恭喜你，踏入八奇思考領域的第一步
不是啦
這是大三下會討論到的議題
說難不難，說簡單又不簡單
因為我數學不好，貨銀國金乃至投資學後半段都沒學好
只好用最簡化的方式來講
你想問的是
為什麼債券殖利率漲→債券價跌→股市也價跌
吧?
什麼資金,熱錢,買低賣高,資產配置
這些都是樹，不是林，甚至不是山
答案只有一個:
市場預期聯準會加速升息，所以股票下跌
也就是說，今天是因為債市劇變
引發市場對聯準會未來政策的臆測
提前反應在股市上
但目前看來聯準會的反應是:WTF?
延伸閱讀:
https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5101590
https://reurl.cc/Gd4d6y
---以下故事---
華爾街日報這篇報導寫得很清楚了
https://reurl.cc/OXGXmA
引用最後兩段
"Thursday’s move extends a recent climb in government bond yields that has
started to capture the attention of investors across a range of asset
classes. The yield on the 10-year note, a bellwether for borrowing costs on
everything from mortgages to corporate loans, has jumped to more than 1.5%
from around 1% in a matter of weeks, lifted by increased expectations that
vaccines and government stimulus efforts will accelerate growth and inflation.
"While Federal Reserve officials have said the yield’s climb toward
pre-pandemic levels marks a return to normalcy and isn’t problematic, some
investors are worried that a pickup inflation could force the central bank to
raise interest rates faster than expected, said Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. rates
strategist at TD Securities."
首先再來說我們的合法賭場
因為賭客們都想當先知
但實際上沒有時空旅人來報明牌
駁筊/觀落陰又不是那麼可靠
因此賭客們會找一些蛛絲馬跡
希望能比別人早一步預測大盤未來走向
我們稱這些蛛絲馬跡叫"領先指標"
10年期公債殖利率是利率市場的領先指標
現在突然暴升，而暴升的原因是失業率有改善的跡象
且美國打疫苗的進度逐漸樂觀
市場就想說，最壞已經過去了
未來是不是利率要漲了?
那FED是不是要升息了?
FED升息不就表示
行情已經過了，經濟已經轉好
為了抑制通膨，熱錢要收回去了
大家可以先回家了?
於是就爭先恐後的下車
--
不是啦
這是大三下會討論到的議題
說難不難，說簡單又不簡單
因為我數學不好，貨銀國金乃至投資學後半段都沒學好
只好用最簡化的方式來講
你想問的是
為什麼債券殖利率漲→債券價跌→股市也價跌
吧?
什麼資金,熱錢,買低賣高,資產配置
這些都是樹，不是林，甚至不是山
答案只有一個:
市場預期聯準會加速升息，所以股票下跌
也就是說，今天是因為債市劇變
引發市場對聯準會未來政策的臆測
提前反應在股市上
但目前看來聯準會的反應是:WTF?
延伸閱讀:
https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5101590
https://reurl.cc/Gd4d6y
---以下故事---
華爾街日報這篇報導寫得很清楚了
https://reurl.cc/OXGXmA
引用最後兩段
"Thursday’s move extends a recent climb in government bond yields that has
started to capture the attention of investors across a range of asset
classes. The yield on the 10-year note, a bellwether for borrowing costs on
everything from mortgages to corporate loans, has jumped to more than 1.5%
from around 1% in a matter of weeks, lifted by increased expectations that
vaccines and government stimulus efforts will accelerate growth and inflation.
"While Federal Reserve officials have said the yield’s climb toward
pre-pandemic levels marks a return to normalcy and isn’t problematic, some
investors are worried that a pickup inflation could force the central bank to
raise interest rates faster than expected, said Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. rates
strategist at TD Securities."
首先再來說我們的合法賭場
因為賭客們都想當先知
但實際上沒有時空旅人來報明牌
駁筊/觀落陰又不是那麼可靠
因此賭客們會找一些蛛絲馬跡
希望能比別人早一步預測大盤未來走向
我們稱這些蛛絲馬跡叫"領先指標"
10年期公債殖利率是利率市場的領先指標
現在突然暴升，而暴升的原因是失業率有改善的跡象
且美國打疫苗的進度逐漸樂觀
市場就想說，最壞已經過去了
未來是不是利率要漲了?
那FED是不是要升息了?
FED升息不就表示
行情已經過了，經濟已經轉好
為了抑制通膨，熱錢要收回去了
大家可以先回家了?
於是就爭先恐後的下車
--
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