所以,貿易戰,美國真的想達成協議嗎? - 股票
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By Skylar Davis
at 2019-05-24T23:53
at 2019-05-24T23:53
Table of Contents
※ 引述《Hachiko (櫻桃小口帶把刀)》之銘言:
: 一個國家經濟要高度發展的兩個要件就是
: 1. 政治穩定 這代表政治力必須高度集中
: 2. 政治力集中於菁英 這必須仰賴高度問責制度
: 1跟2是非常難以同時並存的
: 擁有問責制度的國家例如民主國家
: 通常政治力無法高度集中
: 而政治力高度集中的例如專制國家
: 通常缺乏問責制度
: 川普今天的做法是跟中國目前中國制度非常像
: 只在預先設定的立場上談判
: 當談判破局就是舉國具有高度一致性的政策對外
: 現階段對於川普的挑戰在於華爾街
: 若是貿易戰造成既得利益者大量流失資產
: 掀起的反彈必然會讓美國政治力分散
: 當政治力分散一致性對外的政策就會有動搖
: 現在兩方都在押大注賭一局大贏
: 最高執政當局都了解到要是在談判中沒有取得重大勝利
: 必然會進入到政治力受到挑戰的惡性循環
: 這是兩方都輸不起的局面
: 也是雙方都必須豪賭一把的局面
我其實很擔心中美貿易戰一但失控
中國會認真考慮攻打台灣
1. 如果經濟真的崩盤 為了轉移國內壓力 這是共產黨不得考慮走的一步
2. 本來中國就有武力拿下台灣的企圖 但看在快超越美國的願景下
以及未來可能領導世界的形象不能搞得太差
才沒有用武力快速拿下台灣的動作(一方面也是顧慮美國會介入)
3. 如果台海開戰 中國經濟會倒退20年
但如果被美國經濟制裁弄到沒開戰就倒退10-20年 那還有什麼理由不打台灣?
4. 假設拿下台灣 迫於台灣海峽的重要性
日本韓國非常有可能會倒戈變成中國的小弟
至於美國 我覺得他們對於台灣變成交戰區 可能也無所謂
東亞變成像中東那樣亂個幾十年對他們是最好的狀況
我是很認真嚴肅地再談這個問題
特別是川普這個人 我覺得任何籌碼都是可以被他犧牲和交換的
--
: 一個國家經濟要高度發展的兩個要件就是
: 1. 政治穩定 這代表政治力必須高度集中
: 2. 政治力集中於菁英 這必須仰賴高度問責制度
: 1跟2是非常難以同時並存的
: 擁有問責制度的國家例如民主國家
: 通常政治力無法高度集中
: 而政治力高度集中的例如專制國家
: 通常缺乏問責制度
: 川普今天的做法是跟中國目前中國制度非常像
: 只在預先設定的立場上談判
: 當談判破局就是舉國具有高度一致性的政策對外
: 現階段對於川普的挑戰在於華爾街
: 若是貿易戰造成既得利益者大量流失資產
: 掀起的反彈必然會讓美國政治力分散
: 當政治力分散一致性對外的政策就會有動搖
: 現在兩方都在押大注賭一局大贏
: 最高執政當局都了解到要是在談判中沒有取得重大勝利
: 必然會進入到政治力受到挑戰的惡性循環
: 這是兩方都輸不起的局面
: 也是雙方都必須豪賭一把的局面
我其實很擔心中美貿易戰一但失控
中國會認真考慮攻打台灣
1. 如果經濟真的崩盤 為了轉移國內壓力 這是共產黨不得考慮走的一步
2. 本來中國就有武力拿下台灣的企圖 但看在快超越美國的願景下
以及未來可能領導世界的形象不能搞得太差
才沒有用武力快速拿下台灣的動作(一方面也是顧慮美國會介入)
3. 如果台海開戰 中國經濟會倒退20年
但如果被美國經濟制裁弄到沒開戰就倒退10-20年 那還有什麼理由不打台灣?
4. 假設拿下台灣 迫於台灣海峽的重要性
日本韓國非常有可能會倒戈變成中國的小弟
至於美國 我覺得他們對於台灣變成交戰區 可能也無所謂
東亞變成像中東那樣亂個幾十年對他們是最好的狀況
我是很認真嚴肅地再談這個問題
特別是川普這個人 我覺得任何籌碼都是可以被他犧牲和交換的
--
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股票
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at 2019-11-03T05:55
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
By Mary
at 2019-11-05T00:44
at 2019-11-05T00:44

By Cara
at 2019-11-07T08:40
at 2019-11-07T08:40

By Daniel
at 2019-11-07T10:19
at 2019-11-07T10:19

By Genevieve
at 2019-11-08T00:09
at 2019-11-08T00:09

By Belly
at 2019-11-10T13:13
at 2019-11-10T13:13

By Dorothy
at 2019-11-11T10:13
at 2019-11-11T10:13

By Regina
at 2019-11-13T18:51
at 2019-11-13T18:51

By Emma
at 2019-11-16T19:18
at 2019-11-16T19:18

By Annie
at 2019-11-17T04:44
at 2019-11-17T04:44

By Steve
at 2019-11-20T09:20
at 2019-11-20T09:20

By Mia
at 2019-11-25T00:39
at 2019-11-25T00:39

By Adele
at 2019-11-26T10:02
at 2019-11-26T10:02

By Barb Cronin
at 2019-11-28T03:00
at 2019-11-28T03:00

By Lauren
at 2019-11-28T18:06
at 2019-11-28T18:06

By Gilbert
at 2019-12-01T03:56
at 2019-12-01T03:56

By Regina
at 2019-12-02T00:14
at 2019-12-02T00:14

By Anthony
at 2019-12-04T11:14
at 2019-12-04T11:14

By Frederica
at 2019-12-09T04:13
at 2019-12-09T04:13

By Elizabeth
at 2019-12-10T09:07
at 2019-12-10T09:07

By Agnes
at 2019-12-12T08:44
at 2019-12-12T08:44

By Puput
at 2019-12-13T01:52
at 2019-12-13T01:52

By Quanna
at 2019-12-13T19:15
at 2019-12-13T19:15

By Tracy
at 2019-12-17T00:58
at 2019-12-17T00:58

By Iris
at 2019-12-20T03:43
at 2019-12-20T03:43

By Erin
at 2019-12-21T07:38
at 2019-12-21T07:38

By Hardy
at 2019-12-22T02:34
at 2019-12-22T02:34

By Heather
at 2019-12-26T17:57
at 2019-12-26T17:57

By Agatha
at 2019-12-26T23:39
at 2019-12-26T23:39

By Skylar Davis
at 2019-12-31T19:27
at 2019-12-31T19:27

By Agatha
at 2020-01-01T06:58
at 2020-01-01T06:58

By Sarah
at 2020-01-04T13:30
at 2020-01-04T13:30

By Zora
at 2020-01-09T09:58
at 2020-01-09T09:58

By Zora
at 2020-01-09T12:33
at 2020-01-09T12:33

By Elizabeth
at 2020-01-09T19:08
at 2020-01-09T19:08

By Connor
at 2020-01-11T02:28
at 2020-01-11T02:28

By Isla
at 2020-01-16T00:54
at 2020-01-16T00:54

By Kelly
at 2020-01-20T23:29
at 2020-01-20T23:29

By Kelly
at 2020-01-24T18:27
at 2020-01-24T18:27

By Carol
at 2020-01-25T04:37
at 2020-01-25T04:37

By Selena
at 2020-01-30T03:34
at 2020-01-30T03:34

By Oscar
at 2020-02-01T01:24
at 2020-02-01T01:24

By Wallis
at 2020-02-01T09:47
at 2020-02-01T09:47

By Zora
at 2020-02-03T19:16
at 2020-02-03T19:16

By Edward Lewis
at 2020-02-06T02:35
at 2020-02-06T02:35

By Damian
at 2020-02-09T05:59
at 2020-02-09T05:59

By Mia
at 2020-02-09T12:30
at 2020-02-09T12:30

By Anthony
at 2020-02-12T06:35
at 2020-02-12T06:35

By Selena
at 2020-02-12T20:54
at 2020-02-12T20:54

By Oliver
at 2020-02-16T13:39
at 2020-02-16T13:39

By Frederica
at 2020-02-20T00:35
at 2020-02-20T00:35

By Edith
at 2020-02-22T21:28
at 2020-02-22T21:28

By John
at 2020-02-24T13:55
at 2020-02-24T13:55

By Faithe
at 2020-02-26T07:09
at 2020-02-26T07:09

By Cara
at 2020-02-29T00:28
at 2020-02-29T00:28

By Lily
at 2020-03-03T04:34
at 2020-03-03T04:34

By Damian
at 2020-03-04T02:28
at 2020-03-04T02:28

By Lucy
at 2020-03-07T10:11
at 2020-03-07T10:11

By Susan
at 2020-03-11T02:07
at 2020-03-11T02:07

By Robert
at 2020-03-16T00:41
at 2020-03-16T00:41

By Doris
at 2020-03-20T02:48
at 2020-03-20T02:48

By Freda
at 2020-03-22T02:01
at 2020-03-22T02:01

By Jake
at 2020-03-24T23:42
at 2020-03-24T23:42

By Zora
at 2020-03-29T05:16
at 2020-03-29T05:16

By Olive
at 2020-03-30T08:15
at 2020-03-30T08:15

By Poppy
at 2020-04-03T15:14
at 2020-04-03T15:14

By Cara
at 2020-04-08T10:01
at 2020-04-08T10:01

By Sierra Rose
at 2020-04-08T14:04
at 2020-04-08T14:04

By Sierra Rose
at 2020-04-12T05:55
at 2020-04-12T05:55

By Kama
at 2020-04-13T10:06
at 2020-04-13T10:06

By Kumar
at 2020-04-14T00:03
at 2020-04-14T00:03

By Blanche
at 2020-04-15T10:38
at 2020-04-15T10:38

By Regina
at 2020-04-20T10:18
at 2020-04-20T10:18

By Annie
at 2020-04-22T05:16
at 2020-04-22T05:16

By Blanche
at 2020-04-25T06:03
at 2020-04-25T06:03

By Olga
at 2020-04-30T03:19
at 2020-04-30T03:19

By Jack
at 2020-05-02T03:24
at 2020-05-02T03:24

By John
at 2020-05-04T10:05
at 2020-05-04T10:05

By Regina
at 2020-05-07T06:07
at 2020-05-07T06:07

By Aaliyah
at 2020-05-09T06:13
at 2020-05-09T06:13

By Yuri
at 2020-05-13T13:16
at 2020-05-13T13:16

By Freda
at 2020-05-16T05:04
at 2020-05-16T05:04

By Kyle
at 2020-05-18T11:49
at 2020-05-18T11:49

By Necoo
at 2020-05-20T11:09
at 2020-05-20T11:09

By Adele
at 2020-05-20T19:08
at 2020-05-20T19:08

By Joe
at 2020-05-24T14:10
at 2020-05-24T14:10

By George
at 2020-05-28T01:11
at 2020-05-28T01:11

By Edward Lewis
at 2020-05-31T09:00
at 2020-05-31T09:00

By Agatha
at 2020-06-02T19:13
at 2020-06-02T19:13
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By Todd Johnson
at 2020-06-07T03:43
at 2020-06-07T03:43
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By Xanthe
at 2020-06-07T20:01
at 2020-06-07T20:01
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By Lauren
at 2020-06-11T13:49
at 2020-06-11T13:49
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By John
at 2020-06-16T03:38
at 2020-06-16T03:38
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By Andrew
at 2020-06-19T08:25
at 2020-06-19T08:25
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By Edith
at 2020-06-21T13:07
at 2020-06-21T13:07
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By Kyle
at 2020-06-23T05:42
at 2020-06-23T05:42
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By Regina
at 2020-06-26T15:57
at 2020-06-26T15:57
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By Carol
at 2020-07-01T08:23
at 2020-07-01T08:23
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By Carolina Franco
at 2020-07-05T08:42
at 2020-07-05T08:42
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By Jack
at 2020-07-07T19:29
at 2020-07-07T19:29
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By Sarah
at 2020-07-12T10:27
at 2020-07-12T10:27
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By Quanna
at 2020-07-16T07:12
at 2020-07-16T07:12
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By Frederica
at 2020-07-17T13:41
at 2020-07-17T13:41
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By Edwina
at 2020-07-20T15:10
at 2020-07-20T15:10
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By Ula
at 2020-07-21T08:41
at 2020-07-21T08:41
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By Liam
at 2020-07-24T16:44
at 2020-07-24T16:44
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By Harry
at 2020-07-28T10:54
at 2020-07-28T10:54
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By Anthony
at 2020-07-30T09:40
at 2020-07-30T09:40
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By Barb Cronin
at 2020-07-30T20:26
at 2020-07-30T20:26
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By Vanessa
at 2020-08-04T09:21
at 2020-08-04T09:21
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By Dinah
at 2020-08-06T19:10
at 2020-08-06T19:10
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By Jessica
at 2020-08-09T16:36
at 2020-08-09T16:36
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By Regina
at 2020-08-14T01:20
at 2020-08-14T01:20
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By Audriana
at 2020-08-17T19:56
at 2020-08-17T19:56
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By Damian
at 2020-08-21T17:16
at 2020-08-21T17:16
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By Margaret
at 2020-08-22T05:09
at 2020-08-22T05:09
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By Caitlin
at 2020-08-26T13:33
at 2020-08-26T13:33
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By Hardy
at 2020-08-28T17:42
at 2020-08-28T17:42
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By Brianna
at 2020-08-28T18:48
at 2020-08-28T18:48
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By Sarah
at 2020-08-30T04:04
at 2020-08-30T04:04
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By Damian
at 2020-09-01T07:33
at 2020-09-01T07:33
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By Candice
at 2020-09-05T05:31
at 2020-09-05T05:31
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By Franklin
at 2020-09-09T17:00
at 2020-09-09T17:00
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By Rosalind
at 2020-09-14T16:58
at 2020-09-14T16:58
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By Dora
at 2020-09-18T21:57
at 2020-09-18T21:57
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By Doris
at 2020-09-23T16:29
at 2020-09-23T16:29
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By Victoria
at 2020-09-27T19:18
at 2020-09-27T19:18
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By Linda
at 2020-09-29T04:16
at 2020-09-29T04:16
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By Bennie
at 2020-09-29T09:45
at 2020-09-29T09:45
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By Suhail Hany
at 2020-10-03T03:56
at 2020-10-03T03:56
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By Puput
at 2020-10-06T08:48
at 2020-10-06T08:48
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By Madame
at 2020-10-08T13:38
at 2020-10-08T13:38
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By Annie
at 2020-10-09T07:46
at 2020-10-09T07:46
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By Tom
at 2020-10-13T21:50
at 2020-10-13T21:50
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By Skylar Davis
at 2020-10-17T22:44
at 2020-10-17T22:44
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By John
at 2020-10-20T05:10
at 2020-10-20T05:10
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By Regina
at 2020-10-22T13:51
at 2020-10-22T13:51
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By Necoo
at 2020-10-26T17:53
at 2020-10-26T17:53
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By Dorothy
at 2020-10-28T18:31
at 2020-10-28T18:31
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By Tom
at 2020-10-29T08:32
at 2020-10-29T08:32
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By Catherine
at 2020-10-31T23:45
at 2020-10-31T23:45
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By Ina
at 2020-11-04T07:22
at 2020-11-04T07:22
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By Noah
at 2020-11-09T05:21
at 2020-11-09T05:21
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By Frederic
at 2020-11-11T00:33
at 2020-11-11T00:33
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By Elma
at 2020-11-15T11:07
at 2020-11-15T11:07
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By Jacky
at 2020-11-19T06:32
at 2020-11-19T06:32
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By Odelette
at 2020-11-22T06:40
at 2020-11-22T06:40
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By Agnes
at 2020-11-23T05:15
at 2020-11-23T05:15
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By Anthony
at 2020-11-24T04:13
at 2020-11-24T04:13
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By Yuri
at 2020-11-26T16:08
at 2020-11-26T16:08
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By Tristan Cohan
at 2020-11-27T14:36
at 2020-11-27T14:36
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By Iris
at 2020-11-29T13:09
at 2020-11-29T13:09
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By Ida
at 2020-12-03T12:49
at 2020-12-03T12:49
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By Tracy
at 2020-12-04T00:25
at 2020-12-04T00:25
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