殖利率可能會變成台股下一波題材? - 股票
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By Odelette
at 2021-03-06T11:43
at 2021-03-06T11:43
Table of Contents
剛剛一邊吃早餐在想
什麼半導體、原物料、航運、機械、電子...等
各行各業都有所謂的超級週期
這是由供需上帶動的循環
但如果從人口上分析
似乎也有可能出現人口上的超級週期
(例如「戰後嬰兒潮」
過去幾十年很多產業是跟著戰後嬰兒潮一起變化
近年這些嬰兒變老人,也帶動很多高齡化商機需求)
從這個角度上來看
台股似乎也出現了「開戶嬰兒潮」、「交易嬰兒潮」
(2020年新開戶的人數超過67萬人,相較2019年的34萬人成長一倍
實際交易人數更破紀錄達到438萬,超越2019年的300萬)
若
1.假設「開戶、交易嬰兒潮」偏好的標的,
會隨著知識成長(接觸股市時間成長)慢慢變化
從過去半年的大環境氣氛下,股市嬰兒潮所學到的「知識」
很可能是有關半導體(台積電)、電動車(特斯拉)、供需(貨櫃航運)...等「知識」
2.且每得到一次「新知識」
就像是學到新技能時想趕快應用一樣
便促使嬰兒潮資金快速湧入,導致該題材股出現波段漲幅
3.那麼預測未來的話
3月份是各家上市櫃公布財報跟股利的時間
可以想見的是在未來一兩周
媒體新聞上會出現大量的「殖利率」相關報導與教學
(何謂殖利率、殖利率如何計算、今年殖利率排名....等)
這些對長年在股市司空見慣的事情
可能會對嬰兒潮成為新鮮的知識,加深入場慾望
導致推升今年殖利率行情較過往亮眼
從這個角度上來看的話,若假設上邏輯是成立的
在電子、科技股回檔的時間,殖利率可能會變成台股下一波題材?
--
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at 2021-09-12T07:48
at 2021-09-12T07:48
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at 2021-09-16T20:56
at 2021-09-16T20:56
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