有人不停損的嗎？ - 投資
By Madame
at 2013-04-29T14:45
at 2013-04-29T14:45
Table of Contents
這兩個點另外回一篇騙點稿費吧
推 ntoufatman:拉長才有勝算其實可以用其他方式佐證，例如你要獲利%數 04/29 09:16
→ ntoufatman:多，你除了用大槓桿以外，只能用時間去等待那個%數出來 04/29 09:17
→ ntoufatman:所以獲利%數大，至少時間長是一般無槓桿、投機商品要的 04/29 09:17
→ ntoufatman:條件，例外的是飆股之類的東西 囧 04/29 09:18
推 Casval:倒不是說djo先生錯，而是最後來這麼一句太跳痛。長期的定義 04/29 12:25
→ Casval:是什麼？評估勝算的原則又是什麼？這些都沒有只來句"長期才 04/29 12:26
推 Casval:有勝算"，沒什麼道理可言。市場上誰最長期？套牢者也。 04/29 12:28
推 Casval:筆誤，是「拉長」而非「長期」，但意思相同。 04/29 12:29
首先原文拉長線的理由在此：
拉長線
法人以往贏過散戶的有兩點，
坑死人不償命的點差，與資訊，
在網路交易盛行的今天，點差這個劣勢總算幾乎沒有了。
再來就是資訊，
資訊的價值隨著時間價值衰退非常快，
法人或許能比你早1分鐘知道數據，
或者前幾天賄賂哪個高官實施政策
但我想應該很難猜出一年後的Bernake想法，
拉長，才有勝算
還看不清楚為何會有這結論嗎？
因為做短是負和市場，
做短，獲利值小(因為容易停損停利出場)，
每交易一次，就會被吃幾個點差(現貨更多就不說了)，
你一個短波段要賺30點，點差1點，
你一波的獲利就少了3%，更別提你如果輸錢還是要付這交易費。
相同條件下，你做長，
一個波段拿100點~300點， 同樣點差1點，
獲利被拿走1%跟被拿走3%來比，這是個很巨大的差異。
我不知道你的操作模式，
這是個數學上可以見到的結果。
我記得有看過FXCM上的統計結果，超過八成以上的用戶是輸家，
而使用保證金的，幾乎都是做短，
我想這有一些統計上的顯著性。
資訊面的不對稱就不多提了， 這很明顯是個大劣勢。
為何做長才有勝算，
因為只有做長，才能把負和市場拉到接近零和市場，
這樣，才有一搏的機會。
推 Ruminative:dj說的沒錯，我不確定股票的本質是什麼？所以想跟您討 04/29 14:11
→ Ruminative:教。我自己的答案是正常的股市上漲動力，來自於人類想 04/29 14:12
→ Ruminative:要更好生活的需求和通膨預期(部份人為)，另有一個我不 04/29 14:13
→ Ruminative:太確定是不是，人口紅利增長，想請教您的想法。 04/29 14:15
→ Ruminative:另外用"長期"這個字眼實在是不太準確，我道歉。 04/29 14:16
→ Ruminative:凱因斯說：長期來說，我們都死了。我說那一句話，主要 04/29 14:17
→ Ruminative:是本身對被動投資方式的未來感到疑惑。以一個人生命長 04/29 14:18
→ Ruminative:度，大約65退休，基於風險考量，可能要提前一段時間 04/29 14:19
股票的本質是公司營運，股價是人們預期值。
我不能跟你說股價到底會不會漲，
但拉到極長線來看，股價最終會反應公司營運。
指數上的公司只要持續營運，
賺的錢終究會反映在基本面上。
所以，股票長期向上。
http://www.vectorgrader.com/indicators/japan-price-earnings
日本的股市是沒漲，
但公司的內在價值逐漸上升了。
http://chinarose.blog.hexun.com.tw/37118012_d.html
巴菲特將美國公司股票，看作是特殊形態的債券
那怎麼選到有點長期，又不太長期的股票呢？(經濟循環內)
這點，就是另一個大主題了，
請洽隔壁版~~~
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