大陸金融學者分析:中國經濟還能撐多久 - 股票

By Agatha
at 2018-08-19T12:00
at 2018-08-19T12:00
Table of Contents
一直說中國經濟不好直接就會打的可以參考兩個例子
1.中越戰爭後來俄羅斯在北邊駐軍,後來中越就不了了之
2.最近的中印戰爭大張旗鼓,最後以丟石子結束
美國只要讓各國(俄越印)駐軍邊境不用出兵,中國就很難全力打台灣了
更別提戰爭開始的一個月前至少各國要撤僑,外資也要撤出,中國/美國推測也都會有消息傳出
中國也要開始換匯買武器或者原料生產,還有儲備戰略用油
然後有人就會說美國不會幫台灣出兵
這的確是這樣,但在商言商,中國現在自己內部市場不開放又要多拿台灣,美國損失的是什麼
1.美日安保以及美國對第一第二島鏈周遭國家承諾保障的信用,這個信用從二戰後累積到現在,信用多難建立大家應該都知道,特別是國際上
2.台灣海峽水域的控制權
https://i.imgur.com/GQYnsxl.png
(東亞商船實況圖)
不過這邊單論經濟的就好,美國可以反制的可能幾個
1.美債是否還要繼續償還,你都不守信用開戰,如果美國宣戰不出兵也可以取消吧,沒美債的擔保,人民幣值多少錢
2.美國市場的制裁,之前就對俄羅斯做過
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*QfRg6t7-VvJRskz8NI-oWA.jpeg
都打仗還開放市場讓你賺完錢來打台灣,美國又不是被虐狂,不讓你賺也是合理
3.中國打下台灣幾個點
i.台灣戰略地位
ii.台灣的資金
iii.半導體的技術取得
但除了取得i,都打仗了
對於ii,台幣以及台灣購買的美債還能生效嗎
對於iii,美國是否可以封鎖對台積的機台進口以及技術支援,如果EDA Tool以及ARM比授權,聯發科以及其他產業要如何生產東西
4.台灣的產業以及債券評等美國也可以調整
5.戰略資源管控
i.石油
ii.糧食
這兩個不是有錢就買得到,就像黃豆也是
美國不出兵打仗,也是有其他方法
而且又不是打完台灣就結束了
開戰前的一年到後面三年的經濟可能才是影響的地方
俄羅斯、歐盟會不會救,看交情以及條件了
還是打算靠伊朗、土耳其來挽救中國經濟
不過如果真的打應該是日韓/東南亞賺到,畢竟原本台灣在世界供應鏈的缺口就可以讓這兩個國家補上
不知大家想法如何
※ 引述《sinana ( )》之銘言:
: 其實對岸經濟崩盤了
: 台灣經濟才真正危險
: 1.台灣經濟投資對岸金額非常之大
: 2.中共近30年維持獨裁政權的正當性 就是靠經濟成長
: 一旦經濟崩盤 就只能靠民族主義維持正當性
: 台灣靠那麼近(地理上) 很可能就是第一個出頭鳥
: 2016年 歐巴馬:衰落的中國比崛起中國更可怕
: 一個人若吃好穿好住豪宅不缺錢 去搶銀行機率很低
: 一個人若窮得連明天太陽都看不到 搶銀行機率大大提升
-----
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--
1.中越戰爭後來俄羅斯在北邊駐軍,後來中越就不了了之
2.最近的中印戰爭大張旗鼓,最後以丟石子結束
美國只要讓各國(俄越印)駐軍邊境不用出兵,中國就很難全力打台灣了
更別提戰爭開始的一個月前至少各國要撤僑,外資也要撤出,中國/美國推測也都會有消息傳出
中國也要開始換匯買武器或者原料生產,還有儲備戰略用油
然後有人就會說美國不會幫台灣出兵
這的確是這樣,但在商言商,中國現在自己內部市場不開放又要多拿台灣,美國損失的是什麼
1.美日安保以及美國對第一第二島鏈周遭國家承諾保障的信用,這個信用從二戰後累積到現在,信用多難建立大家應該都知道,特別是國際上
2.台灣海峽水域的控制權
https://i.imgur.com/GQYnsxl.png
(東亞商船實況圖)
不過這邊單論經濟的就好,美國可以反制的可能幾個
1.美債是否還要繼續償還,你都不守信用開戰,如果美國宣戰不出兵也可以取消吧,沒美債的擔保,人民幣值多少錢
2.美國市場的制裁,之前就對俄羅斯做過
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*QfRg6t7-VvJRskz8NI-oWA.jpeg

3.中國打下台灣幾個點
i.台灣戰略地位
ii.台灣的資金
iii.半導體的技術取得
但除了取得i,都打仗了
對於ii,台幣以及台灣購買的美債還能生效嗎
對於iii,美國是否可以封鎖對台積的機台進口以及技術支援,如果EDA Tool以及ARM比授權,聯發科以及其他產業要如何生產東西
4.台灣的產業以及債券評等美國也可以調整
5.戰略資源管控
i.石油
ii.糧食
這兩個不是有錢就買得到,就像黃豆也是
美國不出兵打仗,也是有其他方法
而且又不是打完台灣就結束了
開戰前的一年到後面三年的經濟可能才是影響的地方
俄羅斯、歐盟會不會救,看交情以及條件了
還是打算靠伊朗、土耳其來挽救中國經濟
不過如果真的打應該是日韓/東南亞賺到,畢竟原本台灣在世界供應鏈的缺口就可以讓這兩個國家補上
不知大家想法如何
※ 引述《sinana ( )》之銘言:
: 其實對岸經濟崩盤了
: 台灣經濟才真正危險
: 1.台灣經濟投資對岸金額非常之大
: 2.中共近30年維持獨裁政權的正當性 就是靠經濟成長
: 一旦經濟崩盤 就只能靠民族主義維持正當性
: 台灣靠那麼近(地理上) 很可能就是第一個出頭鳥
: 2016年 歐巴馬:衰落的中國比崛起中國更可怕
: 一個人若吃好穿好住豪宅不缺錢 去搶銀行機率很低
: 一個人若窮得連明天太陽都看不到 搶銀行機率大大提升
-----
Sent from JPTT on my Sony G8142.
--
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