外資:台積電爆發力在明年 - 股票

By Freda
at 2018-06-28T08:24
at 2018-06-28T08:24
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://goo.gl/CYWixT
2.原文內容:
https://imgur.com/9G93IQn.jpg
國際資金不斷提款台股,導致台積電(2330)貼息壓力未除,現在市場更將矛頭直指第3
季營運力道偏弱,摩根士丹利證券半導體產業分析師詹家鴻指出,台積電下季營收年增雙
位數目標,恐難達成,摩根大通、麥格理證券也紛紛下修財務預期。
最大權值股台積電是台系半導體最重要指標,除息前夕,外資圈就曾點出三大疑慮:國
際資金態度、加密貨幣需求變化、第3季營運表現,這些擔憂「不幸地」均反映在股價壓
力上。
摩根大通證券半導體分析師哈戈谷(Gokul Hariharan)持續擁護台積電,惟略將推測
股價由270下修至260元,他認為,台積電第3季營收季增約僅有8%,但這就是台積電明年
超旺之前,市場最後一輪下修。
麥格理證券半導體產業分析師廖光河建議將眼光放遠,7奈米製程是台積電長多利器,
不僅客戶更分散,營運比重也擺脫智慧機控制,吃下更多高效能運算(HPC)新應用。
凱基投顧半導體產業分析師江培嘉同樣認為,台積電明年在7奈米製程上,龍頭地位將
展露無疑,股價短線壓力,只是反映今年營收有下修風險。
至於摩根士丹利證券半導體研究團隊由詹家鴻領軍,上半年多次力排眾議,要市場留心
加密貨幣挖礦需求續航力,乃至點出市場對台積電營運預期太高的風險,現在看來頗為精
準。
詹家鴻指出,根據產業調查,台積電7奈米製程的良率還在改善當中,意味著蘋果最新
的應用處理器,得拖延到8月才會大量出貨,此外,加密貨幣價格下挫,挖礦用GPU與ASIC
需求同受影響,待台積電召開法說會公布第2季業績,市場調整對台積電預期後,再來考
量是否進場承接,是較佳策略。
不難發現,「長期看多、中期謹慎」是外資圈對台積電基本面的主流意見,但仍要留意
,國際資金近期對台股持續大舉調節,台積電首當其衝,雖屬非戰之罪,依舊成為台積電
股價壓力來源。
正因為國際資金調節的侵擾,贊同外資券商長線偏多看法的機構法人,短期並無明顯搶
進動作,多抱持觀望心態,寧可確定籌碼逆風消除再進場。 不過,由於台積電除息後連
日下跌,現在的報酬風險比更具吸引力,分析師不諱言,不少客戶最近都在商討進場時機
,只是什麼價位進場,尚無定論。
3.心得/評論:
(1) 長期看多、中期謹慎」是外資圈對台積電基本面的主流意見。
(2) 各種存股族不用擔心,台積電在2019年會有大爆發的成長,逢低布局正是時候。
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