新台幣外強中乾? - 美元

By Eden
at 2015-03-08T23:54
at 2015-03-08T23:54
Table of Contents
鍾國元
近期,由於國際金融市場關注美國是否會在今年中採取升息政策,讓國際美元走強,各國
貨幣兌美元則相對貶值,新台幣卻能獨強,簡直不可思議!
貨幣通常反應出該經濟體的強弱,經濟復甦動能強的美國,大幅升值有其道理,日本、歐
元區等地因經濟復甦仍有疑慮,日幣、歐元表現就很弱勢,日幣跌至一二○日圓/美元,
歐元則是跌到一.一歐元/美元,新台幣則是在卅一.四新台幣/美元,這顯示出,台灣
經濟復甦腳步跟上美國,但真的是這樣嗎?
以中國為例,中國的經濟成長率歷來都有七%以上水準,即便金融海嘯中亞洲各國受重傷
,中國的表現還是很亮眼,最近人民幣卻是持續貶值,原因出在匯率被中國人民銀行干預
了,透過降息等政策手段,壓住了人民幣匯率,連帶新台幣兌人民幣都走強,從五.一二
新台幣/人民幣一路升值到四.九八新台幣/人民幣,台灣的經濟比中國好嗎?從經濟成
長率、經濟體規模來看顯然是沒有,但新台幣卻這麼強,關鍵就是中央銀行!
如果一國的經濟沒有比全世界好,但它的貨幣表現卻是全球頂尖,這是不正常的,央行總
裁的「柳樹理論」及「保持新台幣匯率穩定」的理念眾所周知,於是世界上的熱錢,只好
往「比較不會貶值」的地方跑,就是台灣!資金氾濫的情況下,股市頻創新高,但絕大部
分都是外資在賺,散戶可能連湯都沒有;資金進入房市,空屋率、房價所得比高得誇張的
台灣房地產市場,房價說不跌就不跌,浮濫資金進駐到中南部、東部地區,造成鄉鎮房價
都在漲!
如果,台灣真的對國際資金有吸引力,請中央銀行、金管會引導至具生產力的產業環境,
而非放任炒房蔓延,剝奪廣大台灣民眾居住權!
(作者為金融機構研究員)
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