台積電 千萬多 - 股票
By George
at 2021-01-20T20:29
at 2021-01-20T20:29
Table of Contents
※ 引述《runislife (跑步)》之銘言:
: 1. 標的:2330 台積電
: 2. 分類:多
: 3. 分析/正文:
: 去年3月股災時,把所有others賣掉,全轉成2330
: 接著在6月時接觸了股票期貨,就將現股都轉為股票期貨
: 從本金約200萬左右,隨著台積成長順勢往上加碼,並且每月轉倉
: 直到今天剛好靠台積賺破千萬
: 已實現 http://i.imgur.com/zmlwUOY.jpg
: (夾雜了明泰跟亂跟風的長榮)
: 未實現 http://i.imgur.com/iVRvQDo.jpg
: 總裁魏哲家說過了,預估今年起至2025年,台積每年複合成長率將達10-15%
: 依台積財測常常失準的經驗(低估實際獲利),複合成長率有機會超過15%
: 如此一來,五年後EPS有可能達到40,依現在的股價還算便宜,但就要交給時間證明
: 4. 進退場機制:等先進製程走到2nm再考慮是否退場,否則就無限轉倉下去
看到留言有人說光聽到期貨就覺得可怕,覺得期貨就是開槓桿賭身家
本魯大概簡單幫期貨的風險闢謠一下
期貨的風險,完全掌握在投資者的手上,
槓桿要開多少,取決於妳自己
就以台積電期貨來說吧,
假設台積電02現在是650元
一口台積電期貨的保證金,就是650 * 1000 * 2 * 13.5% = 175500
650*1000 這就是一張台積電股票的價值
之所以 *2 是因為 一口 台積電期貨合約 = 2000股 (等於你有兩張650塊台積電的股票)
13.5 % 就是妳能用 13.5% 的價格, 去玩這個市值130萬的股票
當今天台積電漲了一塊 變成 651
妳去平倉,就賺了 1*2000 = 2000元
相對的,當今天跌一塊,妳就會虧損2000元
如果你今天是賺錢,那就沒事
但如果今天是虧錢,妳的保證金,就會變成175500-2000=173500
當你的保證金,被扣到剩下25%時,妳的券商就會把你強制平倉了
175500*0.25 = 43875
所以 (175500-43875)/2000 = 65.8125
等於你在650進場,當股票變成584.1875時,妳的期貨就會被平倉
那怎麼辦,簡單,把保證金補足就好
妳如果真的超怕,妳就準備130萬
這樣要跌到650*0.25 = 162.5才會被強制平倉
有人說期貨會有到期日期,但如果你篤定這張股票會漲,妳就去換倉啊
妳買在650,結果到期時剩600元,賠了50*2000 = 10萬
妳就再買下個月的合約,在600價格進去
如果你的眼光正確,他最後漲到了660 那妳就賺了 12 萬啦,
扣掉前面賠的,妳還是賺了2萬
(其實就跟650進,660出一樣的意思)
但記得扣掉中間的手續費跟交易稅
(期貨的交易費用較低,我個股期貨手續費30元)
但其實這個行為就是股票的凹單,妳就是賭他總有一天會漲
對於凹單這個行為,我相信大家都自己有自己的看法~~
玩期貨最可怕的是心態的調適啦
如果今天650跌到600,要換倉了
妳真的有那個勇氣繼續換倉嗎??
順道一提,期貨跟股票不同,期貨是零和遊戲
一口期貨,要有一多一空才會成立,如果你多一口,表示有人空了一口
妳今天賺到的錢,就是那個在650空的人賠的錢
妳賺的錢都是別人賠的,你賠掉的就是別人賺走的
妳能用多快的速度賺錢,就能用多快的速度賠錢
原po賺到1000萬的錢,其實是躺在一群人的屍體上
這是個成王敗寇,人吃人的戰場
以上,是我一個在期貨商上班的魯蛇一點介紹
股版首po,請鞭小力一點
--
: 1. 標的:2330 台積電
: 2. 分類:多
: 3. 分析/正文:
: 去年3月股災時,把所有others賣掉,全轉成2330
: 接著在6月時接觸了股票期貨,就將現股都轉為股票期貨
: 從本金約200萬左右,隨著台積成長順勢往上加碼,並且每月轉倉
: 直到今天剛好靠台積賺破千萬
: 已實現 http://i.imgur.com/zmlwUOY.jpg
: (夾雜了明泰跟亂跟風的長榮)
: 未實現 http://i.imgur.com/iVRvQDo.jpg
: 總裁魏哲家說過了,預估今年起至2025年,台積每年複合成長率將達10-15%
: 依台積財測常常失準的經驗(低估實際獲利),複合成長率有機會超過15%
: 如此一來,五年後EPS有可能達到40,依現在的股價還算便宜,但就要交給時間證明
: 4. 進退場機制:等先進製程走到2nm再考慮是否退場,否則就無限轉倉下去
看到留言有人說光聽到期貨就覺得可怕,覺得期貨就是開槓桿賭身家
本魯大概簡單幫期貨的風險闢謠一下
期貨的風險,完全掌握在投資者的手上,
槓桿要開多少,取決於妳自己
就以台積電期貨來說吧,
假設台積電02現在是650元
一口台積電期貨的保證金,就是650 * 1000 * 2 * 13.5% = 175500
650*1000 這就是一張台積電股票的價值
之所以 *2 是因為 一口 台積電期貨合約 = 2000股 (等於你有兩張650塊台積電的股票)
13.5 % 就是妳能用 13.5% 的價格, 去玩這個市值130萬的股票
當今天台積電漲了一塊 變成 651
妳去平倉,就賺了 1*2000 = 2000元
相對的,當今天跌一塊,妳就會虧損2000元
如果你今天是賺錢,那就沒事
但如果今天是虧錢,妳的保證金,就會變成175500-2000=173500
當你的保證金,被扣到剩下25%時,妳的券商就會把你強制平倉了
175500*0.25 = 43875
所以 (175500-43875)/2000 = 65.8125
等於你在650進場,當股票變成584.1875時,妳的期貨就會被平倉
那怎麼辦,簡單,把保證金補足就好
妳如果真的超怕,妳就準備130萬
這樣要跌到650*0.25 = 162.5才會被強制平倉
有人說期貨會有到期日期,但如果你篤定這張股票會漲,妳就去換倉啊
妳買在650,結果到期時剩600元,賠了50*2000 = 10萬
妳就再買下個月的合約,在600價格進去
如果你的眼光正確,他最後漲到了660 那妳就賺了 12 萬啦,
扣掉前面賠的,妳還是賺了2萬
(其實就跟650進,660出一樣的意思)
但記得扣掉中間的手續費跟交易稅
(期貨的交易費用較低,我個股期貨手續費30元)
但其實這個行為就是股票的凹單,妳就是賭他總有一天會漲
對於凹單這個行為,我相信大家都自己有自己的看法~~
玩期貨最可怕的是心態的調適啦
如果今天650跌到600,要換倉了
妳真的有那個勇氣繼續換倉嗎??
順道一提,期貨跟股票不同,期貨是零和遊戲
一口期貨,要有一多一空才會成立,如果你多一口,表示有人空了一口
妳今天賺到的錢,就是那個在650空的人賠的錢
妳賺的錢都是別人賠的,你賠掉的就是別人賺走的
妳能用多快的速度賺錢,就能用多快的速度賠錢
原po賺到1000萬的錢,其實是躺在一群人的屍體上
這是個成王敗寇,人吃人的戰場
以上,是我一個在期貨商上班的魯蛇一點介紹
股版首po,請鞭小力一點
--
Tags:
股票
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