大盤 - 股票
By Yuri
at 2020-01-29T01:21
at 2020-01-29T01:21
Table of Contents
1. 標的:大盤
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得:空/中期修正當心下探
3. 分析/正文:之前大盤高檔整理即已提到這次的情況已與以往走強多時不一樣,
外資非但在現期貨未見大力偏多,反倒在選擇權還不斷增加買進賣權,
非電子偏向強勢,電子股卻是相對較弱,反而一些過去的指標股愈來愈多走軟,
這也是為什麼我在那個時候對盤勢轉而戒慎,建議減碼到50%以下甚至針對部分走弱股
或台50反一放空避險的緣故
股市中若只是日線級數的拉回不可怕,頂多拉回月線附近就會反彈重回多頭軌跡,
就算追高套牢也不會套很久,但若是週線級數的呢? 依照以往經驗週線級數的修正
往往至少打到半年線,極端一點打到年線才止穩都有可能,大部分的股票
都難逃一定程度的跌幅,弱勢股的跌幅更可以達到30%-50%以上,
投資金融市場假如沒有適時出場的停利機制,就算之前買點捉得對,
很可能在一次波段空頭中就回吐所有獲利甚或反盈為虧,這點是必須有的認知
由於武漢肺炎擴大,對於經濟變數增加,加以國際股市在台股休市期普遍大跌,
台積電ADR與摩台指亦未倖免,若無意外紅盤日開低收低跌破11980多空分界點
應可預見,前低11777與季線失守機率亦非常高,預期這波下修有可能持續到二月中後,
高點下來幅度可能達到700點以上,投資人務必小心
4. 進退場機制(長期投資者,必須有停損機制):11980一破,持股建議減到30%以下,
只留少數績優股或偏強股,另外可放空弱勢股或買台50反1避險,
在止穩訊號未出現前,或跌幅未達滿足前,不宜隨意偏多進場.
轉弱點(多單退出點):11980
波段跌幅參考點:11400
空單停損參考點:12200
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Tags:
股票
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