所以,貿易戰,美國真的想達成協議嗎? - 股票

By Elvira
at 2019-05-24T02:33
at 2019-05-24T02:33
Table of Contents
覺得原本是有機會達成協議,但現在難度又增加了
以前有一句話說,美國人跟你講理時你最好跟他講理,等到他不跟你講理時你會懷念講理的時候
當初川普在當選之後念茲在茲的就是縮小美國的逆差,原本他也不單純針對中國,各國都要課關稅,然後也是一國或幾個國家來進行雙邊談判
當然中國也不例外
而且中國相較其他歐洲、日本以及其他開發國家的差異就是
1.市場未完全開放
2.技術抄襲以及智財保障的問題
3.國家補貼破壞市場機制
這在美國建立起的全球貿易制度是有傷害的
因此要維持制度,勢必得修正這個情況
不然中國都這樣玩,其他國家都一直被侵害利益,遲早這個貿易體系會跨掉或萎縮,如果這樣,也同步降低美國的影響力以及美國的信用
而在前面美國也不是如預期一開始就課關稅,也是延了又延
而且都有中興以及晉華的例子在前
結果中國後來還是翻盤了
可是這樣就變成在挑戰美國的權威,如果美國這時還只是摸摸頭,為了賺錢就算了,以後誰買你單。這就有點像日本偷襲珍珠港一樣,美國如果不動員就無法表明他的立場
因此對於一個不守信用的國家要如何進行
1.關稅到25%
2.龍頭企業即日起進行開始封鎖
https://tinyurl.com/yxqxsvpr
-----
美國商務部長羅斯(WilburRoss)今天受訪表示,中國華為技術有限公司和70家附屬事業列入美國貿易黑名單,出口管制將於17日生效
禁止華為在未經政府許可下,向美國企業採購零組件和技術
-----
看看這些供應商有多少間立刻開始執行美國政府的規範
https://kknews.cc/tech/mox3l3g.html
https://imgur.com/fdH1w2j.jpg
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-48337099
沒ARM、Goodle、Intel、Qualcomm、Xilinx、Broadcom這些供應商的產品,要怎做出手機
華為四成以上營收是手機,裡面又有一半的出貨量來自海外市場
如此封鎖可能會讓華為一次少掉約20%的出貨
開始在國際技術組織進行封鎖
a.JEDEC 遵從美國商務部法令,告知 1.華為 2.其子公司海思半導體 (Hisilicon) 將暫停他們停止參與 JEDEC 的所有活動
https://technews.tw/2019/05/22/jedec/
b.PCI-SIG協會也跟進禁止華爲會員資格,除了無法協同開發制定,以及取消下載相關文件相關權限
https://i.imgur.com/lybrENX.jpg
c.SD記憶卡協會,將華為公司從合作名單中剔除
https://tinyurl.com/y5av2tcg
如此建立一個範例,如果想要在這個體系下賺錢,國家就要遵守規則
美國是可以談的
但如果不守信用,即使華為也可能變這樣
或許中國想說川普在意美股的指數,如果跌個幾%或者更多,美國就會收手
但美國先禮後兵
等到他被逼要用兵的策略時,或許就是他不計代價要贏了
川普真的一定要選連任嗎
還是在任內可以課中國一筆關稅以及封殺華為比較有產出呢
這個不同人解讀就不同了
不知大家覺得呢
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Sony G8142.
--
以前有一句話說,美國人跟你講理時你最好跟他講理,等到他不跟你講理時你會懷念講理的時候
當初川普在當選之後念茲在茲的就是縮小美國的逆差,原本他也不單純針對中國,各國都要課關稅,然後也是一國或幾個國家來進行雙邊談判
當然中國也不例外
而且中國相較其他歐洲、日本以及其他開發國家的差異就是
1.市場未完全開放
2.技術抄襲以及智財保障的問題
3.國家補貼破壞市場機制
這在美國建立起的全球貿易制度是有傷害的
因此要維持制度,勢必得修正這個情況
不然中國都這樣玩,其他國家都一直被侵害利益,遲早這個貿易體系會跨掉或萎縮,如果這樣,也同步降低美國的影響力以及美國的信用
而在前面美國也不是如預期一開始就課關稅,也是延了又延
而且都有中興以及晉華的例子在前
結果中國後來還是翻盤了
可是這樣就變成在挑戰美國的權威,如果美國這時還只是摸摸頭,為了賺錢就算了,以後誰買你單。這就有點像日本偷襲珍珠港一樣,美國如果不動員就無法表明他的立場
因此對於一個不守信用的國家要如何進行
1.關稅到25%
2.龍頭企業即日起進行開始封鎖
https://tinyurl.com/yxqxsvpr
-----
美國商務部長羅斯(WilburRoss)今天受訪表示,中國華為技術有限公司和70家附屬事業列入美國貿易黑名單,出口管制將於17日生效
禁止華為在未經政府許可下,向美國企業採購零組件和技術
-----
看看這些供應商有多少間立刻開始執行美國政府的規範
https://kknews.cc/tech/mox3l3g.html
https://imgur.com/fdH1w2j.jpg
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-48337099
沒ARM、Goodle、Intel、Qualcomm、Xilinx、Broadcom這些供應商的產品,要怎做出手機
華為四成以上營收是手機,裡面又有一半的出貨量來自海外市場
如此封鎖可能會讓華為一次少掉約20%的出貨
開始在國際技術組織進行封鎖
a.JEDEC 遵從美國商務部法令,告知 1.華為 2.其子公司海思半導體 (Hisilicon) 將暫停他們停止參與 JEDEC 的所有活動
https://technews.tw/2019/05/22/jedec/
b.PCI-SIG協會也跟進禁止華爲會員資格,除了無法協同開發制定,以及取消下載相關文件相關權限
https://i.imgur.com/lybrENX.jpg
c.SD記憶卡協會,將華為公司從合作名單中剔除
https://tinyurl.com/y5av2tcg
如此建立一個範例,如果想要在這個體系下賺錢,國家就要遵守規則
美國是可以談的
但如果不守信用,即使華為也可能變這樣
或許中國想說川普在意美股的指數,如果跌個幾%或者更多,美國就會收手
但美國先禮後兵
等到他被逼要用兵的策略時,或許就是他不計代價要贏了
川普真的一定要選連任嗎
還是在任內可以課中國一筆關稅以及封殺華為比較有產出呢
這個不同人解讀就不同了
不知大家覺得呢
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Sony G8142.
--
Tags:
股票
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