川普確診 台股真的要變盤啦! - 股票
By Liam
at 2020-10-02T16:37
at 2020-10-02T16:37
Table of Contents
川普確診|台股真的要變盤啦! 股市名師說指數要奔月「就靠這一招」
2小時前
美國總統川普在中秋連假期間確診武漢肺炎,讓道瓊期指一度下殺500點,這使得過去中
秋節變盤之說,再度興起,股市名師萬寶投顧董事長朱成志說:「這下台股真旳要變盤啦
!」朱成志說,台股在節前跌5點,就破底形成M頭,靠的就是半導體當救命仙丹,節後台
股若要期待能吃仙丹奔月,就只能靠一招,就是美國真正開始制裁中芯半導體。
朱成志分析,川普確診對台股而言,還不如對川普自身選情的影響,現在市場普遍認為節
後區間震盪的機率最大,尤其節前差5點就破底,真的讓市場心驚驚,而在收假前,台股
能免於破底,其實靠的就是半導體這顆救命仙丹,朱成志認為,節後若真要變盤向上,只
能靠一招,就是美國發出公文,真正制裁中芯,這將使得高通、博通等大單,不是轉向三
星,就是轉向台灣,接下來半導體可望走漲價行情。
法人分析,目前中芯有4座12吋廠、3座8吋廠,一旦遭到美國正式制裁,對國內半導體而
言,將是一大利多,指數可望像吃仙丹奔月一般,帶動台股再攻一波。
台股今年7月衝破13000點歷史高點,隨後拉回在12000點左右高檔震盪,市場擔心今年恐
怕出現「中秋節變盤」,對此專家認為,台股長多面臨修正,且接近11月份美國總統大選
,變數仍多,但市場資金熱錢仍在,看好台股上有壓下有撐,變數消化之後指數仍有上攻
的機會。
觀察過去15年中秋節前後表現,中秋節前1周指數上漲機率僅47%,平均跌幅約0.5%,然而
中秋節過後1周,指數上漲機率高達80%,漲幅約1.4%。其中出現「變盤」情況出現6次,
分別在2004年、2008年、2011年、2013年、2015年、2016年,均是由「跌」變「漲」。
華南投顧董事長儲祥生表示,若從過去經驗來看,若股市漲多,中秋後變盤機率大,這波
美股從高點漲多拉回約10%,電子股表現較弱,台股也受到拖累,投資人要留意產業基本
面以及美股表現。
產業面來看,華為禁令升級確定後,廠商趕在8、9月出貨,後續可能會走弱,另外筆電先
前出貨強勁,但後續可能會有趨緩現象,股市在中秋前後震盪,邊走邊看,建議投資人操
作上,漲多股票勿追,低價電子類股例如IC設計等,產業有表現的可逢低布局。
統一投顧董事長黎方國認為,9月變數包括FOMC會議、9月29日拜登跟川普第1次總統辯論
、華為禁令到期、TikTok是否遭禁等,短線指數陷入震盪,一旦受到利空消息走跌,10月
之後有機會反彈,加上中秋節是中國國慶,也會帶動內需。
雖然9月指數陷入震盪,但市場資金充沛,加上景氣翻揚,現在疫情影響已經慢慢削弱,
明年成長力道強勁,企業獲利提升,中
長線仍是樂觀看待。他建議投資人,多空因素拉鋸採取中性持股,看盤勢發展而定。
第一金投顧董事長陳奕光表示,對台股後市看法樂觀,有5大原因:首先,美國選舉行情
,台股與美股輪動,過去美國股市來看,美國首長連任會漲在選前,跌在選後,近期川普
聲勢走升,因此在11月3日美國大選前,都有續漲空間。
第2,國安基金還未退場,代表對指數看法維持樂觀,政府與8大官股依舊偏多操作。第3
,權值股台積電、聯電、電子五哥等公布8月營收亮眼,估計第3季財報有機會創下歷史次
高。
第4,台幣表現強勢,資金行情持續。第5,華為禁令、去美化問題等,消費者拒買華為手
機,轉買其他品牌,但台灣仍是手機品牌主要供應鏈,一消一長下業績不受影響,反倒會
受惠遠距需求,帶動手機、筆電、電視機換機潮。
整體來說,現階段台股陷入整理,但有利多消息加持,投資人不需要擔心,不預設高點,
指數有機會攻上13000點,下檔12400點有撐。(林彤婕/台北報導)
更新:調整內文
發稿:09:30
更新:14:05
https://tw.appledaily.com/property/20201002/NXAYEB4NEBG6RDH3UCNOBNPEHY/
這個講法如何?大家怎麼看?
川普確診長期對台股走向是好是壞?
要是他在選前痊癒了會怎樣呢?
--
2小時前
美國總統川普在中秋連假期間確診武漢肺炎,讓道瓊期指一度下殺500點,這使得過去中
秋節變盤之說,再度興起,股市名師萬寶投顧董事長朱成志說:「這下台股真旳要變盤啦
!」朱成志說,台股在節前跌5點,就破底形成M頭,靠的就是半導體當救命仙丹,節後台
股若要期待能吃仙丹奔月,就只能靠一招,就是美國真正開始制裁中芯半導體。
朱成志分析,川普確診對台股而言,還不如對川普自身選情的影響,現在市場普遍認為節
後區間震盪的機率最大,尤其節前差5點就破底,真的讓市場心驚驚,而在收假前,台股
能免於破底,其實靠的就是半導體這顆救命仙丹,朱成志認為,節後若真要變盤向上,只
能靠一招,就是美國發出公文,真正制裁中芯,這將使得高通、博通等大單,不是轉向三
星,就是轉向台灣,接下來半導體可望走漲價行情。
法人分析,目前中芯有4座12吋廠、3座8吋廠,一旦遭到美國正式制裁,對國內半導體而
言,將是一大利多,指數可望像吃仙丹奔月一般,帶動台股再攻一波。
台股今年7月衝破13000點歷史高點,隨後拉回在12000點左右高檔震盪,市場擔心今年恐
怕出現「中秋節變盤」,對此專家認為,台股長多面臨修正,且接近11月份美國總統大選
,變數仍多,但市場資金熱錢仍在,看好台股上有壓下有撐,變數消化之後指數仍有上攻
的機會。
觀察過去15年中秋節前後表現,中秋節前1周指數上漲機率僅47%,平均跌幅約0.5%,然而
中秋節過後1周,指數上漲機率高達80%,漲幅約1.4%。其中出現「變盤」情況出現6次,
分別在2004年、2008年、2011年、2013年、2015年、2016年,均是由「跌」變「漲」。
華南投顧董事長儲祥生表示,若從過去經驗來看,若股市漲多,中秋後變盤機率大,這波
美股從高點漲多拉回約10%,電子股表現較弱,台股也受到拖累,投資人要留意產業基本
面以及美股表現。
產業面來看,華為禁令升級確定後,廠商趕在8、9月出貨,後續可能會走弱,另外筆電先
前出貨強勁,但後續可能會有趨緩現象,股市在中秋前後震盪,邊走邊看,建議投資人操
作上,漲多股票勿追,低價電子類股例如IC設計等,產業有表現的可逢低布局。
統一投顧董事長黎方國認為,9月變數包括FOMC會議、9月29日拜登跟川普第1次總統辯論
、華為禁令到期、TikTok是否遭禁等,短線指數陷入震盪,一旦受到利空消息走跌,10月
之後有機會反彈,加上中秋節是中國國慶,也會帶動內需。
雖然9月指數陷入震盪,但市場資金充沛,加上景氣翻揚,現在疫情影響已經慢慢削弱,
明年成長力道強勁,企業獲利提升,中
長線仍是樂觀看待。他建議投資人,多空因素拉鋸採取中性持股,看盤勢發展而定。
第一金投顧董事長陳奕光表示,對台股後市看法樂觀,有5大原因:首先,美國選舉行情
,台股與美股輪動,過去美國股市來看,美國首長連任會漲在選前,跌在選後,近期川普
聲勢走升,因此在11月3日美國大選前,都有續漲空間。
第2,國安基金還未退場,代表對指數看法維持樂觀,政府與8大官股依舊偏多操作。第3
,權值股台積電、聯電、電子五哥等公布8月營收亮眼,估計第3季財報有機會創下歷史次
高。
第4,台幣表現強勢,資金行情持續。第5,華為禁令、去美化問題等,消費者拒買華為手
機,轉買其他品牌,但台灣仍是手機品牌主要供應鏈,一消一長下業績不受影響,反倒會
受惠遠距需求,帶動手機、筆電、電視機換機潮。
整體來說,現階段台股陷入整理,但有利多消息加持,投資人不需要擔心,不預設高點,
指數有機會攻上13000點,下檔12400點有撐。(林彤婕/台北報導)
更新:調整內文
發稿:09:30
更新:14:05
https://tw.appledaily.com/property/20201002/NXAYEB4NEBG6RDH3UCNOBNPEHY/
這個講法如何?大家怎麼看?
川普確診長期對台股走向是好是壞?
要是他在選前痊癒了會怎樣呢?
--
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