新聞解析/現在不買600元台積電四個理由 - 股票

By Isla
at 2021-01-18T20:18
at 2021-01-18T20:18
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:https://udn.com/news/story/7253/5183388
2.原文內容:
台股本波上漲一度衝上萬六大關,護國神山台積電(2330)更是寫下625元的歷史天價,
不少投資人都在問,600元的台積電還可以買嗎?法人認為,有四大理由現在不宜買進台
積電,建議不追高靜待進場時機到來。
台積電去年稅後純益5,178.9億元,每股純益19.97元;預估今年第1季合併營收127~130億
美元,若以新台幣27.95元兌 1美元匯率假設,毛利率預計介於50.5~52.5%,營業利益率
預計介於39.5~ 41.5%。
台積電去年資本支出172.4億美元,預估今年資本支將介於250~280 億美元,其中80%將使
用在先進製程,包括3奈米、5奈米及7奈米技術等;台積電預估2020~2025年以美元計價營
收年複合成長率達10~15%。
法人表示,根據台積電預估,今年第1季表現將淡季不淡,美元計價營收略高於去年第4季
126.8億美元,季增0.15~2.5%可望再創新高,若以新台幣27.95元兌1美元匯率假設計算,
新台幣營收約3,549.65~3,633.5億元,約季減1.8%至季增0.5%。
法人認為,台積電從2010年起,年營收連續11年創新高,今年可望連續第12年創高;若從
台積電2020~2025年美元計價營收上揚趨勢來看,營收創高可望達16年以上。
台積電法說會報喜,推升股價再往上創新天價,寫下盤中625元的新紀錄,台積電往上衝
高,去年從300元起就有人在買或不買間猶豫,雖然中間在400~500元有較長的整理,但仍
是一路上漲不回頭,現在到了600元的天價區,買不買仍是引來熱議。
法人認為,可以從股價、本益比、基本 面及技術面等四大面向來評估,目前似乎不是好
的買點,不過,台積電長線絕對還有高點,就看投資人要如何找到好的買點進場布局。
日盛投顧總經理鍾國忠表示,台積電長線還有更高價,但短線KD向下交叉,且在上周五
601~625元間成交9.17萬餘張,換算約套牢550億元,接下來就要看是不是有另一批人願意
花錢來消化這批套牢的賣壓;不過,以台積電今年資本支出拉高至250~280億美元來看,
代表未來成長性很高,因此,即使股價修正,幅度也不會大。
鍾國忠認為,台積電從去年12月23日以來,只有一個交易日下跌(截至1月15日),幾乎
可以說是「不知道什麼叫做跌」 ;從去年封關的530元到今年開紅盤以來的最高價625元
,半個月時間漲了17%,有獲利自然會先跑,不過在看好長線仍有高價可期下,建議較好
的買點應是落在農曆年前。
證券分析師張陳浩表示,台積電預估5年營收複合成長率達10%以上,外資喊到800元,從
法人願意給的本益比來看,30倍、股價600元算是合理,但如果法人基於未來營運成長考
量,願意給40倍本益比,那麼800元的股價也不是不可能,不過,未來在600~800元這一段
,若要成真,就要靠基本面來推動。
因此,他認為,未來法人將會不斷確認台積電的基本面表現,有沒有符合預測,尤其是3
奈米製程出來後,量是否會如期放大;張陳浩指出,台積電若有拉回至5日線或是前一次
的跳空缺口,就是買點。
證券分析師黃漢成則是提醒,手上有台積電可以續抱,但是不要追高,要有風險意識,目
前KD及RSI已偏高,建議在股價修正過後,技術指標KD、RSI回到低檔開始翻揚上來時再買
,他強調,從台積電未來3年成長性來看,是好股票,但要等壓回再買。
3.心得/評論:說的對,台積電確實比較建議回檔再買,問題是,最近根本也沒幾次回檔的機
會能讓你買,然後今天不買想等回檔,怕的是越飆越高不回頭,如果一直沒拉回5日線或是
前一次的跳空缺口,那不就只能乾瞪眼看台積電飆上去,早日進場可能才是比較建議的做
法吧。
--
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