川普在玩囚徒困境? - 股票

By Vanessa
at 2018-10-20T12:57
at 2018-10-20T12:57
Table of Contents
以下擷取自wiki百科
囚徒困境(英語:Prisoner's Dilemma)是博弈論的非零和博弈中具代表性的例子,反映
個人最佳選擇並非團體最佳選擇。
經濟學例子:關稅戰
兩個國家,在關稅上可以有以下兩個選擇:
提高關稅,以保護自己的商品。(背叛)
與對方達成關稅協定,降低關稅以利各自商品流通。(合作)
當一國因某些因素不遵守關稅協定,而獨自提高關稅(背叛)時,另一國也會作出同樣反
應(亦背叛),這就引發了關稅戰,兩國的商品失去了對方的市場,對本身經濟也造成損
害(共同背叛的結果)。然後二國又重新達成關稅協定。(重複博弈的結果是將發現共同
合作利益最大。)
結論:
1.如果中國在理性的情況下,條約重新談判,結果關稅一定是美國贏不爽就不要進口!
2.如果中國在不理性情況下亂開戰,美國可能會贏
所以在投資方向感覺美國好像有那麼一點勝算
川普真的是個狡猾商人,鷹派真硬
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