大規模失業潮即將爆發 - 股票
By Olivia
at 2020-03-19T02:05
at 2020-03-19T02:05
Table of Contents
這次疫情 對服務業的衝擊遠比製造業直接
尤其和觀光旅遊產業和吸引顧客聚集的產業越接近的傷的越重
從最直接的旅行社 航運 遊樂園 電影院 商展 體育賽事
到間接的餐飲 禮品 運輸 醫療(非重症).....
無論是歐美或是台灣 服務業是最主要的僱用勞工產業
如今各國封閉國境 國際觀光直接進入冰凍期
各國許多大型活動 賽事 展覽都取消
很多籌備多個月甚至一年的成本都丟到水裡去了
餐廳 商店 娛樂場所現在人潮都不如過去
尤其是原本熱鬧的地方 許多人更是避免前往
但這些地方往往也是店租最貴的地方
有些店面 只要營收降低10% 可能就會虧損
更何況很多原本熱鬧聚點的人潮早已降30%以上
如今海外觀光客會直接消失 更是雪上加霜
所以很多店面 可能這兩周就會決定先收起來
同樣的情況在歐美許多地方也會發生
更糟的是 許多店面或第一線的服務人員 經濟狀況也是較差的一群
在這種情況下要靠積蓄撐上幾個月 恐怕會是大問題
(歐美成年人平均積蓄更少 美國家庭存款中位數只有1.17萬美元)
過去除了美國經濟大蕭條外
後來各年代的金融風暴恐怕都沒能產生現在這麼大規模的全球失業潮
(全球服務業從業人口也達到前所未有的規模)
當這麼多人突然失業 消費自然也會受到嚴重影響
進一步造成製造業也產生衰退 產生第二波裁員潮
而且只要疫情還在擴散 就算降低利息或發放消費券之類的措施
效果還是有限 因為人們會越來越不想出門
有人會說那可以靠電商 網購
但很多商品和服務 還是要靠人們出門才會拉高更高的消費額
舉例來說 如果不能出門逛街 參加聚會
那很多服飾消費也會降低 (因為不少人是為了給別人看 才買更好的服飾)
電商 網購的消費金額會增加 但遠補不上實體店面消失的消費金額
很多巨額的消費 也是在集體活動下才會產生
多數人失業後的健康和免疫狀態也都會降低不少
而且生活也會陷入緊張
如果人數一多 社會上很多層面也會跟著不安穩
這樣的情況加上疫情 會更加的不穩定
下個月 許多國家 失業率 採購經理人指數恐怕都會很難看
而且這個數字應該會遠比亞洲金融風暴 網路泡沫 金融海嘯期間還糟
已開發國家受影響 開發中國家的原物料 產品自然也賣不掉
這些地區如果大量青年人失業 很容易就會陷入內戰 或是恐怖主義藉機崛起
很多區域恐怕也會因此陷入更大的動盪
--------
這次的崩跌很可怕
原本以為起跌段中後還會有幾次千點反彈可操作
(昨天買了call 今天對折抬出場)
但現在看起來是直接崩到主跌段了......
所有的Put都貴的不可思議
只能忍著牙買了30口很貴很貴的 04月 8500P
看看能不能在主跌段初期 再賺一點點回來
------
三月下半 全世界疫情 經濟 政治三種風暴即將匯集
這次主跌段恐怕會比08年還慘烈.....
--
尤其和觀光旅遊產業和吸引顧客聚集的產業越接近的傷的越重
從最直接的旅行社 航運 遊樂園 電影院 商展 體育賽事
到間接的餐飲 禮品 運輸 醫療(非重症).....
無論是歐美或是台灣 服務業是最主要的僱用勞工產業
如今各國封閉國境 國際觀光直接進入冰凍期
各國許多大型活動 賽事 展覽都取消
很多籌備多個月甚至一年的成本都丟到水裡去了
餐廳 商店 娛樂場所現在人潮都不如過去
尤其是原本熱鬧的地方 許多人更是避免前往
但這些地方往往也是店租最貴的地方
有些店面 只要營收降低10% 可能就會虧損
更何況很多原本熱鬧聚點的人潮早已降30%以上
如今海外觀光客會直接消失 更是雪上加霜
所以很多店面 可能這兩周就會決定先收起來
同樣的情況在歐美許多地方也會發生
更糟的是 許多店面或第一線的服務人員 經濟狀況也是較差的一群
在這種情況下要靠積蓄撐上幾個月 恐怕會是大問題
(歐美成年人平均積蓄更少 美國家庭存款中位數只有1.17萬美元)
過去除了美國經濟大蕭條外
後來各年代的金融風暴恐怕都沒能產生現在這麼大規模的全球失業潮
(全球服務業從業人口也達到前所未有的規模)
當這麼多人突然失業 消費自然也會受到嚴重影響
進一步造成製造業也產生衰退 產生第二波裁員潮
而且只要疫情還在擴散 就算降低利息或發放消費券之類的措施
效果還是有限 因為人們會越來越不想出門
有人會說那可以靠電商 網購
但很多商品和服務 還是要靠人們出門才會拉高更高的消費額
舉例來說 如果不能出門逛街 參加聚會
那很多服飾消費也會降低 (因為不少人是為了給別人看 才買更好的服飾)
電商 網購的消費金額會增加 但遠補不上實體店面消失的消費金額
很多巨額的消費 也是在集體活動下才會產生
多數人失業後的健康和免疫狀態也都會降低不少
而且生活也會陷入緊張
如果人數一多 社會上很多層面也會跟著不安穩
這樣的情況加上疫情 會更加的不穩定
下個月 許多國家 失業率 採購經理人指數恐怕都會很難看
而且這個數字應該會遠比亞洲金融風暴 網路泡沫 金融海嘯期間還糟
已開發國家受影響 開發中國家的原物料 產品自然也賣不掉
這些地區如果大量青年人失業 很容易就會陷入內戰 或是恐怖主義藉機崛起
很多區域恐怕也會因此陷入更大的動盪
--------
這次的崩跌很可怕
原本以為起跌段中後還會有幾次千點反彈可操作
(昨天買了call 今天對折抬出場)
但現在看起來是直接崩到主跌段了......
所有的Put都貴的不可思議
只能忍著牙買了30口很貴很貴的 04月 8500P
看看能不能在主跌段初期 再賺一點點回來
------
三月下半 全世界疫情 經濟 政治三種風暴即將匯集
這次主跌段恐怕會比08年還慘烈.....
--
Tags:
股票
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at 2021-06-18T01:31
By Emma
at 2021-06-21T14:11
at 2021-06-21T14:11
By Linda
at 2021-06-21T22:39
at 2021-06-21T22:39
By Selena
at 2021-06-22T01:20
at 2021-06-22T01:20
By Mia
at 2021-06-23T15:31
at 2021-06-23T15:31
By Caitlin
at 2021-06-28T09:24
at 2021-06-28T09:24
By Edith
at 2021-06-30T17:04
at 2021-06-30T17:04
By Frederica
at 2021-07-02T00:50
at 2021-07-02T00:50
By Gilbert
at 2021-07-02T03:36
at 2021-07-02T03:36
By Jessica
at 2021-07-06T00:11
at 2021-07-06T00:11
By Damian
at 2021-07-09T04:59
at 2021-07-09T04:59
By Vanessa
at 2021-07-09T15:04
at 2021-07-09T15:04
By Barb Cronin
at 2021-07-11T15:04
at 2021-07-11T15:04
By Emily
at 2021-07-12T11:26
at 2021-07-12T11:26
By Genevieve
at 2021-07-13T22:44
at 2021-07-13T22:44
By Caitlin
at 2021-07-18T11:40
at 2021-07-18T11:40
By Linda
at 2021-07-21T20:10
at 2021-07-21T20:10
By Mary
at 2021-07-26T06:18
at 2021-07-26T06:18
By Enid
at 2021-07-26T11:23
at 2021-07-26T11:23
By Kristin
at 2021-07-30T13:56
at 2021-07-30T13:56
By Cara
at 2021-08-01T19:41
at 2021-08-01T19:41
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at 2021-08-02T00:57
at 2021-08-02T00:57
By Annie
at 2021-08-04T03:45
at 2021-08-04T03:45
By Tom
at 2021-08-06T06:29
at 2021-08-06T06:29
By Hedda
at 2021-08-06T19:13
at 2021-08-06T19:13
By Elvira
at 2021-08-11T05:05
at 2021-08-11T05:05
By Wallis
at 2021-08-14T20:34
at 2021-08-14T20:34
By Charlotte
at 2021-08-19T20:10
at 2021-08-19T20:10
By Yedda
at 2021-08-22T18:08
at 2021-08-22T18:08
By Tom
at 2021-08-22T23:49
at 2021-08-22T23:49
By Kumar
at 2021-08-27T02:08
at 2021-08-27T02:08
By Audriana
at 2021-08-27T14:41
at 2021-08-27T14:41
By Edith
at 2021-08-31T16:36
at 2021-08-31T16:36
By Adele
at 2021-09-05T06:31
at 2021-09-05T06:31
By Erin
at 2021-09-08T13:45
at 2021-09-08T13:45
By Dorothy
at 2021-09-13T07:36
at 2021-09-13T07:36
By Hamiltion
at 2021-09-15T06:17
at 2021-09-15T06:17
By Hedwig
at 2021-09-19T02:31
at 2021-09-19T02:31
By Ingrid
at 2021-09-21T18:02
at 2021-09-21T18:02
By Agnes
at 2021-09-26T01:41
at 2021-09-26T01:41
By Hazel
at 2021-09-27T11:20
at 2021-09-27T11:20
By Sierra Rose
at 2021-09-30T03:15
at 2021-09-30T03:15
By Queena
at 2021-10-03T10:10
at 2021-10-03T10:10
By Ingrid
at 2021-10-06T22:49
at 2021-10-06T22:49
By Hamiltion
at 2021-10-10T06:49
at 2021-10-10T06:49
By Puput
at 2021-10-11T22:03
at 2021-10-11T22:03
By Daph Bay
at 2021-10-13T11:12
at 2021-10-13T11:12
By Carolina Franco
at 2021-10-16T13:03
at 2021-10-16T13:03
By Hedda
at 2021-10-16T20:43
at 2021-10-16T20:43
By Eartha
at 2021-10-18T05:36
at 2021-10-18T05:36
By Zanna
at 2021-10-20T18:39
at 2021-10-20T18:39
By Rosalind
at 2021-10-21T13:20
at 2021-10-21T13:20
By Necoo
at 2021-10-24T19:43
at 2021-10-24T19:43
By Edith
at 2021-10-28T18:54
at 2021-10-28T18:54
By Oliver
at 2021-10-29T10:05
at 2021-10-29T10:05
By Selena
at 2021-10-31T02:05
at 2021-10-31T02:05
By Liam
at 2021-11-01T12:30
at 2021-11-01T12:30
By William
at 2021-11-03T14:09
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By Belly
at 2021-11-07T22:50
at 2021-11-07T22:50
By Caroline
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By Ivy
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at 2021-11-11T01:34
By Mia
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By Caroline
at 2021-11-13T13:55
at 2021-11-13T13:55
By Michael
at 2021-11-16T19:21
at 2021-11-16T19:21
By Genevieve
at 2021-11-19T18:20
at 2021-11-19T18:20
By Kama
at 2021-11-22T01:07
at 2021-11-22T01:07
By Rebecca
at 2021-11-26T20:00
at 2021-11-26T20:00
By Valerie
at 2021-11-27T19:51
at 2021-11-27T19:51
By Joseph
at 2021-12-02T11:28
at 2021-12-02T11:28
By Edwina
at 2021-12-06T09:37
at 2021-12-06T09:37
By Eartha
at 2021-12-07T04:53
at 2021-12-07T04:53
By Delia
at 2021-12-09T13:24
at 2021-12-09T13:24
By Margaret
at 2021-12-09T14:37
at 2021-12-09T14:37
By Delia
at 2021-12-10T07:12
at 2021-12-10T07:12
By Gary
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By Gilbert
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at 2021-12-15T15:46
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at 2021-12-18T21:27
at 2021-12-18T21:27
By Tom
at 2021-12-21T22:30
at 2021-12-21T22:30
By Eartha
at 2021-12-23T01:38
at 2021-12-23T01:38
By Eartha
at 2021-12-24T10:07
at 2021-12-24T10:07
By Elizabeth
at 2021-12-27T14:45
at 2021-12-27T14:45
By Jacky
at 2021-12-27T16:54
at 2021-12-27T16:54
By Todd Johnson
at 2021-12-31T22:06
at 2021-12-31T22:06
By Queena
at 2022-01-02T01:25
at 2022-01-02T01:25
By Charlotte
at 2022-01-06T17:41
at 2022-01-06T17:41
By Jake
at 2022-01-08T15:34
at 2022-01-08T15:34
By Frederica
at 2022-01-13T08:01
at 2022-01-13T08:01
By Bethany
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at 2022-01-14T18:09
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at 2022-01-17T17:51
at 2022-01-17T17:51
By Hamiltion
at 2022-01-19T22:13
at 2022-01-19T22:13
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at 2022-01-24T21:45
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at 2022-01-30T06:30
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at 2022-02-05T21:04
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at 2022-02-07T10:54
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at 2022-02-11T20:55
at 2022-02-11T20:55
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at 2022-02-15T08:54
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By Quanna
at 2022-02-19T00:21
at 2022-02-19T00:21
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at 2022-02-22T03:40
at 2022-02-22T03:40
By Jessica
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at 2022-02-26T18:09
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at 2022-03-04T02:49
By Doris
at 2022-03-04T17:42
at 2022-03-04T17:42
By Valerie
at 2022-03-04T23:57
at 2022-03-04T23:57
By Doris
at 2022-03-08T17:46
at 2022-03-08T17:46
By Rae
at 2022-03-09T16:31
at 2022-03-09T16:31
By Susan
at 2022-03-13T17:08
at 2022-03-13T17:08
By Sarah
at 2022-03-18T15:42
at 2022-03-18T15:42
By Gary
at 2022-03-18T18:52
at 2022-03-18T18:52
By Andy
at 2022-03-19T09:34
at 2022-03-19T09:34
By Ina
at 2022-03-24T00:37
at 2022-03-24T00:37
By Cara
at 2022-03-24T09:50
at 2022-03-24T09:50
By Bennie
at 2022-03-24T21:47
at 2022-03-24T21:47
By Emma
at 2022-03-29T09:44
at 2022-03-29T09:44
By Valerie
at 2022-03-30T23:40
at 2022-03-30T23:40
By Ida
at 2022-04-01T14:33
at 2022-04-01T14:33
By Catherine
at 2022-04-01T19:15
at 2022-04-01T19:15
By Ina
at 2022-04-03T06:53
at 2022-04-03T06:53
By Anthony
at 2022-04-07T11:45
at 2022-04-07T11:45
By Donna
at 2022-04-08T21:18
at 2022-04-08T21:18
By Hedda
at 2022-04-12T09:38
at 2022-04-12T09:38
By Jake
at 2022-04-15T00:36
at 2022-04-15T00:36
By Callum
at 2022-04-19T13:13
at 2022-04-19T13:13
By Caitlin
at 2022-04-21T03:22
at 2022-04-21T03:22
By Ida
at 2022-04-21T12:29
at 2022-04-21T12:29
By Dorothy
at 2022-04-25T23:20
at 2022-04-25T23:20
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-04-26T12:11
at 2022-04-26T12:11
By Leila
at 2022-04-29T09:11
at 2022-04-29T09:11
By Megan
at 2022-05-03T18:32
at 2022-05-03T18:32
By Megan
at 2022-05-07T07:35
at 2022-05-07T07:35
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at 2022-05-09T05:52
at 2022-05-09T05:52
By Hardy
at 2022-05-09T07:39
at 2022-05-09T07:39
By Rae
at 2022-05-10T18:34
at 2022-05-10T18:34
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at 2022-05-14T01:17
at 2022-05-14T01:17
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at 2022-05-16T07:32
at 2022-05-16T07:32
By Zenobia
at 2022-05-20T03:18
at 2022-05-20T03:18
By Dora
at 2022-05-20T04:54
at 2022-05-20T04:54
By Leila
at 2022-05-24T22:21
at 2022-05-24T22:21
By Daniel
at 2022-05-26T12:03
at 2022-05-26T12:03
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-05-26T14:00
at 2022-05-26T14:00
By Jack
at 2022-05-27T20:30
at 2022-05-27T20:30
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at 2022-05-30T01:23
at 2022-05-30T01:23
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at 2022-05-31T06:23
at 2022-05-31T06:23
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By Irma
at 2022-06-04T01:22
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at 2022-06-07T17:56
at 2022-06-07T17:56
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at 2022-06-11T16:08
at 2022-06-11T16:08
By Jessica
at 2022-06-15T18:41
at 2022-06-15T18:41
By Dinah
at 2022-06-19T14:03
at 2022-06-19T14:03
By Irma
at 2022-06-23T19:25
at 2022-06-23T19:25
By Agatha
at 2022-06-27T19:56
at 2022-06-27T19:56
By Edith
at 2022-06-30T04:00
at 2022-06-30T04:00
By Damian
at 2022-07-03T15:37
at 2022-07-03T15:37
By Harry
at 2022-07-08T04:17
at 2022-07-08T04:17
By Caitlin
at 2022-07-13T01:42
at 2022-07-13T01:42
By Robert
at 2022-07-16T01:24
at 2022-07-16T01:24
By Vanessa
at 2022-07-18T18:14
at 2022-07-18T18:14
By Irma
at 2022-07-19T18:50
at 2022-07-19T18:50
By Kristin
at 2022-07-20T23:01
at 2022-07-20T23:01
By Caroline
at 2022-07-21T03:26
at 2022-07-21T03:26
By Edith
at 2022-07-21T23:17
at 2022-07-21T23:17
By Yedda
at 2022-07-24T11:27
at 2022-07-24T11:27
By Candice
at 2022-07-29T09:09
at 2022-07-29T09:09
By Olivia
at 2022-07-31T14:34
at 2022-07-31T14:34
By Andrew
at 2022-08-01T01:59
at 2022-08-01T01:59
By Rae
at 2022-08-04T02:54
at 2022-08-04T02:54
By Sarah
at 2022-08-05T10:51
at 2022-08-05T10:51
By Belly
at 2022-08-09T13:52
at 2022-08-09T13:52
By Tom
at 2022-08-12T00:13
at 2022-08-12T00:13
By Noah
at 2022-08-13T23:25
at 2022-08-13T23:25
By Andy
at 2022-08-18T02:07
at 2022-08-18T02:07
By Daniel
at 2022-08-21T02:16
at 2022-08-21T02:16
By Damian
at 2022-08-23T14:50
at 2022-08-23T14:50
By Emma
at 2022-08-28T00:37
at 2022-08-28T00:37
By Regina
at 2022-08-29T05:04
at 2022-08-29T05:04
By Charlie
at 2022-08-29T22:38
at 2022-08-29T22:38
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at 2022-09-01T19:52
at 2022-09-01T19:52
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