泡你老沫[鄉民總經觀察20210307] - 理財
By Caroline
at 2021-03-07T09:34
at 2021-03-07T09:34
Table of Contents
無論任何時候,總有一派力量,堅稱市場是泡沫,即便指數已跌落谷底,都有人喊還要壞
三倍,對Perma Bear死空頭而言,2008的QE是空頭,2011歐債危機是空頭,2015石油危機
是空頭,2018稅改是空頭,武漢肺炎大舉債自然也是空頭,任何時刻都是泡沫。
對市場參與者而言,辯證泡沫與否並無意義,能否在資產吹漲的過程中,也讓自己的資產
隨之成長,能趕在泡沫破滅之前離場就好。而當下,筆者認為離總經崩壞還有數年時間,
並非驚恐出逃之時。
本週公布的ISM PMI與非農,宣告了美帝已擺脫武漢肺炎,開始進入高成長的復甦階段,
與此呼應,本週六參議院也以51:49通過了1.9T財政方案。
扭轉2008頹勢的主因之一,是FED的QE,但當時主要救市力量卻僅集中在FED的貨幣政策,
來自白宮的財政刺激少很多。如今,QE4力道不只更強,還加上白宮的財政刺激,2020年
3T,2021也近3T,路上還有基建3T在談。
FED QE,白宮財政刺激,民間有錢,三方合力推升經濟成長,這才是美帝現階段的正確敘
事。對任何喊泡沫的大師,請容筆者回嗆一句,泡你老沫!
本期目錄:
1.利率反應實體經濟,實體經濟帶動股市方向
2.利率揚升,對房市有助無損
3.利率方向,指出通膨方向
4.利率與股市方向的瞎猜
礙於版規,其餘內容請自行搜尋,謝謝
--
by 鄉民總經觀察
--
三倍,對Perma Bear死空頭而言,2008的QE是空頭,2011歐債危機是空頭,2015石油危機
是空頭,2018稅改是空頭,武漢肺炎大舉債自然也是空頭,任何時刻都是泡沫。
對市場參與者而言,辯證泡沫與否並無意義,能否在資產吹漲的過程中,也讓自己的資產
隨之成長,能趕在泡沫破滅之前離場就好。而當下,筆者認為離總經崩壞還有數年時間,
並非驚恐出逃之時。
本週公布的ISM PMI與非農,宣告了美帝已擺脫武漢肺炎,開始進入高成長的復甦階段,
與此呼應,本週六參議院也以51:49通過了1.9T財政方案。
扭轉2008頹勢的主因之一,是FED的QE,但當時主要救市力量卻僅集中在FED的貨幣政策,
來自白宮的財政刺激少很多。如今,QE4力道不只更強,還加上白宮的財政刺激,2020年
3T,2021也近3T,路上還有基建3T在談。
FED QE,白宮財政刺激,民間有錢,三方合力推升經濟成長,這才是美帝現階段的正確敘
事。對任何喊泡沫的大師,請容筆者回嗆一句,泡你老沫!
本期目錄:
1.利率反應實體經濟,實體經濟帶動股市方向
2.利率揚升,對房市有助無損
3.利率方向,指出通膨方向
4.利率與股市方向的瞎猜
礙於版規,其餘內容請自行搜尋,謝謝
--
by 鄉民總經觀察
--
Tags:
理財
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