大盤 - 股票
By Olive
at 2018-04-08T12:49
at 2018-04-08T12:49
Table of Contents
1. 標的:大盤
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得:中性偏空,留意風險與避險
3. 分析/正文:這兩年來,我很少對台股看得如此保守小心,
但是這次必須要特別強調持股者務必要有風險意識.
從2015年8月低點以來,台股已經走多兩年半,今年1月底出現11270的高點拉回後,
儘管目前處於高檔整理,但是二月初的連續大跌曾經跌破年線與半年低點,
VIX在反彈過程中一直沒有走下緩和,月KD高檔交叉往下,
所有短中長期均線也開始呈現走平糾結,高檔出現這樣狀況,
這在技術面型態的理論上可以說是相當糟糕,如果再把籌碼面打開來看的話,
這幾天的量能每天大概只有1100多億,外資也泰半站在賣方,期貨避險需求也還在增加,
反倒是融資餘額不斷增加,除非籌碼迅速轉強(類似外資期現貨連續偏多)
否則要化解11000以上的套牢力道著實不足,就連國際股市包括美股亞股歐股也都偏弱,
台股近期相對抗跌與股東會融券強制回補不無關連,惟強制回補已進入尾聲,
接下來會不會補跌就要特別注意了.
總之,11150成功站上,才有辦法完全化險為夷,化解往下大幅修正的疑慮,
否則高檔久盤不上累積的往下能量會相當可觀,10600有效跌破,
回探10189甚至跌破萬點機率都會升高許多,就算在經濟尚能成長下,
這波不會演變成跌幅超過20%的空頭市場,不過若是修正個15%,
很多股票的災情都會相當慘重
4. 進退場機制:危機未解前,現階段不建議樂觀偏多,建議逐步出脫持股,
僅保留少許強勢股與績優龍頭股,最好不要超過40%,如跌破10600,
則應再快速減碼至20%以下,或可買台50反一與放空弱勢股避險.
進場點:隨時
停損參考點:大盤突破11400時
停利參考點:第一道10280以下,大波段萬點以下
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Tags:
股票
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