大規模失業潮即將爆發 - 股票

By Ursula
at 2020-03-19T05:04
at 2020-03-19T05:04
Table of Contents
失業潮會有的拉.
但,傳染病這種東西,是時期性的.
因此,比較會快速燃燒再快速熄滅.
對比當年網路泡沫,或是甚麼底特律汽車產業練崩毀.
(那個是供給超越需求...)
狀況還是差很多.
so.你要知道,傳染病衝擊最大的是服務業.
這種東西大多都是末梢產業.
就像雜草這樣,一群野牛跑過去,被踩死的最多就是雜草.
但是這種東西,死了一大片之後,過兩天來看,又從新生長了一大堆.
so...死亡快,但是新誕生也快.
相對比其他產業結構性崩毀,生產過剩導致整個產業鏈連鎖倒閉.
性質差很多.
而世界維持在低利率+非常寬鬆.
更是刺激著這些雜草的新生能力.
你想,傳染病讓這個社區本來三家簡餐店倒了兩家.
但是這社區的人口需求本來就可以支撐3家簡餐店.
而借錢利率又很低,銀行又釋出一大堆創業貸款方案.
請問當疫情過去後,會不會有其他人跑去再開兩家簡餐來吃回這個市場.
會阿....
畢竟服務業這種東西,又不是甚麼大工廠批地蓋工廠到營運.
要幾十億幾百億,要花三年才可以開始運轉.
因此回到最原始的.
當你需求就是那樣...單純因為疫情而收縮造成供給衰退..
可是當疫情結束,需求又回來之後...
這些供給就會死灰復燃,又一個個冒出來了.
而越低的利率+越寬鬆(銀行放款的限制被解放),這個復燃速度就越快.
so....這又何苦去煩惱世界末日呢??
因此我一直認為,這是時期性的經濟衰退.
股票會這麼刺激
則..更多的是,之前因為低利吹出來的泡沫(你看看股票,這兩年是怎樣亂噴的)
在這次恐慌的時候又快速收縮掉罷了.
(你看,美股也不過跌到川普上任時的價碼)
這兩年股票可以這樣瘋狂的飆升,那今天有這麼一個恐慌,縮回去應該剛好而已.
至於說,因為大量失業,大量末端的零售業服務業造成金融連帶性崩毀災難.
燒到銀行掛點,燒到更基礎的各種製造業也崩潰的狀況.
這種我認為需要更龐大的壓力和前提才可能產生.
例如恐慌維持很久很久,一年兩年...
並且伴隨大型事件,例如哪幾個大國家軍事幹起來..
又或者是外星人來攻打地球之類的.
才會真正傷到今天世界經濟的根.
畢竟,現在利率那麼低,資金周轉壓力那麼低...
而人民需求的縮減也還只是疫情暫時性,並且還有特定性.
(你手機更換再快也不可能三四個月換一隻吧,更多人都嘛是一兩年才換一次)
(另外,外面疫情風雨飄搖,你還是可以網購買衣服買家電用品)
因此只要需求不死,供給沒有失衡.
對於長期而言,應該都不用太害怕甚麼.
疫情消耗掉的一些經濟損失,在低利狀態下,這個世界應該都是消費得起的.
so...我個人認為,這次疫情之後復甦速度應該會很快.
並且疫情造就更龐大的寬鬆,所以當結束後,之後甚至可能會產生讓各位更爽的股票數據.
恐慌的時候,現金為王.空手至上.
但是當疫情過去後,誰手上有鈔票誰倒楣...!!
--
但,傳染病這種東西,是時期性的.
因此,比較會快速燃燒再快速熄滅.
對比當年網路泡沫,或是甚麼底特律汽車產業練崩毀.
(那個是供給超越需求...)
狀況還是差很多.
so.你要知道,傳染病衝擊最大的是服務業.
這種東西大多都是末梢產業.
就像雜草這樣,一群野牛跑過去,被踩死的最多就是雜草.
但是這種東西,死了一大片之後,過兩天來看,又從新生長了一大堆.
so...死亡快,但是新誕生也快.
相對比其他產業結構性崩毀,生產過剩導致整個產業鏈連鎖倒閉.
性質差很多.
而世界維持在低利率+非常寬鬆.
更是刺激著這些雜草的新生能力.
你想,傳染病讓這個社區本來三家簡餐店倒了兩家.
但是這社區的人口需求本來就可以支撐3家簡餐店.
而借錢利率又很低,銀行又釋出一大堆創業貸款方案.
請問當疫情過去後,會不會有其他人跑去再開兩家簡餐來吃回這個市場.
會阿....
畢竟服務業這種東西,又不是甚麼大工廠批地蓋工廠到營運.
要幾十億幾百億,要花三年才可以開始運轉.
因此回到最原始的.
當你需求就是那樣...單純因為疫情而收縮造成供給衰退..
可是當疫情結束,需求又回來之後...
這些供給就會死灰復燃,又一個個冒出來了.
而越低的利率+越寬鬆(銀行放款的限制被解放),這個復燃速度就越快.
so....這又何苦去煩惱世界末日呢??
因此我一直認為,這是時期性的經濟衰退.
股票會這麼刺激
則..更多的是,之前因為低利吹出來的泡沫(你看看股票,這兩年是怎樣亂噴的)
在這次恐慌的時候又快速收縮掉罷了.
(你看,美股也不過跌到川普上任時的價碼)
這兩年股票可以這樣瘋狂的飆升,那今天有這麼一個恐慌,縮回去應該剛好而已.
至於說,因為大量失業,大量末端的零售業服務業造成金融連帶性崩毀災難.
燒到銀行掛點,燒到更基礎的各種製造業也崩潰的狀況.
這種我認為需要更龐大的壓力和前提才可能產生.
例如恐慌維持很久很久,一年兩年...
並且伴隨大型事件,例如哪幾個大國家軍事幹起來..
又或者是外星人來攻打地球之類的.
才會真正傷到今天世界經濟的根.
畢竟,現在利率那麼低,資金周轉壓力那麼低...
而人民需求的縮減也還只是疫情暫時性,並且還有特定性.
(你手機更換再快也不可能三四個月換一隻吧,更多人都嘛是一兩年才換一次)
(另外,外面疫情風雨飄搖,你還是可以網購買衣服買家電用品)
因此只要需求不死,供給沒有失衡.
對於長期而言,應該都不用太害怕甚麼.
疫情消耗掉的一些經濟損失,在低利狀態下,這個世界應該都是消費得起的.
so...我個人認為,這次疫情之後復甦速度應該會很快.
並且疫情造就更龐大的寬鬆,所以當結束後,之後甚至可能會產生讓各位更爽的股票數據.
恐慌的時候,現金為王.空手至上.
但是當疫情過去後,誰手上有鈔票誰倒楣...!!
--
Tags:
股票
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