烏雲已散!高盛:美國未來幾年不太可能出 - 股票
By Gary
at 2020-01-01T16:52
at 2020-01-01T16:52
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://is.gd/rm15y5
2.原文內容:
〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕僅在幾個月之前,由於美中貿易戰延燒、美債殖利率倒掛、聯準
會3度降息等因素,幾乎所有華爾街人士都擔憂美國經濟衰退即將到來。不過高盛集團週
二 (31 日) 表示,美國經濟從結構上來看,未來幾年都不太可能會出現衰退。
《CNBC》報導,高盛對當前美國經濟潛在風險進行評估,發現美國經濟自1980年代開始的
「大溫和」(Great Moderation)結構仍然穩固,其特徵是以持續成長為支撐的低水平動
盪和溫和通膨。
高盛經濟學家哈祖斯(Jan Hatzius)與梅里克(David Mericle)在報告中寫道:「我們
認為當前經濟在結構上不太容易陷入衰退,儘管可能出現新風險,但近期衰退的主要來源
,如石油衝擊、通膨過熱、金融失衡,現在似乎都不太令人擔憂。因此,軟著陸的前景看
起來比人們普遍預期的要好。」
高盛經濟學家並未排除衰退的風險,但指一些主要不利因素已經消散,美國已基本實現能
源獨立,聯準會官員為通貨膨脹不足而更加煩惱,自金融危機爆發後,金融體系的槓桿程
度也有所降低。
不過高盛指出,股票資產價格上漲和企業債務激增仍是威脅,另外,財政政策也被視為是
風險之一,提醒「在政治兩極化、不確定性和功能失調的時代可能會出現新的風險」。
3.心得/評論:
本來就不太可能衰退,全球金融唯一的風險就是
GDP若未來1~2%穩定成長,股市年年漲20~30%
這才是風險,因為投資人已對未來太樂觀
目前勉強還算可以接受的狀態,本益比也不高
要是2020年在漲20~30%,金融海嘯估計就要來了
--
https://is.gd/rm15y5
2.原文內容:
〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕僅在幾個月之前,由於美中貿易戰延燒、美債殖利率倒掛、聯準
會3度降息等因素,幾乎所有華爾街人士都擔憂美國經濟衰退即將到來。不過高盛集團週
二 (31 日) 表示,美國經濟從結構上來看,未來幾年都不太可能會出現衰退。
《CNBC》報導,高盛對當前美國經濟潛在風險進行評估,發現美國經濟自1980年代開始的
「大溫和」(Great Moderation)結構仍然穩固,其特徵是以持續成長為支撐的低水平動
盪和溫和通膨。
高盛經濟學家哈祖斯(Jan Hatzius)與梅里克(David Mericle)在報告中寫道:「我們
認為當前經濟在結構上不太容易陷入衰退,儘管可能出現新風險,但近期衰退的主要來源
,如石油衝擊、通膨過熱、金融失衡,現在似乎都不太令人擔憂。因此,軟著陸的前景看
起來比人們普遍預期的要好。」
高盛經濟學家並未排除衰退的風險,但指一些主要不利因素已經消散,美國已基本實現能
源獨立,聯準會官員為通貨膨脹不足而更加煩惱,自金融危機爆發後,金融體系的槓桿程
度也有所降低。
不過高盛指出,股票資產價格上漲和企業債務激增仍是威脅,另外,財政政策也被視為是
風險之一,提醒「在政治兩極化、不確定性和功能失調的時代可能會出現新的風險」。
3.心得/評論:
本來就不太可能衰退,全球金融唯一的風險就是
GDP若未來1~2%穩定成長,股市年年漲20~30%
這才是風險,因為投資人已對未來太樂觀
目前勉強還算可以接受的狀態,本益比也不高
要是2020年在漲20~30%,金融海嘯估計就要來了
--
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