國巨陳泰銘:村田擴產不影響目前供需 - 股票

By Eden
at 2018-06-11T18:42
at 2018-06-11T18:42
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
※過長無法點擊者必須縮網址
http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20180611003183-260410
2.原文內容:
日廠村田日前宣布擴產是否影響MLCC供需?對此,國巨(2327)董事長陳泰銘表示,目前
MLCC供需失衡是產業結構的調整,日系廠商退出的產品很多是同業做不到的,而村田擴產
主要針對車用,且從蓋廠到完成,預估到2020年以後,不會影響目前供需狀況,預估未來
MLCC會維持一個相對合理的價格;國巨的策略是鞏固中高階傳統型產品優勢,並與日廠策
略相同往車用、工規等產品及模組化技術高階產品技術布局,透過購併普思電子及公開收
購君耀-KY(6422),讓國巨在車用及工規布局更為完整,提升國際競爭力及在歐美客戶的
市占率。
國巨在今天下午舉行線上法說會,由國巨董事長陳泰銘及總經理張綺雯親自以中英文方式
回答法人線上提問,針對目前市場供需狀況、MLCC價格能否維持、村田擴產、國巨中長期
產品布局策略、公司庫存狀況等,陳泰銘及張綺雯均一一詳細說明。
陳泰銘表示,目前MLCC價格是7年前的水準,客戶過去幾年來都是以每年約15%到20%來降
價,在價格過低下,導致很多廠商不願擴產,甚至退出生產,且現在機器設備有些交期長
達18個月,新產能擴充速度趕不上,MLCC供需失衡是一個產業結構的調整,加上日系廠商
退出的產品技術上很多是同業做不到的,只有國巨可以吃到95%的缺口,短期甚至到中長
期還是會維持這樣關係,預估未來MLCC的價格會維持一個相對合理的價格。
村田日前宣布擴產,市場擔憂是否將導致MLCC供需反轉?對此,陳泰銘表示,村田策略與
國巨一致,擴產主要是針對車用,且村田從蓋廠到完成預估到2020年以後,就算村田擴產
後增加20%車用產能,也是落後市場需求,不會影響到目前供需狀況。
村田等日系大廠紛紛退出傳統型MLCC產品,將產能轉向車用及工規等高階產品,陳泰銘表
示,日廠通知客戶部分品項接單至2019年3月,2020年3月停產,預估未來兩年約有20%到
25%品項產品逐漸釋出,日廠釋出這些中大型及高容品項等產品不是沒有技術門檻,而是
因為沒獲利,這些產品約有95%國巨可以順利承接下來,目前國巨已接到世界各地客戶要
求承接日廠釋出的產品,公司將持續把有限產能效益極大化,以滿足客戶需求為優先,解
決他們的需求。
陳泰銘表示,國巨策略與日廠不一樣,國巨的策略是鞏固中高階傳統型產品優勢,並與日
廠策略相同往車用、工規等產品及模組化技術高階產品技術布局,透過購併普思電子及公
開收購君耀-KY,讓國巨在車用及工規布局更為完整,提升國際競爭力及在歐美客戶的市
占率。
針對部分客戶因為MLCC缺貨改設計,陳泰銘指出,改設計是技術問題,透過減低功能、耐
溫等,希望可以降低20%到30%的MLCC使用量,但運作上困難,以手機為例,手機一直以增
加功能來吸引消費者,應該不會為減少MLCC使用量而減少手機功能;至於因為缺貨將0402
改用0201,約有20%消費性產品可以做到功能性取代,但這有PCB板認證問題,信賴性問題
能否被解決仍有疑慮,因為缺貨而改設計的機率不大。
陳泰銘表示,國巨一直專注在高階、高毛利、高單價車用及工規產品,成本相對較高,存
貨金額也較高,2017年第1季公司存貨一直往下掉,存貨約39天,如果扣掉運送到客戶途
中或在庫存品甚至只剩下26天,今年第1季週轉天數是54天,扣除運送到客戶途中及公司
倉庫成品週轉天數約35天,離合理庫存55天到60天還很遠,目前B/B值都大於3,因為供不
應求及存貨偏低,對客戶服務變得非常差,內部希望把成品週轉天數拉升,讓週轉天數拉
到45天,以滿足客戶需求。
3.心得/評論:
※必需填寫滿20字
雖然沒有提到我最關心的財務長為啥請辭
但是對於未來營運目標算是明確
5月eps估計12塊
6月晶片電阻再漲70%
不敢想像6月營收多強
--
理性勿 , 戰
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