綠角<股海勝經> - 股票
By Michael
at 2021-04-26T01:30
at 2021-04-26T01:30
Table of Contents
我覺得指數化投資沒什麼問題 股債平衡策略也沒什麼問題
有問題的是綠角信徒們幾乎都不知道這套策略可能面臨到最糟的狀況是什麼
我自己台大醫學畢業 認識的醫生多到自己都數不清
偏偏這族群又是綠角信徒比例最高的
每次發現綠角信徒我都會問他們一個相同的問題:
"股債平衡策略歷史上的最糟表現為何?"
很可惜 我這群當年指考全國前百分之一甚至是千分之一的醫生朋友們
" 沒 有 一 個 人 答 得 出 來 " (是說我想綠角本人大概也答不出來)
大部分人都以為2000年網路泡沫 甚至2008年金融海嘯就是最糟的狀況
(覺得2020年三月就是最糟的搞笑咖也有 但很少就是了)
2000年的網路泡沫很接近正解了 畢竟是近代少數"股市十年期報酬率為負數"的時期
但考量到當時仍為降息循環 債券報酬率為正 因此股債平衡看起來還不算太糟
股債平衡策略可能面臨的最糟糕狀況 是1966~1982年的大衰退時期
當時為了抑制居高不下的通貨膨脹率 利率一路從中性水準往上拉高
整整十幾年的時間 聯邦基準利率都在5~15%間徘徊 最高甚至一度逼近20%
不消說 長期債券在這十幾年間的實質年化報酬率(扣除通膨)是負的 約為-4.2%
而股市受到高漲的利率影響 實質年化報酬率也是負的 約為-0.4%
(以上數據節自Stocks for the long run第五版 第五章)
股債平衡? 我是不知道要怎麼樣平衡 才能把兩個都負的東西加總成正的啦
更何況還是長達15年的時間 即使定期定額(攤平)
也頂多是讓實質的負報酬率更接近零一些而已
至於為什麼綠角派的好像都刻意忽略這段歷史呢?
原因也很單純 因為最早的指數型ETF(謝版友訂正)是1975年由John Bogle創立的
換言之 如果從這時候開始做回測 根本不會看見指數化投資當時已經仆街十年這件事
然而 當時沒有ETF 不表示與當時相仿的經濟環境不會再次出現
最近原物料大熱 通膨蠢蠢欲動 以為有無限QE股市就能漲到天邊去?
萬一通膨無法壓抑 別說QE了 FED甚至可能被迫"提早並加速升息"
這可是跟大家這幾十年熟悉的"因經濟穩定而緩步升息"有天淵之別
倘若真演變為如此 屆時股債平衡策略表現會如何?
綠角信徒們 你們真的有想過股債平衡策略未來可能面臨的最糟狀況是什麼嗎?
希望你們已經真正了解並做好心理準備 因為那確實非常人所能忍
--
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