台積電600不破有救星? 他爆這天決生死 - 股票
By Tom
at 2021-03-17T20:25
at 2021-03-17T20:25
Table of Contents
原文標題:台積電600不破有救星? 他爆這天決生死
(請勿刪減原文標題)
原文連結:https://ctee.com.tw/insights/431303.html
(請善用縮網址工具)
發布時間:2021.03.17
(請以原文網頁/報紙之發布時間為準)
原文內容:工商時報 數位編輯
編按:台積電17日除息2.5元,由於現金殖利率僅有1.6%,外資沒有意願參與除息,終場
股價大跌7元,收在604元,陷入嚴重貼息的窘境。
從上個月以來,美國公債10年期殖利率快速攀升,給全球股市帶來「美債風暴」,台股也
從16,579點回測到15,636點,回跌逼近千點,也讓很多成長型的股票,遭受到嚴重的拋售
,形成與美國10年期公債殖利率相互比較的壓力,所以現在的選股策略,「配息」將決定
一切!台積電近期這麼弱勢,就是這個原因!
美國10年期公債殖利率,最新已經站上1.62%,依照外資預測,今年會往2%邁進。所以
現在的股票,殖利率如果沒有2%以上,就不足以吸引強勁的買盤,股價可能會不進不退
,陷入長時間的盤整。
今 (17)日台塑董事會決議擬配息2.4元,創6年來的新低,殖利率約2.37%,以高殖利
率的標準,顯然是不及格的,股價呈現漲多拉回。而同樣在17日宣布股利的華碩,擬配股
利26元,以今天的收盤價325.5元算,殖利率高達8%,這兩天的股價就往上創新高,所以
配息決定一切,就是現在選股的主流出發點。
所以台積電如果要走強,重點就是看今年第一季的獲利EPS,將會發多少股利出來,按照
經驗,台積電董事會召開股東會日期會在5月中旬前,到時將是台股最重要的新聞焦點。
筆者大膽預估首季將配息超過2.5元,如果能夠配發3元,一年也就是12元,那股價600元
站穩往上絕對沒問題,因為殖利率有2%就不怕在今年跟美債比較,而且台積電還在高速
成長期,600元就會有強勁的支撐。
如果超乎預期,台積電配息能超過3元,若配發3.5元,一年預估14元,那股價會很快往
700元邁進,因為14元股利除以700元股價,殖利率剛好也是2%,代表700元以下的台積電
太便宜,股價當然會更強的漲上來,所以「配息」將決定一切!台積電只要保有2%的股
利殖利率,股價就有機會漲上去,所以現在依然可以樂觀看待!(中時新聞網 吳美觀)
(本文作者為摩爾投顧投資長郭哲榮)
※免責聲明:本文為分析師個人觀點,非任何投資建議與參考,請自行審慎判斷評估風險
。
心得/評論:配息多寡確實是決定股價的一個因素之一,但是台積電已經開這麼大手筆的
資本支出了,短時間要增加配息似乎沒這麼簡單,不過時間拉長後,台積電新廠蓋好,新
的產能加入後,股利確實有機會慢慢增加,但是短期內,應該還是會維持在每季發2.5元
一段時間吧。
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