台積電19日登場 大摩推演三情境 - 股票
By Puput
at 2018-04-17T16:33
at 2018-04-17T16:33
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5607/3091333
2.原文內容:
台積電19日召開法說會,摩根士丹利證券半導體產業分析師詹家鴻提出三情境,認為最樂
觀第2季營收成長1-5%,台積電股價挑戰首季波段266元高點,最悲觀衰退1-5%,提防股價
回測前低232.5元。
詹家鴻提出的三種情境,以台積電第2季展望為主軸,虛擬貨幣和智慧手機,是左右營運
的兩大支線。
詹家鴻指出,台積電法說會的第一種可能情境,是本季營收較上季成長1-5%,受惠挖礦需
求和手機拉貨,台積電一如共識,較上季成長,股價反應利多,可望挑戰今年第1季266元
高點,潛在漲幅9%。
第二種,是挖礦需求穩定,但手機市場遲緩復甦,台積電本季將大致持平上季營收,股價
持穩,在摩根士丹利目標價244元附近波動。
第三種,是挖礦需求削弱,手機動能也不如預期,則台積電單季營收恐衰退1-5%,股價最
差回測前低232.5元,潛在跌幅近5%。
詹家鴻認為,一、二、三種情境的發生機率,各為20%、30%、50%。目前摩根士丹利預估
,台積電本季營收將季減2%,與外資圈共識季增2%,差距約4個百分點,主因比特幣暴跌
至8,000美元以下,是摩根士丹利評估,多數挖礦者投入的關鍵價位,手機需求也相當疲
弱。
進一步觀察台積電3月營收,單月表現雖首創千億元紀錄,但受匯損侵蝕,台積電上季僅
達財測低標,也低於多數外資預期,詹家鴻在3月營收發布,最新觀點維持本季營運趨保
守看法,並認為上季毛利也將受匯損壓抑,降至50.8%。示警投資人留意修正風險。
摩根士丹利是外資圈保守看台積電代表,自去年底開第一槍,降評台積電至「中立」,今
年以來,摩根士丹利也僅給予244元目標價,為外資圈次低。其他外資雖審慎樂觀,預測
前三季逐季走升,不過近期外資對台積電確實賣多買少,究竟實況如何,立見分曉。
3.心得/評論:
三種可能 : 20% 30% 50%
禮拜四 開獎 !!
--
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