底部訊號到底是麼 - 股票
By Hedda
at 2020-03-18T18:53
at 2020-03-18T18:53
Table of Contents
最近波動很大就跟大家講講所謂的底部訊號
個人經驗有兩個,一個客觀一個主觀
客觀的就是波動率,波動率套個大家簡單的知道方式就是
K棒的長度,你可以用每天最高點減掉最低點來算
台股、美股、黃金、個股、比特幣這所有商品都通用
主觀的就是利空不跌
底部的時候波動率會下降
因為那時候買賣清淡,這件事情在熊市底部幾乎是必然會發生的
崩跌的時候波動率遽增其實很淺顯易懂
一開始正常市場的時候,有很多market maker靠造市賺價差
當市場開始劇烈活動以後,MM因為風險考量會把對價拉大
對價拉大以後,漲跌幅也會加大,這時候如果市場往一邊跑
下跌的價格會驅使更多賣盤,因此會形成雪球效應。
波動率下降的時候你不一定會買到價格最低點,但是你會買在市場穩定的時候
以台股來講,長期熊市低點都是500億甚至更少的窒息量,然後開始慢慢漲
第二個我覺得金融海嘯的時候最明顯的就是
利空滿天飛,股票開始慢慢漲。
明明很恐怖的事件一直出來,明明很誇張的新聞一直報
但是股價不會跌,其實原因很簡單,這時候股票已經被賣到只剩不想賣的人有股票了
美股跟台股目前都大概只跌一個月
如果你覺得這次只是多頭回檔,那這陣子趕快進,因為這種V轉都是半年一年就過高了
如果你覺得這次可能是空頭,那要長期投資就等波動率下降跟利空不跌,
那時候再買會比較安全
--
個人經驗有兩個,一個客觀一個主觀
客觀的就是波動率,波動率套個大家簡單的知道方式就是
K棒的長度,你可以用每天最高點減掉最低點來算
台股、美股、黃金、個股、比特幣這所有商品都通用
主觀的就是利空不跌
底部的時候波動率會下降
因為那時候買賣清淡,這件事情在熊市底部幾乎是必然會發生的
崩跌的時候波動率遽增其實很淺顯易懂
一開始正常市場的時候,有很多market maker靠造市賺價差
當市場開始劇烈活動以後,MM因為風險考量會把對價拉大
對價拉大以後,漲跌幅也會加大,這時候如果市場往一邊跑
下跌的價格會驅使更多賣盤,因此會形成雪球效應。
波動率下降的時候你不一定會買到價格最低點,但是你會買在市場穩定的時候
以台股來講,長期熊市低點都是500億甚至更少的窒息量,然後開始慢慢漲
第二個我覺得金融海嘯的時候最明顯的就是
利空滿天飛,股票開始慢慢漲。
明明很恐怖的事件一直出來,明明很誇張的新聞一直報
但是股價不會跌,其實原因很簡單,這時候股票已經被賣到只剩不想賣的人有股票了
美股跟台股目前都大概只跌一個月
如果你覺得這次只是多頭回檔,那這陣子趕快進,因為這種V轉都是半年一年就過高了
如果你覺得這次可能是空頭,那要長期投資就等波動率下降跟利空不跌,
那時候再買會比較安全
--
Tags:
股票
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