武漢肺炎…三階段影響股市 - 股票
By Tracy
at 2020-01-27T16:34
at 2020-01-27T16:34
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://www.udn.com/news/amp/story/6811/4307579
2.原文內容:
俗稱「武漢肺炎」的新型冠狀病毒疫情持續擴散,促使投資人尋求從2002-2003年SARS疫
情爆發的歷史經驗,探索未來市場走向。分析師指出,市場反應可能分為三階段:疫情擴
散的憂慮短期衝擊信心,航空、旅遊及精品類股可能回檔,中期市場將回穩進入觀望階段
,而在各國出手控制疫情後,股市終將回升。
繼加拿大也出現首例武漢肺炎確診病例後,美國也出現第三例。目前全球四大洲15國已出
現超過2,000例病例,主要仍集中在中國大陸。大陸26日警告,新型病毒的傳播能力似乎
增強。
面對疫情升溫,投資人也尋求從2003年同為冠狀病毒的SARS病毒肆虐期間經驗,掌握未來
市場走向。分析師指出,在美股近來價位已高之際,最新疫情提供投資人保持審慎的另一
理由,短期美股可能小幅回檔,建議先退場觀望、持防禦態度。在SARS疫情最嚴重時,美
國航空類股累計跌超過30%,旅遊與精品類股也將受衝擊。
但歷史經驗顯示衝擊只是暫時的。高盛首席亞太股票策略師慕天輝說,市場短線行情取決
於每天新增的病例數,一旦新增病例開始減緩,最終會觸底。
根據彭博數據,2002年11月出現首例SARS病例,但標普500指數在一年後漲了約15%。
Natixis分析師拉佛第指出,過去疫情爆發時,市場會有兩階段發展:先是膝反射式的拋
售,接著進入觀望階段以了解是否為更系統性的問題,在當局完全掌握情況後,市場就會
大幅反彈。摩根大通亞股與量化策略師達斯也說,過去爆發這類事件的歷史經驗顯示,市
場常在疫情最嚴重時觸及底部。
3.心得/評論:
SARS經驗目前還在第一階段各國還沒出手 等到疫情驅緩時 股市終將回升!
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