大空頭終於要來了嗎? - 股票

By Daph Bay
at 2020-03-12T07:12
at 2020-03-12T07:12
Table of Contents
大家很喜歡拿歷史來類比 特別是Sars跟2008金融海嘯 不過實際上完全是兩碼子事
1.
因為SARS當時很快結束,只有一季是負成長,後來的每一季都非常高,突然出現「V型反
轉」,讓大家都覺得是誤會一場。但這次武漢肺炎,不只是中國、台灣,還有鄰近亞洲國
家,甚至連歐洲都受到影響
2.
2008及2009的衰退大致上是「需求衝擊」(demand shock),當時銀行接近崩潰,房價大
跌,突然間,民眾及企業可花用的錢少了,將經濟推入衰退。
但新冠病毒的威脅是「供應衝擊」(supply shock),可把「供應衝擊」想成「突然間每
個工廠和辦公室的產量都比去年少了10%」。
這種情況遠比「需求衝擊」更難應付,因為僅僅是把更多錢放到民眾的口袋,無法彌補商
店關閉、工廠停工、旅遊行程取消這些事實。
這也是為什麼大家對未來悲觀 因為依據現在的經濟情勢來看
QE (大撒幣) 降息 (台灣快到負利率了) 這兩個武器現在作用甚微了
跟大家分享一下 下面連結 共勉之
震驚期貨界十大悲情真實爆倉跳樓事件!令人毛骨悚然以此引以為鑑
網址: https://kknews.cc/invest/jlkkzqy.html
引述《ifromtaiwan ()》之銘言:
: 不好意思
: 小的又來了
: 距離上次熊市 要來了 嗎
: 的發文也半年有之
: 沒想到 天時地利人合啊
: 來了個CV什麼ID 19的肺炎
: 但小的還是不太有把握
: 到底,以現在的情況
: 熊市己經來了嗎?
: 看來流行病也和股市一樣
: 有個周期呢
: SARS的高峰期約2002-2003,小的還記憶猶新
: 當年不懂事,在2000大選前一片看漲聲中進場
: 一套就套了9年呢
: 484, 和現在這個模式,很像呢?
: 我484可以放心地,等待最低點進場了呢?
: 當年有個傳說,0050 50以下可買
: 但都10幾20年了,物換星移,也多了不少股王
: 484要微調至60左右即可進場怖局?
: 謝謝各位先進的指點
: 本人不會抄短線
: 想在最低點時抱0050抱到高點前賣光光
: 還請各位高人的保貴意見
: ※ 引述《ifromtaiwan ()》之銘言:
: : 大家好
: : 數月前, 川普還很乖時
: : 本魯在本版發表了一文
: : 大空頭要來了嗎
: : 可惜誤觸版規
: : 這次有好好看過版規
: : 仍是不甚瞭解, 只能向老天起願
: : 這次發的文, 能好好留在本版
: : 本魯有一次去某家銀行時
: : 看到了一片強壁上的超大歷年走勢圖表
: : 約8-10年一循環, 從台灣股市開工以來
: : 履試不爽
: : 2000年大空頭來也
: : 2009年大多頭起身
: : 2019年的今天, 似乎
: : 沒川普也該大空頭了吧?
: : 本魯無暇研究個股OR技術線
: : 只認得0050
: : 現在做空還來的及嗎?
: : 還是, 等空頭到谷底時
: : (本人大膽預測為2025年)
: : 再默默進場?
: : 還請各位大大先進指教給意見
: : 小的不甚感激
: : 本魯發自內心誠心請教
: : 請各位先進大大給點中肯實在的建言
--
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