挺華為能撐多久?驚爆台積電3大危險 - 股票

By Ula
at 2019-05-26T15:23
at 2019-05-26T15:23
Table of Contents
※ 引述《nckuist (allen)》之銘言:
: 看完這則新聞,寫一下近期觀察產業發展的心得。
: Summary:華為去年以來的拉貨潮恐怕影響供應鏈對於今年景氣的評估失準,下半年半導
: 體產業的財測恐怕會有修正,不管對華為的禁令是否解除。台積電的先進製程在六奈米的
: 攪局下,轉進五奈米製程的客戶恐怕會少之又少,倘若在少了華為,台積電的先進製程反
: 而可能成為最大的風險所在。總體來看,今年半導體市場目前沒有看到什麼樂觀的理由。
: 倘若華為真的從去年底孟晚舟被抓之後就開始拉貨,一直拉到五月被美國禁運,大概有兩
: 季的時間,而這兩季恰巧是半導體市場走弱的兩季,因此對於大部分廠商來說華為的急單
: 如即時雨減緩衰退幅度,尤其眾家大廠第一季的業績都有止穩的趨勢,這可能是市場普遍
: 認為第一季會是今年的谷底的原因。
部分文章恕刪,我以為股版算是對產業比較有研究的地方.不過似乎和我想得不太一樣.
很多人認為台GG 少了華為相關的訂單,可以很快補回來? 為啥會有這種認知?
今天 GG 可能失去華為相關訂單的部分,是最難補的"先進製程".
很多人認為晶片都是往越小越好,要一直永無止境微縮下去,這其實不正確. 都忘記"成本"
考量,以及實際需求. 處理器相關,沒錯,的確越小越好.但如果是 LDDI/車用/MCU
之類,幹嘛要用到那麼先進的製程?電視/汽車空間那麼大,這類晶片又不需要複雜處理運算
為了得到 die gain, 卻花上數倍甚至數十倍的錢. 應該沒 Design house 會這樣幹.
先進製程很貴,我拿個 28nm 的例子來講, 光一層"poly"光罩,就是新台幣七位數.現在
能玩得起 7nm 的公司超級少. 大家都偏保守,畢竟成本太高,你花大錢 Tape out,市場不
買單,就是鉅額虧損.連一代拳王 MTK 的腳步都有些放慢.
說個八卦, GG 今年分紅和去年相比會打折. 內部應該有嗅到風向.
--
: 看完這則新聞,寫一下近期觀察產業發展的心得。
: Summary:華為去年以來的拉貨潮恐怕影響供應鏈對於今年景氣的評估失準,下半年半導
: 體產業的財測恐怕會有修正,不管對華為的禁令是否解除。台積電的先進製程在六奈米的
: 攪局下,轉進五奈米製程的客戶恐怕會少之又少,倘若在少了華為,台積電的先進製程反
: 而可能成為最大的風險所在。總體來看,今年半導體市場目前沒有看到什麼樂觀的理由。
: 倘若華為真的從去年底孟晚舟被抓之後就開始拉貨,一直拉到五月被美國禁運,大概有兩
: 季的時間,而這兩季恰巧是半導體市場走弱的兩季,因此對於大部分廠商來說華為的急單
: 如即時雨減緩衰退幅度,尤其眾家大廠第一季的業績都有止穩的趨勢,這可能是市場普遍
: 認為第一季會是今年的谷底的原因。
部分文章恕刪,我以為股版算是對產業比較有研究的地方.不過似乎和我想得不太一樣.
很多人認為台GG 少了華為相關的訂單,可以很快補回來? 為啥會有這種認知?
今天 GG 可能失去華為相關訂單的部分,是最難補的"先進製程".
很多人認為晶片都是往越小越好,要一直永無止境微縮下去,這其實不正確. 都忘記"成本"
考量,以及實際需求. 處理器相關,沒錯,的確越小越好.但如果是 LDDI/車用/MCU
之類,幹嘛要用到那麼先進的製程?電視/汽車空間那麼大,這類晶片又不需要複雜處理運算
為了得到 die gain, 卻花上數倍甚至數十倍的錢. 應該沒 Design house 會這樣幹.
先進製程很貴,我拿個 28nm 的例子來講, 光一層"poly"光罩,就是新台幣七位數.現在
能玩得起 7nm 的公司超級少. 大家都偏保守,畢竟成本太高,你花大錢 Tape out,市場不
買單,就是鉅額虧損.連一代拳王 MTK 的腳步都有些放慢.
說個八卦, GG 今年分紅和去年相比會打折. 內部應該有嗅到風向.
--
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