比較投資0050和台北房子的10年績效 - 股票
By Erin
at 2020-10-01T23:42
at 2020-10-01T23:42
Table of Contents
買房子開槓桿,買股票也可以開槓桿
本人非精算師,以下皆為概算
假設初期資金500萬
一次買入0050,並質押借貸
第一輪可借到6成,300萬。再全數買入0050
第二輪質押可借到180萬
第三輪質押可借到108萬
第四輪質押可借到64.8萬,再全部質押提高維持率
此時你將擁有1152.8萬的0050(全部質押),借貸652.8萬
維持率177%,槓桿2.31倍。利率約2%
考慮10年以上長期投資,排除特殊方案,EX:元大證金 用0050質押利率1.56%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
如果拿500萬去買房子,預計買入市價2000萬的房子,貸款7成5
(並非所有房子都能貸到市價的八成)
貸款1500萬,房貸利率2010~2020降息前約1.6%
貸款20年,每月本利需攤還7.3萬
預估房租每月2.5萬,一年30萬(本人及朋友租房經驗)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
持有房屋(房貸),每月需存下7.3-2.5=4.8萬繳房貸
持有0050情況下,可以把4.8萬拿去償還質押貸款
且0050每年約有3%的配息(1152.8萬*3%=34.5萬)
https://reurl.cc/N6Qn9m
粗略試算表如上
預計7~8年可把質押借貸還清
這邊未考慮房子及0050整體報酬率
因為過去資料不代表未來
試算後發現,其實質押借貸買入0050,投報率不輸開槓桿買房
缺點是頭三年內發生大跌可能會有斷頭風險
第四年維持率已達281%,可接受股市腰斬(理論上XD)
此篇只是粗算,歡迎股市精算師提供詳細回測
備註1:只把大的費用納入,房屋稅、地價稅等萬元以下的成本不計入
備註2:預設質押利率2%、房貸利率1.6%是依照今年降息前的數字
備註3:投資一定有風險,投資前請詳閱公開說明書
※ 引述《john199308 (飆股小小虎↗)》之銘言:
: 簡易比較2010-2020這10年來投資0050和台北房子的績效:
: https://i.imgur.com/ykhQlNq.jpg
: 第一張圖是0050的還原月K,0050在2009年12月的收盤價是39.9,在2019年12月的收盤價
: 是93.2,報酬率是233.6%。
: https://i.imgur.com/Fiyw9hV.jpg
: 第二張圖是信義房屋的台北房價指數,在2009年12月的台北地區指數為77.03,2019年12
: 月台北地區指數為127.28,報酬率為165.2%,若房子有拿去出租假設年報酬率有3%(用77.
: 03+127.28的平均=102.16當作平均房價來算年報酬率),出租房屋貢獻點數為102.16*3%*1
: 0年=30.6,加上去後整體投報率為205%,這已經不管房屋折舊,也不含房子有的沒的成本
: ,而且有租好租滿的情況。
: 結論:
: 投資0050的10年績效是233.6%。
: 投資台北房子的10年績效是205%。
: 這樣看起來長期投資0050是屌打投資台北房子,而且投資0050也不會有大量資金長期被套
: 住的問題,運用可以更靈活,隨時想領一點出來都可以。
: 雖然算法有點簡略,不知道有沒有漏考慮什麼呢~~?
--
本人非精算師,以下皆為概算
假設初期資金500萬
一次買入0050,並質押借貸
第一輪可借到6成,300萬。再全數買入0050
第二輪質押可借到180萬
第三輪質押可借到108萬
第四輪質押可借到64.8萬,再全部質押提高維持率
此時你將擁有1152.8萬的0050(全部質押),借貸652.8萬
維持率177%,槓桿2.31倍。利率約2%
考慮10年以上長期投資,排除特殊方案,EX:元大證金 用0050質押利率1.56%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
如果拿500萬去買房子,預計買入市價2000萬的房子,貸款7成5
(並非所有房子都能貸到市價的八成)
貸款1500萬,房貸利率2010~2020降息前約1.6%
貸款20年,每月本利需攤還7.3萬
預估房租每月2.5萬,一年30萬(本人及朋友租房經驗)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
持有房屋(房貸),每月需存下7.3-2.5=4.8萬繳房貸
持有0050情況下,可以把4.8萬拿去償還質押貸款
且0050每年約有3%的配息(1152.8萬*3%=34.5萬)
https://reurl.cc/N6Qn9m
粗略試算表如上
預計7~8年可把質押借貸還清
這邊未考慮房子及0050整體報酬率
因為過去資料不代表未來
試算後發現,其實質押借貸買入0050,投報率不輸開槓桿買房
缺點是頭三年內發生大跌可能會有斷頭風險
第四年維持率已達281%,可接受股市腰斬(理論上XD)
此篇只是粗算,歡迎股市精算師提供詳細回測
備註1:只把大的費用納入,房屋稅、地價稅等萬元以下的成本不計入
備註2:預設質押利率2%、房貸利率1.6%是依照今年降息前的數字
備註3:投資一定有風險,投資前請詳閱公開說明書
※ 引述《john199308 (飆股小小虎↗)》之銘言:
: 簡易比較2010-2020這10年來投資0050和台北房子的績效:
: https://i.imgur.com/ykhQlNq.jpg
: 第一張圖是0050的還原月K,0050在2009年12月的收盤價是39.9,在2019年12月的收盤價
: 是93.2,報酬率是233.6%。
: https://i.imgur.com/Fiyw9hV.jpg
: 第二張圖是信義房屋的台北房價指數,在2009年12月的台北地區指數為77.03,2019年12
: 月台北地區指數為127.28,報酬率為165.2%,若房子有拿去出租假設年報酬率有3%(用77.
: 03+127.28的平均=102.16當作平均房價來算年報酬率),出租房屋貢獻點數為102.16*3%*1
: 0年=30.6,加上去後整體投報率為205%,這已經不管房屋折舊,也不含房子有的沒的成本
: ,而且有租好租滿的情況。
: 結論:
: 投資0050的10年績效是233.6%。
: 投資台北房子的10年績效是205%。
: 這樣看起來長期投資0050是屌打投資台北房子,而且投資0050也不會有大量資金長期被套
: 住的問題,運用可以更靈活,隨時想領一點出來都可以。
: 雖然算法有點簡略,不知道有沒有漏考慮什麼呢~~?
--
Tags:
股票
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