台股頻創新高 華爾街日報示警居高思危 - 股票

By Hedy
at 2021-01-09T13:16
at 2021-01-09T13:16
Table of Contents
台股頻創新高 華爾街日報示警居高思危
https://0rz.tw/SxlAm
新高 華爾街日報示警居高思危
2
中央社
中央社
2021年1月9日 週六 上午8:55 [GMT+8]·2 分鐘 (閱讀時間)
(中央社記者尹俊傑紐約2021年1月8日專電)疫情陰影籠罩全球,多國股市卻在熱錢帶動
下屢創歷史新高,包括台股。華爾街日報今天點名台灣、韓國、印度是股市表現「也許太
猛」的國家,資金與題材面充滿不確定性。
去年春季,全球股市一度隨2019冠狀病毒疾病(COVID-19,武漢肺炎)疫情惡化劇烈回檔
。美股隨後在財政與貨幣刺激支撐下迅速反彈,亞股過去幾個月跟上,如今,MSCI明晟新
興市場指數過去一年表現已和MSCI明晟美國指數並駕齊驅。
其中,台股與韓股一年來表現更勝美股。自去年初以來,台灣加權股價指數大漲28.9%,
韓股Kospi指數飆漲43.4%;相較之下,美股標準普爾500指數同期漲幅為18.4%。
這篇分析指印度股市漲勢最令人匪夷所思。以美元計價,標普孟買Sensex指數同期漲幅和
標普500指數不相上下,印度以貨幣與財政政策支撐經濟的能力卻遠遠比不上美國。
上述國家股市暢旺背後都有利多支撐:台灣防疫嚴密,韓國確診病例數低,印度將是全球
首批施打疫苗的開發中國家之一。但文章警告,亞洲這幾國股市泡沫已達「極高水準」,
令人憂心。
文章表示,這場傳染病大流行終將結束,當前利多不見得會轉變為結構性利空,但亞洲新
興市場股市表現突然間遠勝於美股、日股的原因卻不清楚。美股迅猛反彈力道令人吃驚,
背後是投資人無視疫情期間企業獲利慘澹,而將眼光放到疫後復甦。
美元疲弱讓營收主要以其他貨幣計價、或承擔美元計價債務者的日子過得更輕鬆,但匯率
效應不足以解釋上述幾國股市近期為何猛漲。
令人擔憂的跡象同時浮現:韓國散戶瘋狂進場買股,過去一週交易量暴增;印度股市過去
一年靠外資撐盤,資金行情恐無以為繼。
文末寫道:「與這類漲勢作對沒有道理,特別是散戶買盤熱絡的情況下。但投資人應留意
『無基之彈』。一旦市場敘事改變,亞洲好幾國股市看起來受創可能最深。」(編輯:馮
昭)
3.心得/評論: 台股太猛 原本才看好今年有機會挑戰16000
沒想到1月沒幾天就快達標了 連華爾街日報都點名了 棒
--
https://0rz.tw/SxlAm
新高 華爾街日報示警居高思危
2
中央社
中央社
2021年1月9日 週六 上午8:55 [GMT+8]·2 分鐘 (閱讀時間)
(中央社記者尹俊傑紐約2021年1月8日專電)疫情陰影籠罩全球,多國股市卻在熱錢帶動
下屢創歷史新高,包括台股。華爾街日報今天點名台灣、韓國、印度是股市表現「也許太
猛」的國家,資金與題材面充滿不確定性。
去年春季,全球股市一度隨2019冠狀病毒疾病(COVID-19,武漢肺炎)疫情惡化劇烈回檔
。美股隨後在財政與貨幣刺激支撐下迅速反彈,亞股過去幾個月跟上,如今,MSCI明晟新
興市場指數過去一年表現已和MSCI明晟美國指數並駕齊驅。
其中,台股與韓股一年來表現更勝美股。自去年初以來,台灣加權股價指數大漲28.9%,
韓股Kospi指數飆漲43.4%;相較之下,美股標準普爾500指數同期漲幅為18.4%。
這篇分析指印度股市漲勢最令人匪夷所思。以美元計價,標普孟買Sensex指數同期漲幅和
標普500指數不相上下,印度以貨幣與財政政策支撐經濟的能力卻遠遠比不上美國。
上述國家股市暢旺背後都有利多支撐:台灣防疫嚴密,韓國確診病例數低,印度將是全球
首批施打疫苗的開發中國家之一。但文章警告,亞洲這幾國股市泡沫已達「極高水準」,
令人憂心。
文章表示,這場傳染病大流行終將結束,當前利多不見得會轉變為結構性利空,但亞洲新
興市場股市表現突然間遠勝於美股、日股的原因卻不清楚。美股迅猛反彈力道令人吃驚,
背後是投資人無視疫情期間企業獲利慘澹,而將眼光放到疫後復甦。
美元疲弱讓營收主要以其他貨幣計價、或承擔美元計價債務者的日子過得更輕鬆,但匯率
效應不足以解釋上述幾國股市近期為何猛漲。
令人擔憂的跡象同時浮現:韓國散戶瘋狂進場買股,過去一週交易量暴增;印度股市過去
一年靠外資撐盤,資金行情恐無以為繼。
文末寫道:「與這類漲勢作對沒有道理,特別是散戶買盤熱絡的情況下。但投資人應留意
『無基之彈』。一旦市場敘事改變,亞洲好幾國股市看起來受創可能最深。」(編輯:馮
昭)
3.心得/評論: 台股太猛 原本才看好今年有機會挑戰16000
沒想到1月沒幾天就快達標了 連華爾街日報都點名了 棒
--
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