為什麼GME可以被放空到超過100% - 股票

By Jacky
at 2021-01-29T11:14
at 2021-01-29T11:14
Table of Contents
如題,小妹百思不得其解,查了多方資料後得到以下結論
文長,無興趣者可跳過,有興趣者請看看這個邏輯正不正確
首先,第一步是做空機構的GME short position已經到很高的狀態
但做空機構的short都不是naked short,因為理論上他們無權使用naked short
至少需要已經借券或locate券在哪裡才能short,所以這時沒有naked short的問題
然後接著reddit上爆掉,散戶開始瘋狂買GME,而這些散戶多是用無手續費券商
如Robinhood, TD等,這些券商是用一種叫payment for order flow的方法賺錢
就是把交易賣給特定造市商去執行交易,讓造市商賺bid-ask spread(價差)
而造市商在提供流動性的同時,是被SEC容許做短線naked short的交易
因為假設現在有人要買2330,但沒人要賣2330怎麼辦?造市商就可以先賣2330給這人,
之後等有人要賣2330再補回來,造成短線naked short的狀況。
所以呢,這些券商在短時間內大量導引了很多購買GME的單給了少數幾家造市商
造市商直接naked short去滿足這些單,造成short position越漲越高
很多散戶認為是做空機構繼續放空,
事實上是這些造市商因為賣股票給散戶尚未回補,造成做空部位一直上升
但不料這次狀況不一樣,很多人要買,沒有人要賣
做空機構持續不計損失的回補,等到造市商意識過來,就發現連他們自己都回補不了了
所以現在造市商不敢再繼續naked short,因此根本無法提供買方流動性
如果真的有券要賣,造市商就自己買去回補了,也不會放回市場上給其他人買
因此造市商直接就說我不執行GME的買方交易,於是下游券商只好關閉GME的買單
變成只能賣不能買的狀況。
那現在流動性嚴重不足,交割日馬上就要到的狀況,造市商可能會有違約風險
前幾天散戶買的GME可能都還沒交割完畢,造市商交割的出來嗎?
如果變成fail to deliver就是嚴重違約,而且是不只一家造市商違約
當然SEC之後可能會調查會罰
但是現在有多家造市商一起違約的風險,這會不會造成美股的系統性風險?
前天美股大跌,美債殖利率下降,狀似就是有部分投資人看到這個風險先逃命了?
但是我遍查美國媒體都沒看到有人寫這個理論,因此想請板上高手幫我看看
我這樣想邏輯是對的嗎???
這邊都只討論現股,暫時不加上選擇權,但因為選擇權也是對賭,
導致券商要持續買GME股票避險,現在流動性不足,讓選擇權只能平倉不能加倉也很合理
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