盤勢格局 - 期貨

By Tracy
at 2008-04-11T18:42
at 2008-04-11T18:42
Table of Contents
今天又是收週線的日子,不過先就大盤今日的狀況開始談起吧…。
昨日論及,今日盤勢對多方而言關鍵在於補量,而個人預期今日多方
最多是量平,可是,今日大盤確明顯補量了,而且收盤收至今日相對
的高檔附近,不過今日大盤量增的過速,可以說市場追價意願高脹,
但亦似有短線獲利了結的跡象,至始大盤今日急速放量,但就價收至
今日相對高點來看,週一大盤尚有高點可期,不過若由台期指的量價
結構來看,台期指為量縮作2日背離,與現貨今日量增陽線走勢相佐
,也就是產生現貨與期指量不對稱的現象,現貨為量價線皆無背離,
而台期指為2日量縮過高,就台期指本身來看,多方於此似乎有動能
不繼的狀況產生;而摩台亦為量縮價高作背離;而金融期為量大增收
上影線,金融期與現貨量皆急增,而金融期高檔逢壓較現貨明確,因
此,雖金融期今為量出長陽,但也收了上影線,為量增價高線不純,
所以個人預期,近日金融股會領先電子、傳產作整理的可能性較高;
唯今日電子期量平攻高收至相對高檔,是今日量價線三法較為穩健的
指數,由此推斷,週一電子將續強…。
綜合上述作結,不論現貨、台期指、金融期、摩台期,今日皆有量過
大或量價背離的問題,但就今日收盤…價能收至相對高點來看,週一
尚有高點要交代,可是見高後走低的機率極高,也就是說週一除了電
子之外,都會陷入初步的整理,而因電子量價線結構較為完整,週一
若逢盤整時,電子會撐盤,或者說電子會是週一表現最亮眼的族群,
結論便是,就大盤來看,週一收黑K或帶上影線的K線機會極高,不
過也許是價漲黑K或是價漲收上影線的可能性也是有的,不一定是價
跌,若以此為斷,週一對多方較利的場合就是整理時要量縮,且現貨
低點不可收盤跌破今日之低點,若多方週一再欲強襲上攻,那量就不
能縮,可以量平、可以量略增,過度的量縮或放量皆為強攻時多方不
利,若見現貨量縮至 1500 億以下,或過度放量至 2500 億以上作強
攻,多單就要擇機退場觀望,靜待回測支撐的狀況後,再作後續的判
斷與動作為宜。
而週一盤勢雖然極可能進入盤整,但就從週線的角度來看,現貨、台
期指、摩台期…等各期指皆呈現多方訊,金融期成量增多方吞噬,電
子期為量平價線近純,而現貨、台期指、摩台期為「晨星轉折」的訊
號,由此觀之,大盤的 9049 點必定會來挑戰!只要後續量價線配合
得宜,盤勢再創波段高點已是咫尺之距,快則下週就有機會價創新高
;而就現貨的週線來看,今週為多方表態週,所以現貨本週週線低點
,便是多方最強支撐,這裡不被空方摜破,就沒有多方反轉走空的疑
慮,所以下週大盤的週區間為 8619 點至 9049 點,下週盤勢格局應
該是先整理後續攻高的格局為大,所以近日該多注意盤勢量縮壓回時
的多方進場佈局(加碼)點。
而大盤週一短支撐 8840 點,壓力 9049 點,今日現貨雖然收盤收在
昨日提及的壓力點 8915 點之下,但盤中有作突破的動作,而 8915
點為 9049 點當日陰線高低點的中值,今日多方盤中作越過,已預示
了向上挑戰 9049 點的企圖心,所以就多方日、週線的角度…我找了
多方支撐三價,分別為短線的 8840 點、次為 8681 點、最強支撐在
8619 點,個人判斷以目前多方的力道,最弱只會來測 8681 點的支撐
,基本上 8619 點近日是看不到的,而空方若連多方短支撐 8840 點
也測不動…我直接講…盤勢必創新高!若判斷無誤,盤勢下週為多方
週。
--
繼續發廢文……斂財 XDDD
--
夜空に星が瞬くように
溶けたこころは離れない
たとえこの手が離れても
ふたりがそれを忘れぬ限り…
--
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期貨
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