彭把央行變金庫 14年貢獻國庫2.67兆 - 股票
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2012-08-22T10:02
at 2012-08-22T10:02
Table of Contents
前幾天才在八卦板戰過這件事
出口賺到的錢 換成台幣後 你那些賺來的美金變成外匯存底
但那些外匯存底大部分是美債跟美金
換言之 你爆肝血汗換到的是一個任人宰割的資產 (美國的某次QE就是在狂印鈔票)
我們以前的思維是 台幣升值 那出口就下滑了 那外匯存底就不會增加
盲點就在這邊! 台幣升值是可以讓手上的新台幣增加(對國外商品的)購買力
內需並不是左手換右手的遊戲 因為手上的新台幣變大了
對大家最好的方式是維持適當的出口 讓出口略高於進口(current A/C為正)
同時國民可以享有足夠的購買力
我們為了維持出口競爭力 要嘛1.廠商要爭氣 2.弱勢貨幣
現在我們都想依賴後者 結果除了幫出口商買單之外又換到甚麼
正常的做法應該是貨幣有足夠購買力 競爭力不夠的出口廠商倒閉 汰弱留強
另外 台灣內需並不是不夠 看看那些超商 餐飲都賺的還開心可以印證
重點是我們的可支配所得在這10幾年來被房貸吃光 隨便放一點出來內需都會大爆發
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/joejoejoe/16338251
joe大的部落格有張圖說明這幾年房貸吃掉所得的比例大幅攀升
我覺得打房應該靠稅來解決 不太關央行的事
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另外 基本上台灣這幾年的FDI都很慘 外國人投資不是只看到新台幣夠弱就會進來了
為了不讓毛三到四被淘汰 就維持弱勢台幣 這個作法只會讓台灣產業溫水煮青蛙
可以看一下台積電 宏達電 聯發科 他們的走強走弱是因為台幣嗎 不是
去年台幣高漲時 宏達電仍然可以貢獻大幅順差 這很明顯地告訴我們 競爭力才是一切
(一個宏達電就可以佔台灣出口5% 台灣要的是這種強勢企業)
我方固然因為國際地位的關係 要有高於正常的外匯儲備 但我們完全是超額
實際上台灣的貨幣管制嚴格的要命(台幣並非自由貨幣)
我也不太相信有足夠的熱錢玩得過彭總
過度的保險就好像你年薪50萬去保了5000萬的壽險意外險
之前有人說 要是我們不持美元資產 美國倒了受害也是我們自己
而目前外匯存底排名: 中國3.3兆 日本1.2兆 俄羅斯 4631億 台灣3892億
從數字看來 台幣已經無所謂舉足輕重
再來 台灣大部分的出口實際上是進口轉出口 原物料成本也會因為升值受惠
並非升值就是完全對出口不利
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