本月期指壓低結算機率恐高 - 期貨
By Daph Bay
at 2011-06-13T21:13
at 2011-06-13T21:13
Table of Contents
這是我的一點心得..本月台指期有可能會壓在相對低點進行結算
這個盤六月初一直在9000附近震盪..表現強過國際盤.但是週五與今日
台股與台指期的跌幅卻是國際盤的兩倍多..尤其週五一根長黑貫破5.10.20日線
今日連季線與半年線也應聲而破..籌碼部分更能看出.外資在六月初時
就不斷增加BUY PUT與期貨空單部位...分明就是結算前要徹底殺多.
至於這個盤結算前有沒下探風險? 答案是有的..甚至不排除壓在最低
目前台指期.電子期與金融期.外資通通是淨空單.尤其電子期的水位更是達到
近2000口.選擇權今日雖然BUY CALL增加.但你不妨將它看成鎖單
畢竟目前外資BUY PUT賺很大.口數也遠多於BUY CALL.
加上外資這兩天都大砍150億左右..融資這兩天也幾乎沒有減..
台指期oi仍高達50000多口.等於讓結算前拉抬機會下降..再者.本月合約最低在8650..
今日最低8683.現貨今收是8712.現階段外資如果要獲取最大利益...
結算前急速壓低會是比較好的選項.況且現在的環境也不支持拉抬.
尤其現在距結算只剩兩天.如果跌破8650.讓這個月的多單部位全數處於套牢.
觸發新一波殺多機會就會升高.這也是我不敢看好這個月結算行情原因
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期貨
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