已出場操作 邏輯分享 神盾隔日沖 - 股票

By Valerie
at 2017-04-28T16:51
at 2017-04-28T16:51
Table of Contents
※ 引述《chengwaye (勝率0%的傳奇男子)》之銘言:
: 1. 標的:6462 神盾
: 2. 分類:短線單 (已出場)
: 3. 分析/正文:
: http://i.imgur.com/W5UtGsT.jpg
: 觀察:昨日盤中在170以上時,都是沒量的宇宙隨機漫步
: 一殺破170開始出量,同時一堆往下不計價的單往下殺
: 但股價到166時開始不動,所以進場。
: 進場後,突然得知這檔要取消法說會了,
: 然而後面市場上的買盤從我進場點168一路往上衝到175,
: 覺得這個取消法說會應該也不是什麼大事,
: 不然不會有這些買盤,
: 直接預期今天應該開高走高。
: 接著就是今天了,看起來,開高但沒有走高,而且關鍵價170一直有假單在晃,如下圖。
: http://i.imgur.com/Q1gakU7.jpg
: 這時候的假單小弟個人就覺得很假了,現在有一些市場小主力,已經反過來用大家怕假單
: 這件事,
: 掛出假單反而不會往那個方向走,但今天這個我就覺得是真的假單了xD
: (真真假假真真?)
: 而且法說可能延期這件事
: 後來細看
: 要財務主管列席
: 不賭風險
: 就在看看囉
: 反正市場股票很多
: 4. 進退場機制:
: 已進出完畢
: 純分享
: 進退場邏輯已寫在上方
其實不用分析這麼多
我簡單講就好
拿出江恩矩陣
找到今年2月份高點299當基準點開始跑(約算298)
298-->176 就是2圈滿足點
而你講的價位晃動漫步點166.5(算整數166)
是往下再走3個22.5度
基本上176是大支撐
最遠不能捅超過173(就是最遠多走1個22.5度=角位)
所以你接在166 就要有隨時再被爆砍的打算
更何況今天盤中只回到173.5就沒上去過了
我直接講我的結論...
這就是抄底失敗
因為假如跌破173(支撐的最遠誤差點)是假的
那應該會非常非常快就回到真正的支撐176之上 但事實就是沒有...
只是你跑得還滿快的...
我換另一種跑法 取價位1/10來跑
299約等於29
往下只跑1/4圈 十字位滿足點約是29-->24-->19-->15-->12
你接在166就等於接在19跟15的中間點17的下方
只要價位沒回到至少17之上 就是準備完蛋
所以基本上 今天10點過後
跌破170就是必死無疑 準備往15x去
用第一種方法298繼續推的話 再1圈是127 再半圈是151
好一點151就會停 差一點會打到148或145才停 <---類似這次這樣
再更慘就是去測歷史低點116-127附近~
我個人是看好會再破底
而且應該會稍微捅穿145才開始反彈
不然就下周以後 如果強硬收176之上
大家當我在講幹話 我欣然接受
我算時間循環架構 最少要6天
長一點要10-20天才會見底 <--個人傾向這種機率高
這些都是不用觀察盤中掛單狀況
盤前規劃就可以得到的簡單結論~
--
: 1. 標的:6462 神盾
: 2. 分類:短線單 (已出場)
: 3. 分析/正文:
: http://i.imgur.com/W5UtGsT.jpg
: 觀察:昨日盤中在170以上時,都是沒量的宇宙隨機漫步
: 一殺破170開始出量,同時一堆往下不計價的單往下殺
: 但股價到166時開始不動,所以進場。
: 進場後,突然得知這檔要取消法說會了,
: 然而後面市場上的買盤從我進場點168一路往上衝到175,
: 覺得這個取消法說會應該也不是什麼大事,
: 不然不會有這些買盤,
: 直接預期今天應該開高走高。
: 接著就是今天了,看起來,開高但沒有走高,而且關鍵價170一直有假單在晃,如下圖。
: http://i.imgur.com/Q1gakU7.jpg
: 這時候的假單小弟個人就覺得很假了,現在有一些市場小主力,已經反過來用大家怕假單
: 這件事,
: 掛出假單反而不會往那個方向走,但今天這個我就覺得是真的假單了xD
: (真真假假真真?)
: 而且法說可能延期這件事
: 後來細看
: 要財務主管列席
: 不賭風險
: 就在看看囉
: 反正市場股票很多
: 4. 進退場機制:
: 已進出完畢
: 純分享
: 進退場邏輯已寫在上方
其實不用分析這麼多
我簡單講就好
拿出江恩矩陣
找到今年2月份高點299當基準點開始跑(約算298)
298-->176 就是2圈滿足點
而你講的價位晃動漫步點166.5(算整數166)
是往下再走3個22.5度
基本上176是大支撐
最遠不能捅超過173(就是最遠多走1個22.5度=角位)
所以你接在166 就要有隨時再被爆砍的打算
更何況今天盤中只回到173.5就沒上去過了
我直接講我的結論...
這就是抄底失敗
因為假如跌破173(支撐的最遠誤差點)是假的
那應該會非常非常快就回到真正的支撐176之上 但事實就是沒有...
只是你跑得還滿快的...
我換另一種跑法 取價位1/10來跑
299約等於29
往下只跑1/4圈 十字位滿足點約是29-->24-->19-->15-->12
你接在166就等於接在19跟15的中間點17的下方
只要價位沒回到至少17之上 就是準備完蛋
所以基本上 今天10點過後
跌破170就是必死無疑 準備往15x去
用第一種方法298繼續推的話 再1圈是127 再半圈是151
好一點151就會停 差一點會打到148或145才停 <---類似這次這樣
再更慘就是去測歷史低點116-127附近~
我個人是看好會再破底
而且應該會稍微捅穿145才開始反彈
不然就下周以後 如果強硬收176之上
大家當我在講幹話 我欣然接受
我算時間循環架構 最少要6天
長一點要10-20天才會見底 <--個人傾向這種機率高
這些都是不用觀察盤中掛單狀況
盤前規劃就可以得到的簡單結論~
--
Tags:
股票
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