回憶1987大崩盤 - 股票

By Yedda
at 2017-10-04T00:22
at 2017-10-04T00:22
Table of Contents
分析大盤,要盡量有「系統性」的思考,大盤終究會反映到經濟
要注意所謂影響大盤的「主力」到底是什麼,才能真正掌握大盤的均線走勢。
1. 三大法人每日佔台股約 30% 的交易量,尤其是外資成交值最大,他是主力。
過去一年多來外資買了幾千億,因此短線上可以由外資動向判斷多空
九月外資明顯由多轉空,狂倒百億,目前還沒有收手的表現,因此個人持短空態度
2. 台股組成以 tsmc、鴻海等權值股領頭,
只要 tsmc 是上漲的就幾乎可以確認大盤也是上漲。
要分析大盤,亦可先從這些權值股的股價趨勢先研究
像是台灣 50 中蘋概股佔了多數,因此 iphone8 開賣後的買氣顯著影響了台股。
短線上的消息會反應個一兩天後,大盤仍會照計畫走,畢竟台股反映的是台灣的基本面
尤其台灣許多人有萬點心理障礙,一到萬點就加碼空,結果被嘎到外太空
大盤要盡量以系統性思考,而不是靠感覺,8000 點就一堆人喊高點了
另外有用的指標則是國發會的「景氣對策信號及分數」
雖然台股是領先指標,但當台股大漲或大跌時,景氣對策信號反而是很重要的參考值
因為那是真實景氣數據,大盤反而受到消息與主力的影響波動,
大盤趨勢本應該與景氣呈正比才是,若台股大跌後景氣信號仍綠燈,則跌幅有限
以最近的盤來分析,景氣信號綠燈,應屬多頭
但外資狂倒貨,空頭警訊;好消息是散戶成交比例創高
以九月來看,外資狂到,但跌幅居然不大,因此短線上建議可以先觀望外資,
等到外資每日買賣超開始明顯轉多後,會有另一波多頭
以上
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