-31T01:36
at 2010-08-31T01:36

By Connor
at 2010-09-03T02:03
at 2010-09-03T02:03

By Caitlin
at 2010-09-05T21:13
at 2010-09-05T21:13

By Catherine
at 2010-09-09T21:31
at 2010-09-09T21:31

By Frederic
at 2010-09-10T11:09
at 2010-09-10T11:09

By Kumar
at 2010-09-14T11:09
at 2010-09-14T11:09

By Kama
at 2010-09-19T08:07
at 2010-09-19T08:07

By Ula
at 2010-09-24T06:33
at 2010-09-24T06:33

By Blanche
at 2010-09-26T21:19
at 2010-09-26T21:19

By Cara
at 2010-09-27T14:30
at 2010-09-27T14:30

By Noah
at 2010-09-30T07:50
at 2010-09-30T07:50

By Hedda
at 2010-10-01T21:59
at 2010-10-01T21:59

By Mason
at 2010-10-05T12:18
at 2010-10-05T12:18

By Oscar
at 2010-10-08T05:46
at 2010-10-08T05:46

By Anthony
at 2010-10-11T06:20
at 2010-10-11T06:20

By James
at 2010-10-14T14:34
at 2010-10-14T14:34

By Oscar
at 2010-10-15T19:23
at 2010-10-15T19:23

By Brianna
at 2010-10-20T18:34
at 2010-10-20T18:34

By Franklin
at 2010-10-22T01:35
at 2010-10-22T01:35
Related Posts
貴!外幣匯款須國外設帳 手續費數百近千

By Olga
at 2010-03-10T10:29
at 2010-03-10T10:29
最近的英鎊

By Margaret
at 2010-03-10T04:22
at 2010-03-10T04:22
加元勝過澳元

By Blanche
at 2010-03-09T18:22
at 2010-03-09T18:22
站上31.8!外資匯入、央行放手 台幣8日收盤升值1.3角

By Andy
at 2010-03-08T18:01
at 2010-03-08T18:01
外幣擂台/張聰益納入英磅 Cano新增瑞郎

By Sierra Rose
at 2010-03-08T16:59
at 2010-03-08T16:59