專家:武漢肺炎對中國經濟衝擊甚於貿易戰 - 股票
By Callum
at 2020-01-25T23:20
at 2020-01-25T23:20
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
※過長無法點擊者必須縮網址
https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/20/1/25/n11819799.htm
2.原文內容:
專家:武漢肺炎對中國經濟衝擊甚於貿易戰
武漢新型肺炎在大陸各地蔓延,有美國經濟學者表示,武漢肺炎對於中國是比美國加徵關
稅更嚴峻的挑戰。
截至25日10:30,中國確診1330例,死亡41例。疑似1965例。治愈38例。目前中國僅西藏
未傳疫情、湖北15市封城、多省市啟動公衛事件1級響應。武漢新型肺炎也向海外蔓延,
目前台灣、泰國、新加坡、越南、韓國、日本、美國、尼泊爾、法國都出現確診病例。英
國、意大利、芬蘭、菲律賓出現疑似病例。世界衛生組織(WHO)警告,引發疫情的新型
冠狀病毒可能「持續人傳人」。
據中央社報導,花旗(Citi)全球首席經濟學家曼恩(Catherine L. Mann)近日在美國
智庫外交關係協會(CFR)世界經濟情勢座談會上表示,中國是大型封閉經濟體,代表經
濟受國內政策影響遠大於外在因子;與政治與美國加徵關稅等外在因素相比,武漢肺炎可
能構成更大挑戰。
她說,中國面臨債務問題,一年多前致力去槓桿,減少金融業弱點。美中貿易戰爆發後,
中國為穩住經濟大局,將減少金融業弱點變成次要目標。如今,武漢肺炎成為擾亂金融市
場的「黑天鵝」。
對於大陸疫情對經濟的潛在影響,國際投行野村證券也向市場發出了警告。
據香港東網消息,野村證券發表報告說,根據以往的經驗,於2002至2003年薩斯(SARS)
期間,大陸服務業受到的打擊最大。隨著中國新年假期臨近,武漢肺炎的疫情可能在未來
幾個月內惡化,目前疫情的發展仍處於早期階段,死亡率可能被低估,因為現時尚無有效
的疫苗,提醒投資者要留意對經濟和金融市場的風險。
報告表示,當年的薩斯疫情是從2002年11月開始,在2003年3至5月之間急劇惡化,受到該
病毒的影響,中國的實質經濟增長(GDP)從2003年第一季的11.1%,下降至第二季的9.1%
,下降2個百分點。當中主要受到兩大產業的拖累,包括運輸、倉儲和郵政,以及酒店和
餐飲服務。它們的增長率分別從2003年第一季的7.7和11%,下降至2003年第二季的2.3和
7.4%。
另外,國際評級夠標準普爾也認為疫情導致大陸家庭減少支出對經濟衝擊很大。而且一旦
避險情緒升溫及金融狀況收緊都有機會加大對經濟的衝擊,包括對投資的影響。
中共官方數據顯示,2019年大陸消費支出占經濟增長的貢獻率達58%,如果消費市場大幅
停頓,將嚴重影響經濟增長狀況。
3.心得/評論:
※必需填寫滿20字
受益的防疫概念股很多人提了
受害最大的 服務業觀光業 運輸倉儲酒店餐飲
台股中在中國有投資相關產業的公司要注意風險
--
--
※過長無法點擊者必須縮網址
https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/20/1/25/n11819799.htm
2.原文內容:
專家:武漢肺炎對中國經濟衝擊甚於貿易戰
武漢新型肺炎在大陸各地蔓延,有美國經濟學者表示,武漢肺炎對於中國是比美國加徵關
稅更嚴峻的挑戰。
截至25日10:30,中國確診1330例,死亡41例。疑似1965例。治愈38例。目前中國僅西藏
未傳疫情、湖北15市封城、多省市啟動公衛事件1級響應。武漢新型肺炎也向海外蔓延,
目前台灣、泰國、新加坡、越南、韓國、日本、美國、尼泊爾、法國都出現確診病例。英
國、意大利、芬蘭、菲律賓出現疑似病例。世界衛生組織(WHO)警告,引發疫情的新型
冠狀病毒可能「持續人傳人」。
據中央社報導,花旗(Citi)全球首席經濟學家曼恩(Catherine L. Mann)近日在美國
智庫外交關係協會(CFR)世界經濟情勢座談會上表示,中國是大型封閉經濟體,代表經
濟受國內政策影響遠大於外在因子;與政治與美國加徵關稅等外在因素相比,武漢肺炎可
能構成更大挑戰。
她說,中國面臨債務問題,一年多前致力去槓桿,減少金融業弱點。美中貿易戰爆發後,
中國為穩住經濟大局,將減少金融業弱點變成次要目標。如今,武漢肺炎成為擾亂金融市
場的「黑天鵝」。
對於大陸疫情對經濟的潛在影響,國際投行野村證券也向市場發出了警告。
據香港東網消息,野村證券發表報告說,根據以往的經驗,於2002至2003年薩斯(SARS)
期間,大陸服務業受到的打擊最大。隨著中國新年假期臨近,武漢肺炎的疫情可能在未來
幾個月內惡化,目前疫情的發展仍處於早期階段,死亡率可能被低估,因為現時尚無有效
的疫苗,提醒投資者要留意對經濟和金融市場的風險。
報告表示,當年的薩斯疫情是從2002年11月開始,在2003年3至5月之間急劇惡化,受到該
病毒的影響,中國的實質經濟增長(GDP)從2003年第一季的11.1%,下降至第二季的9.1%
,下降2個百分點。當中主要受到兩大產業的拖累,包括運輸、倉儲和郵政,以及酒店和
餐飲服務。它們的增長率分別從2003年第一季的7.7和11%,下降至2003年第二季的2.3和
7.4%。
另外,國際評級夠標準普爾也認為疫情導致大陸家庭減少支出對經濟衝擊很大。而且一旦
避險情緒升溫及金融狀況收緊都有機會加大對經濟的衝擊,包括對投資的影響。
中共官方數據顯示,2019年大陸消費支出占經濟增長的貢獻率達58%,如果消費市場大幅
停頓,將嚴重影響經濟增長狀況。
3.心得/評論:
※必需填寫滿20字
受益的防疫概念股很多人提了
受害最大的 服務業觀光業 運輸倉儲酒店餐飲
台股中在中國有投資相關產業的公司要注意風險
--
--
Tags:
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