杏昌(1788) - 股票

By Suhail Hany
at 2020-07-19T21:42
at 2020-07-19T21:42
Table of Contents
1. 標的:杏昌(1788)
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得:多
3. 分析/正文
【基本面】:
《1》 杏昌主要是台灣洗腎材料供應商,其中營收分布如下:人工腎臟及血液迴路管42.4
6%、紅血球生成素, 藥水類27.75%、其他17.54%、洗腎機, 維修保養類5.14%。
https://imgur.com/OsbvT01
《2》健保署統計,2018年給付慢性腎臟病高達513億,占健保總額近7%,就醫人數達36
萬4千人,腹膜透析、血液透析人數達到9萬人,醫療費用一年燒掉約449億元。2019年10
大燒錢疾病,慢性腎臟疾病再度居首,39.7萬人共耗費了533.16億元。
台灣洗腎較歐美品質佳,病人存活率更長,所以就好像一個水桶,出水量很少,進水量卻
很大,導致水桶容易累積,洗腎人數屢創紀錄。
《3》台灣人愛吃美食,每晚夜市鹽酥雞攤販排隊人潮有目共睹,不容小看台灣肥宅威力
,這些人將來有一部分都是杏昌的重要營收。
《4》杏昌從2004年到今年連續17年配息,且每年都填息,近五年平均值利率約在5.6%
https://imgur.com/IR0yEnM
《5》近五年每季皆無大筆的業外損失,可見杏昌專注於本業。
https://i.imgur.com/6jQ3X9I.jpg
《6》帳上現金流近15季僅有2季是負的,這個持續追蹤即可。
《7》負載比近期來到50%,但較前四季下降6%,且逐季下降,持續追蹤即可。
綜合以上原因,推薦「長期」持有杏昌(1788),屬防禦性標的,欲短線獲利者勿買進。
4. 進退場機制:(非長期投資者,必須有停損機制)
104以下分批收購,採倒金字塔操作
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